In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf props and DFS PGA picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, our top winner plays and analysis will be posted, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3 and Round 4. Let’s see if we can pick some winners!
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Golf Props Today – Outright Winner & Round 2/3/4 Picks
Every week, we look at our top outright winner picks for the upcoming tournament. We’ll then examine Rounds 2, 3, 4 from a DFS and betting perspective.
PGA DFS Picks – Charles Schwab Challenge
Let’s see who we are targeting for the third round at the Charles Schwab Challenge:
Round 3 (Saturday, May 24th)
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PGA DFS Round 3 Pick
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Round 2 (Friday, May 23rd)
If you picked John Pak as the first round leader, congratulations! You are a wizard.
Pak has raced out to an early three-shot lead at -7, with a huge number of golfers stacked up at -4 chasing him.
Through the first round at the Charles Schwab Challenge, here are the top five in strokes gained tee to green (via DataGolf.com):
Andrew Novak (+4.74)
John Pak (+4.04)
Ryo Hisatsune (+3.93)
Jordan Spieth (+3.68)
Adam Svensson (+3.14)
And here are the top five in strokes gained on approach:
Ryo Hisatsune (+3.66)
John Pak (+3.16)
Andrew Novak (+2.88)
Nick Hardy (+2.79)
Joel Dahmen (+2.69)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 1:
Andrew Novak (+4.74 T2G, +2.88 APP, -1.38 PUTT)
Jordan Spieth (+3.68 T2G, +2.36 APP, -2.32 PUTT)
Aaron Rai (+3.01 T2G, +1.39 APP, -2.65 PUTT)
Let’s see who sticks out heading into the second round of play at Colonial Country Club.
PGA DFS Round 2 Pick
We’re expecting a strong round of Aaron Rai, who has been in great form recently. He shot even par yesterday after putting up a strong ballstriking round but falling short on the greens.
Rai could be worth targeting with your Round 2 PGA DFS and betting picks, as his game aligns nicely with the course. His projection is at 69.5 strokes for Friday.
Pick: LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes
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Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Winner Picks
This week’s PGA Tour stop is the Charles Schwab challenge, an invitational event held at the storied Colonial Country Club.
Colonial started hosting a PGA Tour event 79 years ago and is the longest-running consecutive host on Tour. The invitational field is 135 players but still with a 65-man cut, and features a unique and extreme layout for a PGA Tour course.
The old-school design is one of the tightest courses around, and plays as quite an “advantage” for short hitters. More accurately, the advantage is taken away for long hitters. The course has very small greens and tons of tree-lined fairways, putting an emphasis on accuracy and placement. It also plays fairly heavily towards a strong putter.
We can look at the list of former 1st and 2nd place finishers here and get an idea – Davis Riley, Sam Burns, Daniel Berger, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Zach Johnson, and Brandt Snedeker highlight the angle of the short hitter and dominant putter, but there’s also another storyline with Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau (all second place finishers in recent years) highlighting the fact that the invitational field can still be sniped by one of the big dogs, even if it doesn’t play to their strength.
The obvious big dog here this week is the Texan Scottie Scheffler, who is making an appearance as one of the shortest-odds players to tee it up in an event since Tiger Woods’ prime. Hovering around +200 or low +200s to win, this is really historic territory, and while it’s pretty much completely deserved, the hype train is at it’s peak for sure and it’s not a play worth pulling the trigger on. There’s obviously nothing really bad to say about Scottie, and he is for sure the most likely player to win this event, by a long shot, but that number is just too low to chase.
It’s still golf and he’s got to beat 134 other guys over a one-tournament sample, and the course sets up too well for somebody to get hot on the greens and edge him out, it’s definitely worth taking a look further down the list.
Scottie’s odds “eat” a lot of the % for some of the other top players, and once again there’s tremendous value in Daniel Berger. Despite the fact that he has one of his four career wins here in 2020, and comes in as one of the favorites, Vegas and the public still continue to let him be overshadowed as he continues a truly dominant run in his comeback from career-threatening injury, playing basically some of the best golf of his career – missing only a win.
