In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf props and picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, our top winner plays and analysis will be posted, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3 and Round 4. Let’s see if we can pick some winners!
Round 2/3/4 Picks – The Valspar Championship
Each week we take a look at our favorite golf picks for Rounds 2, 3 and 4 on sites like Underdog and Sleeper.
Round 3 Picks
Jacob Bridgeman holds a narrow one-shot lead after two rounds at the Valspar Championship. Byeong Hun An, Ryo Hisatsune and Viktor Hovland are in the group a shot back, while Xander Schauffele trails by two after a strong Round 2.
Who are we looking at for Saturday’s action in Florida?
Though he wasn’t quite as sharp yesterday, Sahith Theegala has been solid overall at the event, gaining +1.45 strokes tee to green and +1.32 strokes off the tee.
If he can iron out his approach play — he lost almost a stroke on approach in Round 2 — we think Theegala has a great shot at shooting lower than 70.
Top Play: Sahith Theegala LOWER Than 70 (Underdog)
Through the first two rounds at The Valspar, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Xander Schauffele (+3.73)
Byeong Hun An (+3.23)
Davis Riley (+3.03)
Shane Lowry (+2.96)
Andrew Novak (+2.87)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Xander Schauffele (+2.67)
Joe Highsmith (+2.35)
Davis Riley (+2.17)
Sami Valimaki (+2.13)
Will Zalatoris (+2.10)
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Round 2 Picks
After the first round at the Valspar Championship, we’ve got a group of four at four-under part after the first round which includes Sami Valimaki, Keith Mitchell, Stephan Jaeger and Ricky Castillo.
Conditions were not the easiest in Round 1 and the course played pretty difficultly, so it’ll be interesting to see what the setup has to offer on Friday.
Here’s who sticks out in Round 2 at this weaker-field event:
Xander Schauffele was solid in the opening round, shooting one-under while gaining almost two strokes (1.98) on the field tee to green according to Data Golf.
As one of the top talents in the field, we like Schauffele’s chances of hanging around near the top of the leaderboard throughout Friday and into the weekend.
Top Play: Xander Schauffele LOWER Than 69 Strokes (Underdog)
Through the first round at The Valspar, here are the top five in strokes gained tee-to-green (via Data Golf):
Ryan Fox (+6.90)
Stephan Jaeger (+4.91)
Luke List (+4.84)
Nick Hardy (+4.26)
Andrew Novak (+3.89)
Top five in strokes gained on approach so far (via Data Golf):
Ryan Fox (+4.95)
Matthieu Pavon (+4.02)
Sami Valimaki (+3.56)
Quade Cummins (+3.20)
Nick Hardy (+3.10)
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Round 4 Picks
Coming soon!
Check back later this week.
Winner Picks – The Valspar Championship
This week’s PGA Tour stop is at the Copperhead Course at Innsbrook for the Valspar Championship near Tampa, FL.
The course is on me of the more unique designs on Tour as it is one of the most extreme courses when it comes to being short off of the tee and very tight and difficult on approach, even. It’s a rare course that is very short but still can play quite difficult, relying heavily on driving accuracy, scrambling, and putting.
There is a break for the players in that the wind is going to lay down especially over the weekend. Normally anything close to -10 is good enough to be in contention here but we might see players go a little bit lower here this week with very calm weather.
The first play on the board is the driving accuracy maestro Corey Conners. He also rates as one of the best overall ball strikers teeing it up this week, and is playing extremely well lately coming off a 6th and a 3rd at the Players and API, respectively. He’s also got a history of two very solid performances here in two tries. He’s one of the favorites for a reason, but at +2500 on FD and DK he’s got a much better number than some of the other studs in this field.
Lucas Glover is cut from a similar mold, and a guy who can really thrive on tight courses that favor driving accuracy, which is his long-time forte.
Also coming off of a 3rd place last week as well as a 3rd place last month at Pebble, a course that favors similar statistics, Glover plays a TON of tournaments and just keeps on cooking. He always relies on whether or not his putter shows up in order to really contend, but the past couple of years he’s found a groove where it shows up enough to keep him very relevant at age 45.
Glover also has a strong and consistent record here capped with an 11th in 2024. There’s not as much room on his number but as long as +4500 is around on FanDuel I’ll take him.
Joel Dahmen has been featured in this space recently, as he continues an interesting resurgence. Valspar is a good opportunity for another great but shorter, more accurate ball striker. His putting is spotty and he’ll need it to come through this week, which is no guarantee, but since it’s failed him the past two weeks he’s buried at +10000 which is a little low for a guy who is in-line with his career-best numbers in 7 starts so far this season.
Best Bets:
Corey Conners +2500
Lucas Glover +4500
Joel Dahmen +10000
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