The Bills and Jets are closing Week 1 with an AFC East slugfest. Buffalo is attempting to defend the AFC East crown, while the Jets are trying to carry the momentum of being the offseason winners into the regular season. It’s a statement game for both teams, and nothing will come easy for their offenses. We’ll keep that in mind when assembling these Jets vs. Bills player props.
Jets vs. Bills Player Props
Editor’s Note: The following Monday Night Football prop bets come from FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM. If these sportsbooks are not legal in your state, you can still place these Jets vs. Bills player props at Underdog Fantasy.
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3 Best Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Week 1
Here’s a trio of Jets vs. Bills player props I like for Monday’s primetime matchup.
Aaron Rodgers Under 234.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021 before posting his worst Quarterback Rating and lowest passing yards per game (217.4) as a starter in 2022. Obviously, paraphrasing Rodgers, his down year is a career year for many quarterbacks. Nevertheless, he’ll turn 40 this season, so his dip in production last year is worth noting.
Rodgers passed for fewer than 234.5 yards in 12 of 17 contests. Additionally, his median was 224 passing yards. The veteran signal-caller also passed for just 203 yards against the Bills in Week 8 last season.
New York’s pace will likely be slow, and they’re unlikely to cut the passing game loose. According to the nfelo app, Green Bay was 18th in Pass Rate Over Expectations (PROE) in 2022. In addition, per Rotoviz’s pace data, the Packers played at the second-slowest pace (30.4 seconds per play) in neutral game scripts.
Finally, the matchup is challenging. The Bills allowed the 15th-fewest passing yards per game (214.6). However, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Buffalo allowed the third-fewest Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (5.1 ANY/A) and only allowed five of 18 opponents to exceed 234.5 passing yards last season.
Where to bet: Aaron Rodgers Under 234.5 Passing Yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
Rodgers under 234.5 pass yards
Khalil Shakir Under 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Khalil Shakir had an opportunity to win Buffalo’s No. 3 wide receiver role and appears to have been beaten out for the gig by Deonte Harty.
Trent Sherfield also generated some buzz in the preseason and played snaps with Josh Allen in the preseason finale.
Josh Allen played one drive with the starters in Week 3 of the preseason.
Dalton Kincaid was in a route on 71% of dropbacks despite the return of Dawson Knox. Small sample, but 70%-plus is enough in a pass-first offense like Buffalo.
Deonty Hart looking like the WR3.👀 pic.twitter.com/htLdaUFDvP
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 28, 2023
Moreover, the Bills have discussed Dalton Kincaid as a jumbo slot and frequently referenced an 11.5 personnel grouping.
Shakir is squeezed for playing time. If he’s active, he might only play a few snaps on offense or be limited to special teams. There’s also a possibility he’s inactive, and this bet is voided. Regardless, Shakir is buried in Buffalo’s passing-game hierarchy.
Where to bet: Khalil Shakir Under 9.5 Receiving Yards | -110 BetMGM Sportsbook
James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+120)
The Bills took a slow-and-low approach to preparing James Cook last year. Still, he had encouraging underlying passing-game usage. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cook was targeted on 22.3% of his routes as a rookie.
To put that mark in perspective, Christian McCaffrey was targeted on 24.2% of his routes, and Aaron Jones was targeted on 22.8% of his. So, Cook was in good company with top-flight pass-catching backs, albeit on a smaller sample.
The matchup is also ideal for Cook to exceed 2.5 receptions. According to The 33rd Team, Gang Green allowed 5.0 receptions per game to running backs last year. In Buffalo’s two games against the Jets last year, the Bills’ running backs combined for 14 targets (19.2% targets per route run for the group and 21.7% for Cook) and eight receptions.
Cook is poised to handle the lion’s share of the work in the backfield and should see a handful of targets, giving him an excellent chance to best 2.5 receptions.
Where to bet: James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions | +120 BetMGM Sportsbook
