Golf Props Today – Outright Winner & Round 2/3/4 Picks

This week’s PGA Tour stop is in the sunny California Desert, marking the return of the Tour to the continental US and the beginning of the ramp-up to some big events.

We get a change of pace this week, as the course is hosted, as it always is, amongst three different host sites. The Stadium Course will host the final round, and the players will all rotate between the three sites for the first three rounds.

Another wrinkle this week is that the tournament is a Pro Am event – which doesn’t really change anything from our standpoint, but it is a little different vibe, as the rounds are sometimes a little slower and playing alongside the amateurs can be an acquired taste for some pros. However, everybody here knows exactly what they are getting into, and it’s not their first rodeo, so we aren’t going to overanalyze that aspect.

The more notable story from a handicapping perspective is that we can start to lean a little more on ball striking this week than we have in some of the “wraparound” events over the winter.

Typically the Stadium Course is known as a slightly shorter, second-shot golf course – meaning approach play is key. Jon Rahm once criticized this tournament as a “putting contest” in frustration on a hot mic, but on paper – especially as some better players have joined in recent years – when you add all three courses together it plays as a fairly balanced week, ultimately slightly rewarding length and testing all aspects of the game.

The Amex would have had one of its best fields in recent history this year, but the late withdrawals of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele have dealt a blow to promoters and opened up the top of the field considerably. Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im come in RED HOT. Most everyone knows that about Sungjae but Justin Thomas’ rounding into form really isn’t getting the attention it deserves yet.

Those two are clearly the two men to beat coming in at around +1200 widely available, and we have zero criticisms to levy against betting on either one at that number, but we feel like there’s a wider margin to exploit by dropping down a half-tier to get Tom Kim at +3000 on DraftKings or Kurt Kitayama at +3500 on FanDuel.

These are mostly just “playing the number” on an overall edge for two very solid players who have shown they can nip big tournaments and have plenty of recent success to feel good about coming in. Are they better than JT and Sungjae? Absolutely not. But at almost triple the payout? There’s an edge there.

In the mid-tier we can butter our bread with Jhonattan Vegas at +8000 on BetMGM and FanDuel. He was quickly bet down as low at +6500 some other places, so if you want him, don’t wait too long. He finished 4th place at the Sentry in Hawaii two weeks ago and did so almost purely through complete dominance on approach, which should serve him well here and give him a chance to recapture some magic at the site of his maiden PGA Tour victory in 2011, despite not having the exact same rotation of host courses.

A pivot from that, which is a dead horse we will keep beating until he comes back to life, is Daniel Berger. Something to note is that in golf, a lot of the best plays are long-term plays – you have to ride a guy for a few weeks or even months chasing a big multiplier payout. Berger almost did it to end 2024, finishing in 2nd place as he continues to claw his way back from major back surgery.

But the ceiling is still there, despite some erratic results, he continues trending and should be watched out for, for the time being. At +9000 at BetMGM, he’s worth a flier considering he’s still under the radar and has consistently dominated this event from tee to green the past three times he’s played it.

Finally this week, we get to delve into some really exciting places, as the depths of this field actually can produce some gems for us. All of this comes with the caveat that … while picking golf winners is never a game of consistency, we are REALLY getting into lottery-ticket levels here … but there are some really good reasons and angles to consider a couple of plays that are well outside the favorites this week.

The first one is Taylor Montgomery, who is available at +40000 on FanDuel as of this writing. That is an egregious number, and while Taylor hasn’t posted a bunch of good results since getting his card, he remains a super interesting big-game player because he has one of the highest upside putting games we’ve ever seen, statistically. The interesting thing is he actually flashed some very proficient ballstriking last time out in Hawaii, it was a rare week where he just didn’t putt well.

This is a good trend to follow, as it’s very reliable to bet on him putting well sooner rather than later, and if he does, he could be in position for a VERY high finish, much like he did when he shot -24 here in 2023. I’d take him at +30000 or better. Montgomery could easily have nothing this week and flame out, but if he hits it anywhere close to what he did last week, there is no ceiling on what he can do here, which is pretty interesting for a guy with such long odds.

The last is a new player to the Tour: Korn Ferry journeyman Brian Campbell. The 31-year-old rookie had a dramatically better year last year than he has ever had in his career, finishing 2nd place three times in the season and putting up consistently good results all year long, and capping his campaign with a 2nd place in the KFT championship. He followed that up by having to withdraw from his first PGA Tour start of the season due to an illness, but he was hitting his irons and putting at an elite level in the one round we got to see him.

Brian Campbell is probably not going to be a world-beater on Tour this season, but he’s a lot better than what his +40000 odds to win at BetMGM give him credit for. This number is likely skewed because of some uncertainty around the withdrawal, which, as an illness, should be a non-factor here a week later.

This would be a good spot to place a top 20 or similar bet, but the numbers aren’t that great in that range, the +40000 to win, as unlikely as it is, has more value long-term than +750 to finish top 20, so unless his odds lengthen a little bit, we’ll lean towards just taking a small lottery ticket, because that number is a bit extreme given how well he’s played the past 12 months.