The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, July 14
Johnny Cueto: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins | 7:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.91 ERA indicates
Cueto’s found surprising success throughout the 2022 season. He’s posted a 3-4 record with a 2.91 ERA through 11 games (10 starts). He also owns a 4.08 xFIP, suggesting he’s gotten lucky early this season.
Cueto’s coming off of a dominant start against the Detroit Tigers, and his 2.79 xFIP in that game shows. Prior to that, he posted a 6.85 xFIP against the Minnesota Twins, although his ERA sat at only 3.00. Overall, he’s been relatively solid for the most part, although he struggles mightily in some games.
Cueto gets a terrible matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who he just struggled against. They’re a significantly better offense in Minnesota as well, making this start significantly more difficult.
Bottom Line: Cueto’s going to regression as the season progresses, and I’m expecting that to start against Minnesota tonight.
Marco Gonzales: Seattle Mariners
Matchup: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers | 8:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.24 ERA suggests
Gonzales has been throwing well through 17 starts this season. He owns a 5-9 record with a 3.24 ERA in 2022. His 4.99 xFIP and .256 BABIP suggest that he’s due for regression as he throws more innings this season.
Gonzales has been great at avoiding regression throughout his career, and he may simply be a better pitcher than his advanced metrics show. With that being said, he’s posted an xFIP over 5.00 in each of his last 3 starts. At some point in time, he’s going to get blown up.
Gonzales gets a tough matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. They feature one of the better offenses in the MLB against left-handed pitching, ranking sixth in the MLB in OPS (.768) against lefties.
Bottom Line: Gonzales has been outstanding at avoiding regression throughout his career, but this is a terrible matchup for him. I’m expecting the Rangers to get to him tonight.
Carlos Carrasco: New York Mets
Matchup: New York Mets at Chicago Cubs | 8:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.55 ERA suggests
Carrasco’s struggled a bit throughout the 2022 season. He enters this game with a 9-4 record with a 4.55 ERA through 17 starts. He also owns a 3.55 xFIP, though, and he should see plenty of positive regression.
The odd aspect of Carrasco’s game is that he’s consistently had better advanced metrics than baseline stats. His ERA’s sat above his xFIP in 4 of his last 5 seasons. It’s enough to beg the question of will this positive regression actually come?
Carrasco gets an interesting matchup against the Chicago Cubs. They’ve seen mixed results throughout the season, but they’ve found more success at home. With that being said, the weather is slightly more favorable toward pitchers tonight.
Bottom Line: Carrasco is due for positive regression, and he could find some tonight. His career metrics are a bit worrisome, though.
