Our Injury Report NBA article is here to bring you all of the daily updates needed to maximize your bets for the day.
Make sure to check back regularly to this NBA injury report article as each pick could help inform your betting. We’ll update this article with three of our top injuries that will have a significant impact on certain matchups.
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Injury Report NBA – Key News For Monday, Jan. 20
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Monday brings us the NBA’s annual all-day MLK Day slate, and as usual, there are several big names among the walking wounded.
This article typically examines the top three confirmed or potential prominent absences on the night’s NBA slate and how the player’s team may be impacted, including how others could benefit from that star potentially being off the floor.
At the conclusion of today’s article, we’ll also examine two additional noteworthy injuries.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks, QUESTIONABLE (thumb):
Towns is once again questionable for Monday’s game against the Hawks due to the thumb sprain he suffered in last Monday’s game against the Pistons. The big man subsequently sat out Wednesday’s win over the 76ers and Friday’s loss to his old Timberwolves squad. The absence against Minnesota was Towns’ fifth overall, and New York is now 2-3 without him this season. Towns was able to go through practice Sunday, seemingly upping his prospects of playing Monday afternoon.
The biggest beneficiary when Towns is off the floor for any reason is far and away Jalen Brunson, who carries a 34.2% usage rate and per-36 averages of 31.2 points, 7.1 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals in that scenario. Cameron Payne continues to run second among regular members of the rotation with a 26.1% usage rate and a jump from 12.6 to 18.5 shot attempts per 36 when not on the floor with Towns. In Towns’ most recent absence Friday, Payne particularly stood out with 18 points, two rebounds, an assist and a steal across only 12 minutes, which equated to a massive 41.6% usage rate for the night.
If Towns were to sit again, Jericho Sims would almost certainly draw another start in his stead. Versus the T-Wolves on Friday, Sims played 19 scoreless minutes but did contribute five rebounds, two assists and one steal. Precious Achiuwa played far more off the bench – 36 minutes to be precise – but only mustered six points, five rebounds, three assists, three blocks and one steal on a modest 12.6% usage rate.
Stephen Curry, Warriors, QUESTIONABLE (ankle):
Curry seems like a 50/50 proposition to log his ninth absence of the season in Monday afternoon’s showdown against the Celtics due to a left ankle sprain. The legendary sharpshooter’s prior eight missed games have resulted in a surprisingly solid 5-3 mark for Golden State. In Curry’s most recent absence Jan. 10, the Dubs did take a 108-96 loss to the Pacers in a game in which Buddy Hield moved into a makeshift starting five that was also missing Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green.
Wiggins qualifies as the leader in usage rate among currently healthy Warriors when Curry is off the floor, as he sports a 26% figure in that scenario alongside per-36 averages of 20.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.6 steals. Hield is the next regular member of the rotation on that list with 24% usage rate, while Dennis Schroder is already a close third with 23% usage rate sans Curry despite his relatively recent arrival. Wiggins’ shot attempts jump from 15.8 to 17.1 per 36 when not sharing the floor with Curry, while Hield’s go from 14.2 to 17.5.
If Curry does sit out versus Boston, Schroder would likely move into the de facto point guard role against one of his many old squads, while Hield would likely slot in at two-guard. Hield has been solid in first-unit opportunities this season, putting up 14.7 points (on 38.7% three-point shooting), 3.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.3 steals across 29.9 minutes per game in 10 turns with the starting five. His two biggest point totals of the season – 28 and 27 points – came in a pair of those spot starts.
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers, OUT (calf):
Mobley will miss his second straight game and fourth of the season overall Monday against the Suns. The big man has seen the Cavs go 3-0 without him thus far this season, with their latest success a 124-117 win over the Timberwolves on Saturday.
In that game, Donovan Mitchell led Cleveland with a 43.5% usage rate and 36 points, adding seven assists, six rebounds and one steal across 34 minutes. Darius Garland was second with 31% usage and 29 points, complementing those figures with six assists and three rebounds over 33 minutes.
Those numbers are a microcosm of season-long trends – Mitchell owns a team-high 31.9% usage rate and per-36 figures of 26.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.6 steals when Mobley is off the floor. Garland is right behind him with 29.4% usage sans Mobley, and he’s averaging an even higher 28.4 points and 8.6 assists, along with 3.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals, per 36 in that scenario as well.
In Mobley’s absence Saturday, it was Caris LeVert that stepped into the starting five. However, the veteran did little with the opportunity, posting two points, three rebounds and three assists across 25 minutes while generating an anemic 12.3% usage rate. In turn, Georges Niang seemed to be a much more direct beneficiary, providing 15 points, seven rebounds, one assist and one steal across 29 minutes off the bench, with his playing time seeing a significant bump from the 19.9 minutes per contest he came into the night averaging.
Considering Saturday’s results, Niang, who’s drawn one start back on Nov. 15 against the Bulls when Mobley missed his first game of the season, could swap in for LeVert on the first unit Monday. Niang supplied 14 points, eight rebounds and one steal over 25 minutes in that contest.
Other notable injuries:
Amen Thompson, Rockets, QUESTIONABLE (calf):
Thompson is in danger of logging his fourth absence of the season Monday against the Pistons due to the calf injury that cost him Saturday’s game versus the Trail Blazers, a win that moved the Rockets’ record without him to 2-1. Jae’Sean Tate filled in for Thompson in that game but played just 17 scoreless minutes while posting three rebounds, one assist and one block. In terms of usage leaders whenever Thompson is off the floor this season, Alperen Sengun (27.8%), Jalen Green (26.8%) and Cam Whitmore (24.4%) are the top three among regular rotation members.
Josh Hart, Knicks, QUESTIONABLE (neck):
Hart could be in jeopardy of missing his first game of the season Monday against the Hawks, although he was able to practice Sunday. The veteran wing would potentially be replaced in the starting five by Landry Shamet if he’s unable to go, and Jalen Brunson would be a primary beneficiary (32.9% usage rate without Hart on the floor, 34.3% without both Towns and Hart) if Hart sits out.
NBA Injury Report Betting Guide
With a long 82-game season that’s played out on the unforgiving surface of the hardwood – not to mention the fact players are faster and more physical than ever – injuries are a nightly albatross for coaches, players, fans and bettors alike to contend with from their respective perspectives.
Pay Attention To Star Players
For those of us spectators that like to add a little monetary incentive to the games we consume, NBA injuries to frontline players are particularly impactful due to the compact number of players on a first unit and the inherent dependency the production of each typically has on their teammates.
Usage Rate Is Key
Perhaps the single most revelatory metric for gauging the impact of a player’s absence is usage rate, commonly defined as a measure of what percentage of a team’s plays a specific player is involved in by touching the ball in some form.
There is no shortage of tools available that pinpoint what players benefit the most from another’s absence in terms of a rise in usage rate, and those same tools also typically provide each player’s average in all major categories when another specified player is off the floor.
Line and Total Movement Impact
The bigger the name in terms of an injured player, the bigger the impact naturally is on betting strategy.
However, that in itself is a multi-layered scenario – there are many factors that go into determining how to go about wagering on a team missing a major star on any given night, including how much line and totals movement has occurred as a result of the news.