Berger is a +1.75 adjusted strokes gained player on the season, but in his last 8 events he has been on a can’t-miss run of nearly +2.5 strokes gained per event, which puts him FIRMLY as the second best player in this field.
I make his fair odds as low as 10-1, so it’s really as simple as that – with him floating at +2000 or better, it’s a no-brainer play, keep riding this wave until he falters, and probably double down even then, unless an injury flares up, or he starts getting the credit he deserves.
The course, obviously as a former champion here, is a great situation for him as one of the most accurate players off of the tee, who plays to a fairly average length. With a premium on iron play and putting, he is hiding his true value a little bit even with his recent run of form, as he hasn’t even putted well in the last three events. That statistic certainly will bounce back, and we don’t want to be on the sidelines when it does.
Another momentum play is J.J. Spaun. He’s mentally removed himself from the public’s consciousness that peaked with his playoff-loss at the Players, but in truth his past four events have been very solid – anywhere from 50th to 17th at some very big events (Masters, RBC, Truist, and PGA). His 2025 story is that he’s absolutely crushing his iron game, and has been resurgant on the greens, gaining about 0.8 and 0.2 strokes per round in each category.
His odds have drifted enough to where he becomes very playable at 50-1 here. Again, the course sets up well for him, as he excels lately in the most important categories here – accurate iron play, and putting. J.J. will have to ballstrike his way around this course a little more than some past champions, but he’s coming off four consecutive VERY strong and consistent weeks on the greens, and is certainly putting well enough to win, as the course suits him perfectly from tee-to-green.
Best Bets:
Daniel Berger +2000
J.J. Spaun +5000
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PGA DFS Picks – PGA Championship
Each week we take a look at our favorite individual round DFS PGA picks and golf props for Rounds 2, 3 and 4 on sites like Underdog and Sleeper.
Round 4 (Sunday, May 18th)
Scottie Scheffler (-11) has raced out to a three-shot lead after a dominant closing stretch in Round 3. Alex Noren (-8) is the closest competitor, with J.T. Poston and Davis Riley at -7.
Will Scheffler hold on for the PGA Championship trophy?
After three days, here are the top five in strokes gained from tee to green (via the free data at DataGolf.com):
Scottie Scheffler (+4.62)
Keegan Bradley (+3.01)
Marco Penge (+2.95)
Tony Finau (+2.92)
Ryan Fox (+2.92)
And here are the top five in strokes gained on approach:
Joaquinn Niemann (+2.26)
Tony Finau (+2.15)
J.T. Poston (+2.04)
J.J. Spaun (+1.95)
Alex Noren (+1.92)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 3:
Thorbjorn Olesen: +3.30 T2G, +1.31 APP, -2.79 PUTT
Tyrrell Hatton: +3.18 T2G, +1.09 APP, -2.66 PUTT
Aaron Rai: +1.02 T2G, +2.65 APP, -2.51 PUTT
PGA DFS Round 4 Pick
Bryson DeChambeau was right in the thick of things but faltered down the stretch in Round 3. Now he’s got some huge ground to make up.
The LIV star has been solid with his ballstriking, gaining +1.99 strokes tee to green and 1.53 strokes off the tee through the first three rounds. We expect a strong finish on Sunday.
Pick: Bryson DeChambeau LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes
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Round 3 (Saturday, May 17th)
Jhonattan Vegas remains atop the leaderboard at -8 through the first two rounds at the PGA Championship.
Si Woo Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick are all at -6, while Scottie Scheffler and Max Homa are two shots back. Who will be up for the challenge on Moving Day at Quail Hollow?
