Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA betting props from Thursday’s slate of 11 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 23.
Houston Rockets At Indiana Pacers
The Prop: Pacers -3, first quarter
The Odds: Rockets -110/Pacers -110
For a Pick ‘Em proposition, the majority of evidence points to Indiana’s direction.
The Pacers are 4-1 for both straight-up results and first-quarter leads in their last five games at Indy’s Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The differentials: +3, +4, -4, +7, and +10 points.
Conversely, the Rockets are 1-4 with their last five opening quarters on the road, incurring deficits of -1, -9, -19, and -18 points. The lone 12-minute lead came at Detroit (+8).
The Rockets are 7-11 ATS with first-quarter road action this season, whereas the Pacers are 10-6-1 ATS at home.
Also, Indiana ranks third overall with first-quarter scoring (28.8 points per game) … or 17 slots ahead of Houston for the same metric (26.7 ppg).
Rest could be an ‘X factor’ tonight. The road-weary Rockets lost to the Bucks on Wednesday (126-106); but the Pacers were idle then, gathering a breather from Tuesday’s 125-96 road loss to the Heat.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Detroit Pistons At Miami Heat
The Prop: 211.5 combined points (alternate total)
The Odds: Over +130/Under -160
Tonight’s alternate tally — which is 3.5 points higher than the actual total (208) — could hold sneaky-good appeal to the ‘Over’ crowd.
— The Heat (-11 on DraftKings) are averaging 114.1 points in their last six victories, regardless of venue, with per-game breakdowns of 113, 113, 118, 101, 115, and 125 points.
— The opposition is averaging 112 points in Detroit’s last five road games (all straight-up losses), with four outings yielding at least 109 points. The only exception: The Knicks tallied 105 in their 14-point win on Tuesday, the Pistons’ most recent performance.
— For the season, Detroit ranks dead-last in opponents’ field-goal proficiency (47.4 percent), partially explaining why the Pistons have the league’s 10th-worst scoring defense (allowing 109.3 points per game).
— There’s little chance of Miami taking this game lightly, after losing to Detroit on Sunday (100-90). What was so significant about a random December defeat? It marked the Pistons’ only victory in their last 16 games.
For the ‘Under’ crowd:
Regarding Miami’s last five home outings, the losing team failed to crack 100 points four times. (The five totals: 221, 210, 217, 195, and 196.)
And for Detroit’s last 14 games, the offense registered 107 or more points only twice.
Rest-wise, both teams were idle Wednesday. The Heat pounded the Pacers 125-96 at home Tuesday night.
New York Knicks: PF Julius Randle
The Prop: 22.5 points (vs. Washington)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -120
Randle has already dropped 30 or more points seven times this season; and the Wizards possess middling rankings with scoring defense (16th overall, 108.1 points per game) and opponents’ field-goal proficiency (14th, 45.3 percent).
And yet, tonight’s total reads somewhat ominous for the ‘Over’ crowd. Here’s why:
— Randle is averaging only 18.4 points in his last eight games; and during this sluggish stretch, the University of Kentucky product eclipsed 21.5 points just once — rolling for 31 against the Warriors on Dec. 14. The other tallies: 15, 18, 13, 8, 21, 20, and 21 points.
— Randle has been a boom-or-bust scorer in his last six meetings with Washington, posting 37, 13, 24, 16, 21, and 30 points in alternating games.
— Of the six times Randle has played in consecutive home games on sufficient rest this season (at least one day off — like tonight), his breakdowns are merely 16, 13, 16, 9, 24, and 31 points for the tail end of the back-to-backs.
Minnesota Timberwolves: C Karl-Anthony Towns
The Prop: 40.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Utah)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
Charting his last six encounters with the Jazz, Towns fell considerably short of tonight’s 40.5 total each time — racking up 34, 34, 37, 31, 35, and 27 PRA credits.
And for his last eight overall games, regardless of venue, Towns collected 41 or more PRAs just four times. The per-game tallies: 47, 37, 42, 44, 37, 30, 34, and 53 credits.
So, what must happen tonight, aside from an otherworldly effort of 20 rebounds, or double-digit assists?
Towns’ seasonal scoring production (24.5 points per game) accounts for 65.8 percent of his points/rebounds/assists output.
Of the last six games that KAT scored 26 or more points, he cleared tonight’s PRA of 40.5 every time. The breakdown: 42, 45, 53, 44, 42, and 47 PRA credits.
Anything within that range of 26-plus points against the Jazz — the NBA’s No. 7-ranked scoring defense (allowing 105.0 points per game — and Towns has a decent chance at toppling the total.
Towns will be playing on sufficient rest after logging 37-plus minutes against the Mavericks Monday. Anthony Edwards is still out for the Wolves.
Los Angeles Lakers: PG Russell Westbrook
The Prop: 7.5 assists (vs. San Antonio)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -125
There’s a “Yes, But …” component to Westbrook’s pursuit of eight or more assists. As in:
Yes, Westbrook has already notched five triple-doubles for the Lakers, but the feat hasn’t occurred since Nov. 26 against the Kings (29 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds).
Yes, Westbrook is averaging 8.2 seasonal assists, but he has collected eight-plus assists only twice in his last seven games. The breakdown: 7, 7, 5, 9, 3, 8, and 5 assists.
Yes, Westbrook has 15 combined assists in two seasonal meetings against the Spurs, but Anthony Davis was on the court both times, rolling for 69 cumulative points.
Outside of LeBron James, can Westbrook pinpoint another reliable source for scoring tonight — now that Davis has been shelved with an injury?
In the Lakers’ last two games without Davis, Westbrook compiled only 13 assists total.
Fatigue won’t be a factor here. Westbrook (idle on Wednesday) logged his customary 36 minutes Tuesday versus the Suns.
