One of the surest bets against the spread (ATS) that I see for Week 1 is Baltimore -4 at Las Vegas.
This was already one I was gravitating towards just knowing the makeup of these teams, but the trends at Props.com pushed this over the edge for me. This is my favorite pick of the week.
Positive Trends Suggesting A Bet On Baltimore
Yes, Baltimore is on the road, but the minute I saw the spread at just -4, I jumped. Props.com only solidified that belief.
According to the site’s data, Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in their last six games, while Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in their last six.
The Ravens were spread darlings to wrap up the 2020 season, and in many ways, Baltimore is deeper and stronger in 2021.
Now they draw a Raiders team that ended 2020 on a skid and has roster holes throughout that suggest a tough year for the Black and Silver.
The Ravens also perform well on the road, quelling concerns about traveling west for Week 1. The Ravens are 12-2 on the road in their last 14 games, a truly impressive streak that should be extended on Monday Night.
Strong Offense Meets Weak Defense
Beyond the trends, Baltimore just matches up well against the Raiders. This Vegas defense was quite bad in 2020, and despite a few nice additions along their defensive line, the unit remains shaky heading into this season.
Baltimore is an elite rushing team, and while the loss of running back JK Dobbins for the season hurts, they have the depth (and Lamar Jackson) to overcome his absence.
What makes the Ravens scary this season is the additions they’ve made to their passing attack.
Finally, Jackson has some legitimate weapons at his disposal, and he should be able to pick apart a Raiders secondary that allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game last season.
The Ravens added Sammy Watkins in free agency and Rashod Bateman in the first round to join Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews as pass-catchers for Jackson.
I project a big year for Baltimore, and it starts on Monday Night Football, easily covering the 4-point spread. The Ravens were 11-7 ATS last season, good for the fourth-best mark in the league.
For more on NFL Week 1 and the rest of the season, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.