After two days, here are the top five in strokes gained from tee to green (via the free data at DataGolf.com):
Jhonattan Vegas (+4.05)
Marco Penge (+4.00)
Scottie Scheffler (+3.90)
J.J. Spaun (+3.63)
Daniel Berger (+3.55)
And here are the top five in strokes gained on approach:
J.J. Spaun (+2.94)
Tony Finau (+2.62)
Daniel Berger (+2.42)
Corey Conners (+2.29)
Joaquin Niemann (+2.24)
PGA DFS Round 3 Pick
Tommy Fleetwood is sitting at -2 for the tournament through the first two rounds. He’s looked quite good from tee to green, gaining +2.79 strokes, and we think this Round 3 number could be worth targeting.
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood LOWER Than 71.5 Strokes
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Round 2 (Friday, May 16th)
Jhonattan Vegas is leading after the first round at the PGA Championship at -7. Cam David and Ryan Gerard are the closest competitors at -5.
After day one, here are the top five in strokes gained from tee to green (via the free data at DataGolf.com):
Ryan Gerard (+5.17)
Tyrrell Hatton (+5.02)
Jhonattan Vegas (+4.99)
Robert MacIntyre (+4.90)
Keegan Bradley (+4.58)
And here are the top five in strokes gained on approach:
Nico Echavarria (+6.10)
Ryan Gerard (+3.24)
Kurt Kitayama (+3.19)
Tony Finau (+2.90)
Thorbjorn Olesen (+2.66)
Notable poor putting performances from Round 1:
Dustin Johnson: (-0.35 T2G, -0.34 APP, -4.90 PUTT)
Justin Rose: (+0.50 T2G, +0.76 APP, -3.74 PUTT)
Russell Henley: (-0.82 T2G, -1.81 APP, -3.43 PUTT)
Let’s see who we are targeting for the second round at Quail Hollow:
PGA DFS Round 2 Pick
Scottie Scheffler shot 69 in the opening round, and the overall ballstriking data looked quite strong.
He gained 3.91 strokes tee to green overall, and if he can avoid the mistakes, we like his chances of going lower than 69.5 on sites like Underdog.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes
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PGA Championship Outright Winner Picks
This week the PGA Tour kicks off the turn into the summer season with the second major of the year, the PGA Championship.
The event is hosted at a regular Tour stop: Quail Hollow Country Club in Charlotte, NC.
This course has a long history, but contemporarily it might as well be known as “The House that Rory Built” as the 2025 Masters Champ has really made his mark here over the course of his career, winning four times here, including two of the last three and mixing in four more top 10’s along the way.
There’s a pretty simple correlation for this: the course is a veritable “ballstriker’s paradise” leaning incredibly heavily on distance off the tee as well as accuracy, and one of the most demanding and rewarding courses on approach that we will see all year. And these are areas where Rory really has a huge advantage.
All that said, none of this is a secret to the public or the oddsmakers and he is an easy hard-fader this week. It’s just way too public of a play, especially coming off the Masters victory and all the attention on him.
With all the factors, it’s reasonable to slot him just a shade behind Scottie, but both of their payouts are just too low to chase here.
Instead the clear pivot is to Bryson Dechambeau, at nearly twice the payout if you can still get him at +950 on DraftKings.
Datagolf has Scottie, Rory, and Bryson rated as +3.12, +3.08 and +2.96 strokes gained projections with all recent form and course metrics included, which are truly just a razor’s edge of difference.
Bryson has his driver working and as he proved through three rounds at Augusta, he can hang with anyone in the world, especially at a course that rewards distance like we have again here.
It’s just pretty easy math that he’s the outlier play amongst the favorites here, after fading in full public view at the Masters and once again tailing the others in public perception due to being buried on LIV … he’s firing on all cylinders coming into this event and it’s an easy number to pull the trigger on.
The next best play is our old friend Daniel Berger at 100/1. He’s certainly at a disadvantage here length-wise but he’s going to win on tour sooner than later, and that 100 number on DK is just a slap in the face.
