The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, July 22
Marco Gonzales: Seattle Mariners
Matchup: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.50 ERA indicates
Gonzales has consistently found himself in this article, and we’re back to him on this slate. He’s posted a 5-9 record with a 3.50 ERA through 18 starts in 2022. His 4.93 xFIP suggests he’s due for regression as the season progresses, though.
Gonzales has been awful in recent starts, posting an xFIP over 5.00 in 3 of his last 4 games. He’s given up more than 2 earned runs in only 1 of those starts, though. He started to find some of that regression in his last game, though, giving up 5 earned runs over 6 innings to the Texas Rangers.
Gonzales gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros tonight. He will be playing at home, though, which is a pitcher-friendly stadium. The Astros are also coming off of a double-header yesterday, and they were forced to travel to Seattle for this game.
Bottom Line: Gonzales gets a tough matchup against Houston, but he’ll have every advantage possible because of the scheduling. He should continue to find regression but the situation makes this game a bit more interesting than it should be.
Tyler Wells: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.38 ERA suggests
Wells has been throwing extremely well this season, but how long can he keep it up? He owns a 7-5 record with a 3.38 ERA through 18 starts. He’s also posted a 4.63 xFIP, though, suggesting he’s due for quite a bit of regression.
Wells has been an elite option at home, where he owns a dominant 2.76 ERA through 32.2 innings. His xFIP dips to 5.05 in Baltimore, though, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked in front of his home crowd.
The young right-hander gets a terrible matchup against the New York Yankees tonight. New York was one of the hottest offenses in the MLB prior to the All-Star Break, and they should continue to find plenty of success as the season progresses.
Bottom Line: Wells is due for over 2 runs worth of regression at home. He gets a terrible matchup against New York tonight, and he could be in for an early exit in this game.
Patrick Corbin: Washington Nationals
Matchup: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.87 ERA suggests
Corbin’s looked awful through 19 starts in 2022. He’s posted a 4-12 record with a 5.87 ERA this season. He isn’t throwing quite that bad, though, as he also owns a 4.06 xFIP through 99.2 innings.
Corbin hasn’t had the elite results in recent games, but he’s been throwing well for the most part. He’s recorded 2.60, 2.16, and 3.84 xFIPs in 3 of his last 5 starts. He also posted 4.02 and 4.31 xFIPs in the other starts. Although these aren’t elite, they aren’t nearly as bad as his baseline metrics suggest.
The left-hander gets an interesting matchup against Arizona tonight. They were playing at an average level prior to the All-Star Break, ranking 16th in team wOBA (.316) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Corbin isn’t a dominant pitcher, but he’s significantly better than his numbers suggest. The Diamondbacks have found some success in recent games, but this is a matchup that Corbin can take advantage of tonight.
