Our Injury Report NBA article is here to bring you all of the daily updates needed to maximize your bets for the day.
Make sure to check back regularly to this NBA injury report article as each pick could help inform your betting. We’ll update this article with three of our top injuries that will have a significant impact on certain matchups.
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Injury Report NBA – Key News For Monday, Mar. 31
While we have a solid eight-game slate on tap Monday night, we’re finally catching a bit of a break when it comes to injuries. After multiple days of injury reports bursting at the seams with superstars, we have a much lighter number of notable walking wounded as the penultimate week of the regular season begins.
Today’s article will examine the top three confirmed or potential prominent absences on tonight’s NBA slate and how the player’s team may be impacted, including how others could benefit from that star potentially being off the floor.
We’ll also list some additional noteworthy short-term injuries at the end of today’s article:
Josh Giddey, Bulls, QUESTIONABLE (hip):
Giddey is in danger of missing his 10th game of the season Monday against the Thunder due to a hip issue. The Bulls have been middling without their star guard this season, going 4-5 in his absences but notably winning three of the last four games he’s missed.
Whenever Giddey is off the floor, Coby White is the biggest beneficiary with a 26.4% usage rate and per-36 averages of 23.6 points, 5.2 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals. Nikola Vucevic is second with a 22.3% usage rate while also putting up 20.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per 36 minutes.
If Giddey is out Monday, Jevon Carter could get the starting call at point guard with Tre Jones (foot) still out. Alternatively, Dalen Terry and Julian Phillips could both enter the starting five to fill the shooting guard and small forward roles, which would enable White to shift over to point guard.
Jaylen Brown, Celtics, QUESTIONABLE (knee):
Brown could miss his 16th game of the season Monday against the Grizzlies due to his ongoing knee issues. The Celtics have fared surprisingly well without the star wing, going 12-3 in his first 15 absences and winning eight of the last nine games he’s missed – six by double digits – including four straight.
Unsurprisingly, it’s Jayson Tatum who’s the Celtics’ usage leader when Brown is off the floor, putting up a massive 37.0% rate in that scenario, compared to a 27.0% figure when sharing the court with him. Tatum’s shot attempts also take a big leap from 17.3 per 36 to 23.8 per 36 when Brown is on the bench. Kristaps Porzingis (27.7% usage) and Derrick White (25.3% usage) are the next two biggest beneficiaries.
If Brown can’t play Monday, Sam Hauser is his likely fill-in at small forward, although head coach Joe Mazzulla could conceivably shift Tatum to small forward and insert Al Horford into Tatum’s usual power forward spot as well. Hauser has been a solid spot starter, however, averaging 13.9 points (50.0% shooting, including 47.6% from three-point range) and 5.0 rebounds across 31.9 minutes per contest in his last 10 turns with the first unit dating back to Jan. 22.
Andrew Wiggins, Heat, OUT (hamstring):
Wiggins will sit out his 11th game since joining the Heat on Feb. 6 on Monday versus the Wizards due to right hamstring tendinopathy. Miami has gone 3-7 without Wiggins thus far, although the Heat did blow out the 76ers, 118-95, in his most recent absence on Saturday night.
When Wiggins is off the floor, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo hold the top two usage rates among Heat regulars with respective figures of 30.9 and 26.3%. Herro also averages a team-high 25.4 points per 36 minutes in that split while seeing his shot attempts jump from 16.8 with Wiggins on the floor to 20.0 (on a per-36 basis) with him on the bench.
In Wiggins’ absence against Philadelphia, Adebayo posted a 27.2% usage rate and Herro followed closely behind with a 26.6% figure, but it was notably Alec Burks (probable-back), who was filling in for Duncan Robinson (back) at two-guard, that sported team-high 29.1% usage and posted a team-high 20 points.
In Wiggins’ ongoing absence Monday, Pelle Larsson could once again serve as his direct replacement at small forward. The rookie second-round pick delivered an impressively well-balanced effort against the Sixers in what was just his third career start, producing 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, four steals and two blocks over 30 minutes.
Additional notable short-term injuries: Lauri Markkanen, Jazz, OUT (knee); John Collins, Jazz, OUT (ankle); Khris Middleton, Wizards, OUT (knee); Walker Kessler, Jazz, OUT (reconditioning); Duncan Robinson, Heat, OUT (back); Kyshawn George, Wizards, OUT (ankle); Bennedict Mathurin, Pacers, OUT (calf); Kevin Huerter, Bulls, OUT (thumb); Cole Anthony, Magic, QUESTIONABLE (toe); Cameron Johnson, Nets, QUESTIONABLE (back); Collin Sexton, Jazz, QUESTIONABLE (pelvis); Dereck Lively, Mavericks, QUESTIONABLE (ankle); Isaiah Hartenstein, Thunder, QUESTIONABLE (hip); Chet Holmgren, Thunder, QUESTIONABLE (hip)
NBA Injury Report Betting Guide
With a long 82-game season that’s played out on the unforgiving surface of the hardwood – not to mention the fact players are faster and more physical than ever – injuries are a nightly albatross for coaches, players, fans and bettors alike to contend with from their respective perspectives.
Pay Attention To Star Players
For those of us spectators that like to add a little monetary incentive to the games we consume, NBA injuries to frontline players are particularly impactful due to the compact number of players on a first unit and the inherent dependency the production of each typically has on their teammates.
Usage Rate Is Key
Perhaps the single most revelatory metric for gauging the impact of a player’s absence is usage rate, commonly defined as a measure of what percentage of a team’s plays a specific player is involved in by touching the ball in some form.
There is no shortage of tools available that pinpoint what players benefit the most from another’s absence in terms of a rise in usage rate, and those same tools also typically provide each player’s average in all major categories when another specified player is off the floor.
Line and Total Movement Impact
The bigger the name in terms of an injured player, the bigger the impact naturally is on betting strategy.
However, that in itself is a multi-layered scenario – there are many factors that go into determining how to go about wagering on a team missing a major star on any given night, including how much line and totals movement has occurred as a result of the news.
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