The NBA play-in odds market for Wednesday reveals two Eastern Conference teams that each finished four games over .500. It also reveals two Western Conference teams that finished a combined 24 games Under .500. Yet two of these squads will keep their seasons alive with victories in their respective contests.
First up, the Eastern Conference’s No. 10 seed — the Charlotte Hornets — travel to Atlanta to take on the No. 9 seed Hawks. The nightcap pits the 10th-seeded San Antonio Spurs against the No. 9 New Orleans Pelicans.
The Hornets-Hawks winner will take on the loser of Tuesday’s play-in battle between No. 7 Brooklyn and No. 8 Cleveland. Whichever squad survives that contest will be awarded the eighth and final playoff spot and face the No. 1 seed Miami Heat
Similarly, the Spurs-Pelicans victor will move on to face whichever team loses Tuesday’s Los Angeles Clippers-Minnesota Timberwolves clash — all for the right to be a massive underdog against the top-seeded Phoenix Suns.
As for the losers of Hornets-Hawks and Spurs-Pelicans? It’s off to vacation.
Props.com breaks down the two win-or-go home games on Wednesday’s NBA play-in odds board.
Odds via WynnBet and updated as of 5:45 p.m. ET on April 13.
San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans
Tipoff/TV: 9:30 p.m. ET/ESPN
San Antonio: 34-48 SU/44-37-1 ATS
New Orleans: 36-46 SU/41-40-1 ATS
Spread/Total: Pelicans -5.5/225
Season Series: San Antonio won three of the four meetings both SU and ATS, including a 107-103 upset win as a 6-point road underdog on March 26. In fact, the visitor went 3-1 SU and ATS, all as a ’dog.
Did you know: The Spurs are 9-2 SU/ATS against New Orleans since January 2019. Also, seven of the last eight meetings — including three of four this season — have stayed Under the total.
About San Antonio: Thanks partly to a late-season 7-1 SU surge — but mostly due to a complete collapse by the Los Angeles Lakers — the Spurs have a chance to end a two-year playoff drought if they can pick up one victory in the play-in tournament. San Antonio followed that 7-1 run by losing its final three games, all of them meaningless. However, the Spurs put a ton of money in bettors’ pockets down the stretch, going 10-1 ATS, cashing the last seven in a row. San Antonio ranked eighth in the league in scoring offense (113.2 ppg) but 23rd in scoring defense (113.0 ppg). The Spurs — who qualified for the playoffs during each of coach Gregg Popovich’s first 22 seasons from 1998-2019 — finished with their worst regular-season winning percentage (.415) since going 20-62 in 1996-97. That was the season before the franchise drafted Tim Duncan.
About New Orleans: The Pelicans played the entire season without 2018 No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson (foot injury). However, the squad got a big boost from the midseason acquisition of C.J. McCollum. The veteran shooting guard averaged 24.3 points, 5.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds in 26 games after being traded from Portland. Like the Spurs, New Orleans enjoyed a solid late-season run, going 8-3 SU/ATS from March 18-April 7. The Pelicans dropped their final two games both SU and ATS, but neither mattered. New Orleans fielded the 10th-worst scoring offense (109.3 ppg) and ranked 26th out of 30 teams in 3-point shooting (33.2%). The Pelicans also were 24th in field-goal defense (47.1%) and 26th in 3-point defense (35.5), but they were 13th in scoring defense (110.3 ppg).
Injuries: San Antonio shooting guard Lonnie Walker IV, who averages 12.1 ppg, has missed two of the last three games with a lower back injury, but he’s probable to play. … New Orleans forward/leading scorer Brandon Ingram (22.7 ppg) missed 10 of his team’s final 13 regular-season games — including the last three in a row — with a hamstring injury. However, the game-day update has him probable to play. Center Jonas Valanciunas, who averages a team-high 11.4 rebounds per game and ranks third on the team in scoring at 17.8 ppg, sat out Sunday’s finale against Golden State with an ankle injury. Valanciunas is questionable.
Editor’s Note: Looking to become a sharper NBA bettor? Check out our NBA betting guide for a few wagering tips.
Notable Trends
- San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road
- San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (5-0 ATS as a road ’dog)
- New Orleans is 11-4-1 ATS as a favorite
- Under is 9-4 in New Orleans’ last 13 overall
- Under is 13-5 in New Orleans’ last 18 as a home favorite
- Underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 Spurs-Pelicans clashes
- San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven at New Orleans
San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans Odds and Action
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Ninety minutes before game time, the Pelicans are laying 5.5 points in WynnBet’s Wednesday NBA play-in odds market. New Orleans opened -5 on Sunday night, ticked to -5.5 Tuesday afternoon and hasn’t budged since. Counter to the move, San Antonio is netting 63% of tickets and 57% of cash on the spread. As is the case elsewhere, the total has seen a big decline, from a 232 opener to a 224 low point this morning, before slightly rebounding to 225 this evening. Ticket count is dead even, but 80% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. WEDNESDAY: BetMGM pegged the Pelicans a 5.5-point favorite at Sunday’s outset, and that number has stuck through this afternoon, save for a couple of price adjustments to -115. New Orleans is now -5.5 flat, with 61% of spread bets and 64% of spread cash on San Antonio. The total opened at 232.5 and fell to 229.5 within 3.5 hours Sunday night, and it’s continued to plunge since then, now at 224.5. The Under is attracting 77% of bets/85% of cash.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET TUESDAY: New Orleans dipped from -5.5 to -5 Sunday on DraftKings’ NBA play-in odds board, then midafternoon today rose to -5.5 (-105). However, early betting splits show 59% of tickets and 70% of cash on underdog San Antonio. The total dipped from 229.5 to 228.5 Monday morning and briefly returned to 229.5 this morning, but has since made its way down to 226. The Over is seeing 63% of tickets, but 55% of cash is on the Under.
Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks
Tipoff/TV: 7 p.m. ET/ESPN
Hornets: 43-39 SU/45-35-2 ATS
Hawks: 43-39 SU/37-45 ATS
Spread/Total: Hawks -5.5/235.5
Season series: The teams split their four meetings SU and ATS, with each going 1-1 SU/ATS at home and on the road. Most recently, the Hornets topped Atlanta 116-106 as a 1-point home underdog on March 16. Three of the four meetings were decided by double digits.
Did you know: The Under is 6-1 in the last seven Hornets-Hawks clashes, including 3-1 this year. The lone Over was Charlotte’s 130-127 road win on Dec. 5. The other six meetings the past two seasons have featured combined point tallies of 226, 204, 220, 206, 218 and 196.
About Charlotte: The Hornets closed the regular season on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge, scoring 128, 133 and 124 points. Charlotte ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring offense at 115.3 points per game, just a couple ticks behind No. 1 Memphis (115.9 ppg). However, the squad allowed the fifth-most points in the league at 114.9 ppg (tied with Indiana). The Hornets are looking to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and just the fourth time since 2002. The franchise hasn’t advanced beyond the first round since that 2002 campaign. Charlotte posted nearly identical SU and ATS records at home (22-19 SU/22-18-1 ATS) and on the road (21-20 SU/23-17-1 ATS). The Hornets won and covered six of their final eight road games.
About Atlanta: The Hawks finished 10 games over .500 in last year’s COVID-shortened 72-game season, then made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals. This year, they barely played .500 ball but finished with a flourish, going 7-2 SU/ATS (4-0 SU/ATS at home). Atlanta topped 120 points in all seven victories and averaged 124.1 points during the nine-game stretch. Despite finishing with an identical record to Charlotte, the Hawks won the tiebreaker — and the opportunity to host this game — based on a better record in the Southeast Division (9-7 vs. 8-8). Atlanta ranked sixth in the NBA in scoring (113.9 ppg), second in 3-point shooting (37.4%) and fourth in free-throw shooting (81.2%). However, the Hawks placed in the bottom 10 in the league in scoring defense (112.4 ppg, 21st), field-goal defense (47.1%, T-24th) and 3-point defense (36.4, 25th).
Injuries: New Orleans shooting guard Gordon Hayward, who has missed 26 of the last 27 games because of a foot injury, has been ruled out for the play-in tournament. … Atlanta power forward John Collins (16.2 points, 7.8 rebounds per game) has missed 16 straight games with foot and finger injuries. He remains out indefinitely.
Notable Trends
- Charlotte is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games
- Charlotte is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 when playing on two days rest
- Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in its last six as a favorite
- Over is 4-0 in Charlotte’s last four on the road
- Under is 21-7 in Charlotte’s last 28 as an underdog
- Under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five overall
- Charlotte is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five trips to Atlanta
- Over is 6-2 in the last eight Hornets-Hawks clashes in Atlanta
Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks Odds and Action
UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Caesars Sportsbook pegged Atlanta -4.5 to open on Sunday, moved to -5 Tuesday night, then this morning went to -5.5, where the number stuck all day. Ticket count is almost 2.5/1 and money is beyond 6/1 on the spread. A chunk of that money differential is by way of a $55,000 bet on the Hawks -4.5. The total opened at 239.5 and by Monday morning tumbled to 236.5, then bottomed out and held this morning at 235.5. Ticket count is just beyond 2/1 and money just shy of 3/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Hawks hit BetMGM’s Wednesday NBA play-in odds board as a 4.5-point point chalk Sunday night and stuck there until Tuesday night, when the line jumped straight to -5.5. Since then, Atlanta has stuck at -5.5, with the juice twice adjusting to -105, and the number is now -5.5 flat again. The Hawks are drawing 62% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. The total opened at 239.5, tumbled to 236.5 by Monday morning, then Tuesday night fell to 235.5, where it remains now, with 63% of tickets/67% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Atlanta opened as a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings’ NBA play-in odds board late Sunday night, went to -4 midmorning Monday, then midafternoon Monday returned to -4.5, where the number remains tonight. The Hawks are getting 59% of early tickets and 72% of early cash. The total has steadily declined from an opener of 238.5, making trips to 237.5, 237 and 236.5, then this morning hitting 236, where it remains now. The Over is nabbing 63% of tickets, but money is much more two-way, at 52% on the Over.