Welcome to the NFC Championship player prop bets breakdown, which takes a close look at the most intriguing props for Sunday’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.
Props.com dives into some of the most popular props for the NFC Championship Game, while offering analysis that supports or strikes down a certain side. On top of that, we’ll take a look at some unique prop specials while hunting for the best possible prices across multiple sportsbooks.
Odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook, updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Jan. 27.
San Francisco 49ers: WR Deebo Samuel
The Prop: 51.5 Receiving yards
The Odds: Over -114/Under -114 (at FanDuel Sportsbook)
You have to love Samuel, even if you’re not a fan of the 49ers. He has been electric all season while serving a unique WR/RB hybrid role. Samuel certainly won some people over with his gritty play at Green Bay last weekend. A knee injury, bloody elbow, and frigid temperatures couldn’t stop him from gaining 83 total yards. Despite those recent ailments, Samuel is not listed on the injury report for this matchup with the Rams. Expect him to see his usual touches.
Samuel has not gone over this receiving yardage total in either playoff game. He went for 38 yards against the Cowboys and 44 yards at the Packers. However, we need to consider that Samuel flew past this 51.5-yard receiving mark four straight times to end the regular season. He averaged a whopping 94.25 yards per game over that span.
The game script should be on Samuel’s side. The 49ers are listed as a 3.5-point underdog, and there’s a chance San Francisco will encounter more passing situations this time around. Yes, QB Jimmy Garoppolo is difficult to trust, but he should be able to flick the ball to Samuel on short routes while allowing the playmaker to run after the catch.
Editor’s Note: Looking to bet on these NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets but don’t know where to start? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
San Francisco 49ers: RB Elijah Mitchell
The Prop: First Touchdown Scorer
The Odds: +900 (at BetMGM)
It really seems like BetMGM has the best odds on touchdown props. That has been the case throughout the season, and it has really shown up in the playoffs.
Looking at last week’s prop bets, we outlined Devin Singletary as a strong first touchdown scorer in the Buffalo-Kansas City game. He came through at +900 odds, and taking a similar strategy with Mitchell in the NFC Championship player prop bets market could merit the same result.
It’s no secret that San Francisco wants to run the football. The 49ers will try to play conservatively, not pushing their luck with Garoppolo taking shots downfield. That puts an emphasis on Mitchell, and the rookie responded two weeks ago with a sweet line against the Cowboys: 27 carries for 96 yards and a touchdown. And that score was the first TD of that contest.
Running on the Rams’ defense won’t be easy, but Mitchell could get a few cracks at the goal line. Here’s to hoping those opportunities come sooner than later.
Los Angeles Rams: RB Cam Akers
The Prop: 59.5 Rushing Yards
The Odds: Over -110/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
Akers came back from a torn Achilles injury just in time for the playoffs. He then ran for 55 yards on 17 carries against Arizona and 48 yards on 24 carries at Tampa Bay. Keep in mind that he lost two fumbles against the Buccaneers last week, and it almost cost Los Angeles a berth in the NFC Conference Championship.
Sean McVay has expressed confidence in Akers since then, but maybe those fumbles will creep into his mind at some point on Sunday. The Rams other running back, Sony Michel, hasn’t fumbled the ball in 15 straight games. In other words, it’s not too much of a stretch to think that Michel could take away some carries in situations where ball control is key.
The matchup doesn’t look great for Akers either. The 49ers have allowed the seventh-least rushing yards to running backs this season. San Francisco has given up 4.0 yards per carry this season, sixth-best in the NFL.
Add it all up, and it could be tough sledding for Akers. There’s some juice to the Under at BetMGM, but that side still seems worthy of serious consideration.
San Francisco 49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo
The Prop: 0.5 Interceptions
The Odds: Over -150/Under +115 (at FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is one of the most popular NFC Championship player prop bets. Wagering on Garoppolo to toss an interception seems like a smart move at first blush. However, we need to consider the juiced price of -150 to the Over.
The San Francisco quarterback has thrown an interception in 12 of his last 20 games, a 60-percent clip. Garoppolo also has the dubious stat of tossing at least one pick in each of his last four starts. That includes two interceptions at the Rams in Week 18, though the Niners rallied from a 17-3 deficit to win 27-24 in overtime.
The Rams’ defense snagged the third-most interceptions this season at 19, tied with the Bills and the Colts. Only the Cowboys (26) and Patriots (23) had more INTs than Los Angeles. Having All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey on your side doesn’t hurt either.
According to BetPrep, Garoppolo has thrown an interception in five of the last seven games in which the 49ers were underdogs. San Francisco is a 3.5 point ‘dog on Sunday. If the Niners fall behind in this game, then the probability of Garoppolo throwing a pick rises alongside his passing attempts.
San Francisco 49ers: TE George Kittle
The Prop: 52.5 Receiving Yards
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
Kittle has had a rollercoaster of a season. The sometimes erratic play of his quarterback has something to do with that. Also, Samuel’s emergence this season has sometimes left Kittle playing second fiddle among San Francisco pass catchers.
The 49ers tight end was on fire at the beginning of December, topping 93 yards in three straight games. Then the slump set in, as Kittle failed to go over 29 receiving yards in four straight contests.
Kittle got back on track last week at Green Bay, hauling in four receptions (six targets) for 63 yards. If you subscribe to the fact that All-Pro CB Ramsey will limit the outside receivers for San Francisco, then perhaps Kittle will see more targets, receptions, and yardage over the middle.
It’s worth noting that Kittle has averaged seven targets in two games against the Rams this season. If he sees that many looks on Sunday, then the Over could very much be in play for this option in the NFC Championship player prop bets market.