Berger has 9 consecutive top 30s on tour, including a 2nd and a 3rd just two starts ago in an elevated-field event at the RBC. In the past 30 days the leaders in this field in adjusted strokes gained ballstriking (off the tee + approach) are Scheffler, Bryson, Berger, McIlroy, and Cantlay – in that order. 100 is just too much even with a length disadvantage … and accuracy as well as being able to stop approach shots off of fairway lies on the Uber-fast greens will be important here as well with the rough grown out for the major championship setup.
This brings us to our final play, which is Patrick Cantlay. Obviously for the reason listed above as well – the simple story is that Cantlay is trending.
We can be a little ahead of the curve here, which is a good spot since it should be no surprise to see Cantlay contending in a major championship. Probably one of the least likeable guys on Tour, his play suffered while he took on a big role off the course dealing with LIV negotiations and restructuring the Tour. He’s pretty much “back” however, but public perception hasn’t fully caught up. And in-form Cantlay is almost always going to be in the 20/1-25/1 range at a major, and he seems to be in form, so that 45/1 number on DK is worth hopping on.
Best Bets:
Bryson DeChambeau +950
Daniel Berger +10000
Patrick Cantlay +4500
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How To Bet On PGA – Golf Props & DFS Tips
Betting on golf is in many ways a completely different animal than normal head-to-head sports betting. However, fundamentally it is the same baseline proposition: can we find expected value against the value offered by the marketplace?
The situation is skewed however because in golf win betting we are often dealing with tournament results and not head-to-head results, which give us tantalizing payouts and maddening near-misses on odds that are dozens to hundreds of times the multipliers of most other sports.
Something to keep in mind: just like in real tournament golf, patience and discipline and belief in your process are key, and one big event can change your entire season.
So, how do we find expected value in golf?
The Importance Of Data
Really simply, we want to find golfers who have a chance of playing better than it seems they are playing. Datagolf.com is by far the pre-eminent resource for this in the industry, but the fact is their numbers are completely public and the Vegas lines immediately tail them. Buying a Data Golf subscription alone and just playing their numbers alone will NOT make you profitable. The advanced analytics are available to everyone, including oddsmakers.
The key is learning to understand why the DG numbers are what they are, and how we can dig into the details to find trends that are actionable. DG uses a strict formula to combine past results and recent results to create a projection, and it is the best overall formula anyone has ever made, but what we want to look for are golfers who can make a case that they don’t fit the exact model, and have value that isn’t being captured by the Data Golf projections.
So in layman’s terms, here are some really great ways you can find potential value in a golf tournament field:
Recent Form
Golfers who have a track record of playing very well, but have had some bad results lately that we expect them to bounce back from (if recent poor results are just due to poor putting alone, this is ideal, as putting is by far the most variable category in golf)
Young golfers whose true value is still increasing every week and hasn’t been captured properly by the modeling timelines that are used by Vegas and Datagolf, as well as being slow to catch the public’s eye
Golfers who have been playing extraordinarily well lately, but historically aren’t that good, are not well captured by Vegas models. For example a golfer having a “breakout” year can be slow to pop in the industry models. This is an especially good situation if we can tie this performance increase to something tangible, such as a swing coach change, an offseason increase in driving distance, or another technique change or injury comeback situation.
In these cases, we want to put particular emphasis on driving and iron play, as these are less likely to be the result of random fluctuations in performance.
Course Fit
The last angle that can sometimes be used to get an edge is extreme course-fit outlier situations. The thing about mathematical models is that they can be weak in truly capturing extreme outliers.
On the PGA Tour, course fit week-to-week is much talked about and a very entertaining aspect of the game for fans and commentators, but it is generally very well accounted for by Vegas, and most tend to over-value these adjustments.
OVERALL FORM AND RATING IS ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN COURSE-FIT — a good fit for the course should always just be the icing on the cake for a good play.
One thing to look out for is the really extreme length outliers – the very longest and very shortest few courses each season, that truly limit a portion of the field from competing with their best weapons.
This happens in just a few events per year, but it does happen, and there you can find value in a true “specialist” in the field, such as guys who make their career through putting and putting alone, or an absolutely wild bomber who doesn’t gain many strokes through the rest of the bag.
