Matt LaMarca

Louisville vs. UCF Predictions & Best Bets – NCAAF Picks Week 2

Louisville Cardinals quarterback Malik Cunningham (3) runs the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second quarter at Cardinal Stadium. Kentucky won 52-21.
Image Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

The Louisville Cardinals head to Orlando for a matchup against the Central Florida Golden Knights in Week 2, and both teams are coming off drastically different performances in Week 1. Louisville got thoroughly embarrassed on the road at Syracuse, while UCF blew the doors off South Carolina State.

Optimism is high for UCF this season, who trail only Houston in terms of odds to win the American Athletic Conference championship. However, Louisville will represent a sizable step up in competition. Can they take care of business at home?

Let’s dive into the Louisville vs. UCF predictions for Thursday’s game in NCAAF Week 2.

Louisville vs. UCF Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Louisville+6.5 +195O 61.5 (-110)
@ UCF-6.5-230U 61.5 (-110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Sep. 5

Game Info

  • Date: Friday, Sept. 9
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Bounce House (Orlando, FL)
  • TV: ESPN2

Louisville vs. UCF Trends

  • UCF is coming off a 56-10 win over South Carolina State in Week 1.
  • UCF was 9-4 last season (4-8 ATS)
  • Louisville is coming off a 7-31 defeat at Syracuse in Week 1. They were listed as 5.5-point road favorites.
  • Louisville was 6-7 last season (6-6 ATS)
  • Louisville beat UCF by seven points at home in 2021.
  • ACC teams were 3-1 against the spread vs. AAC teams last season.
  • Underdogs coming off a loss of at least 21 points have gone 318-294-11 against teams coming off a win of at least 21 points.
  • Louisville is 11-21-1 as an underdog since the start of 2017.
  • UCF is 11-19 as a favorite since the start of 2019.
  • As of Monday, DraftKings reports UCF has garnered 62% of the handle on 76% of the spread bets.
  • The over has received 57% of the handle and 55% of the bets.

Can Louisville Offense Bounce Back?

There weren’t a ton of concerns for the Louisville offense heading into the year. It started with quarterback Malik Cunningham, who had some legitimate appeal as a Heisman Trophy dark horse. He put together an excellent campaign in 2021, racking up 2,941 passing yards, 1,031 rushing yards, and 49 total touchdowns. He also had just six interceptions.

Louisville also returned four starters on the offensive line, including First-Team All-ACC guard Caleb Chandler. Louisville ranked first in pass protection and first in tackles for loss allowed in the ACC last year, so this had all the making of an excellent offense.

Unfortunately, that offense hit a major snag in Week 1. They failed to generate a single point on offense, with their only score coming off a blocked field goal. Cunningham also threw two picks and lost a fumble, which kept the offense from sustaining any drives.

While that performance was eye-opening, I don’t want to overreact to one game. Louisville still figures to move the ball well this season, and Syracuse was a tougher matchup than they looked on paper. They acquired plenty of talent in the offseason transfer portal, so don’t be surprised if they have a better season than expected.

Overall, I’m expecting a big-time bounce back for the Cardinals on Friday.

Will UCF Pass First Real Test?

UCF cruised to one of the easiest wins you’ll ever see in Week 1. They outgained South Carolina State 600-91, and they dominated every facet of the game. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee racked up 308 yards and four touchdowns, the team averaged 6.0 yards per carry, and the defense tallied two sacks and nine tackles for loss.

That said, SC State is far from a football powerhouse, so Louisville will represent a significant step up in weight class.

It will be interesting to see what Plumlee brings to the table in tougher matchups. The Ole Miss transfer is an excellent athlete, even spending time at receiver during his tenure with the Rebels. He should form a dangerous rushing attack with RBs Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson.

However, the passing attack remains a question mark. Last year’s leading receiver is back, but deep threats Brandon Johnson and Jaylon Robinson are gone. That kind of thing doesn’t matter against the South Carolina States of the world, but it could matter against Louisville.

Louisville vs. UCF Predictions

If you couldn’t already tell, I think this is an excellent bounce-back spot for the Cardinals. Louisville’s performance last week was dismal, but it was the first game of the year against a better-than-expected opponent (on the road). Meanwhile, we still don’t really know anything about UCF following their win against a cupcake.

Overall, I have these teams graded out pretty evenly on paper, so I don’t think UCF should be favored by nearly a touchdown. Even after adjusting for home field, I’d have this spread closer to four points. Take the value with Louisville.

Pick: Louisville +6.5 | -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook

Player Props For Louisville vs. UCF

We have two prop bets lined up for this game and several more for the weekend. Click below.

Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)