The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, June 30
Jason Alexander: Milwaukee Brewers
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.45 ERA indicates
Alexander’s thrown well early in his MLB career. He owns a 2-0 record with a 3.45 ERA through 6 games (5 starts). He’s struggled with a 5.07 xFIP, though, suggesting he’s been getting lucky up until this part.
This is somewhat of an odd case, and there will be a point in time where regression comes crashing down on Alexander. He hasn’t posted an xFIP below his season ERA yet. He’s also been struggling a bit recently, as his ERA’s increased in each of his last 5 starts.
Luckily, Alexander gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. They have a small amount of pop throughout their lineup, but they aren’t an offense to be scared of by any means.
Bottom Line: Alexander will get hit hard with regression at some point, but he may be able to avoid it in a solid matchup against Pittsburgh tonight.
Logan Gilbert: Seattle Mariners
Matchup: Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners | 10:10 pm ET
Outlook: Slightly negative – throwing worse than 24.9% strikeout rate indicates
Gilbert’s enjoyed an outstanding season, specifically with strikeouts. He’s posted a 9 K/9 through 15 starts. He also owns 24.9% strikeout, 10.8% swinging-strike, and 25.4% CSW rates through 88.2 innings this season.
Gilbert currently ranks 20th in the MLB in strikeout rate. He also ranks 33rd in swinging-strike and 54th in CSW rates. It’s difficult to project strikeout regression because certain guys have elite stuff with two-strikes, but there’s very little reason to believe Gilbert won’t see some type of regression as the season progresses.
He gets an interesting matchup against Oakland tonight. They strike out at one of the higher rates in the MLB against right-handed pitching, but they haven’t been striking out nearly as much in recent games.
Bottom Line: Gilbert’s strikeout rate should drop as the season progresses. He’s throwing in a matchup that could prolong that regression, though.
Aaron Nola: Philadelphia Phillies
Matchup: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies | 6:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.10 home ERA suggests
Nola’s numbers look relatively normal when you look at the entire picture. He owns a 4-5 record with a 2.98 ERA through 15 starts. His ERA is backed by a dominant 2.88 xFIP, which doesn’t suggest much regression.
That doesn’t tell the entire story, though. Nola’s struggled with a 4.10 ERA in Philadelphia this season. He boasts a dominant 2.96 xFIP through 41.2 home innings, though. He’s due for over one run of positive regression at home as the season continues.
Nola gets an interesting matchup against Atlanta tonight. They certainly have upside throughout their offense, but they currently rank 18th in the MLB in team wOBA (.310) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Nola is due for positive regression at home, and he gets a solid matchup against a somewhat struggling Atlanta offense. He could see elite results in this game tonight.