In this weekly feature, we will take a closer look at the upcoming PGA Tour event to see what the best outright winner values are on the board and also analyze some of our other favorite golf props and DFS PGA picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, our top winner plays and analysis will be posted, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3, and Round 4. Let’s see if we can pick some winners!
Golf Props Today – Outright Winner & Round 2/3/4 Picks
Every week, we look at our top outright winner picks for the upcoming tournament. We’ll then examine Rounds 2, 3, and 4 from a DFS and betting perspective.
3M Open WINNER PICKS
TPC Twin Cities plays host to the 3M Open this week, days after the conclusion of The Open Championship across the pond.
It’s not the strongest of fields the week after the major, but there are still some notable heavy hitters taking part.
Here are our top outright plays:
Jake Knapp (+3400)
It hasn’t taken long for Knapp to make a strong impression on tour. He picked up his maiden win last year at the Mexico Open and has strung together quite a few positive results in weaker-field events.
Knapp is one of the best pure ballstrikers on tour and is in nice form, having gone T27-T4-T21-T22 over his last four starts. We like the outright number and general upside he posseses.
Adam Scott (+4500)
He’s not a young pup anymore, but don’t sleep on Adam Scott’s game. He’s still one of the best in the business and can win any given tournament, despite failing to make the cut at The Open Championship last week.
Winner of 14 PGA Tour events over his career, Scott had looked strong in the ballstriking department in the few tournaments leading up to Royal Portrush, and we expect a much better showing out of the veteran at TPC Twin Cities.
Keith Mitchell (+5500)
Mitchell has popped here a couple times, finishing 5th in both the 2023 and 2021 events, so it’s clear he has an affinity for the setup and conditions in Blaine, Minnesota.
The long hitter hasn’t been at his sharpest recently and will be looking to regain his form from April and May, when he pulled off a string of T-7-T18-T2-T12-T18. A +5500 outright number is appealing for a player of Mitchell’s pedigree and caliber.
3M Open Round 2
Content coming soon!
Check back later.
3M Open Round 3
Content coming soon!
Check back later.
3M Open Round 4
Content coming soon!
Check back later.
The Open Championship Round 4
It’s been the Scottie Scheffler show for large parts of the British Open. Will he close it out on Sunday?
Here are the leaders in strokes gained on approach through the first three rounds at The Open Championship, via Data Golf:
Scottie Scheffler (+2.69)
Haotong Li (+2.44)
Matt Wallace (+1.75)
Harris English (+1.68)
Tyrrell Hatton (+1.67)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 3:
Keegan Bradley (+1.90 Tee To Green, +0.67 Approach, -1.93 Putting)
Tyrrell Hatton (+3.17 Tee To Green, +1.36 Approach, -1.20 Putting)
Top DFS Pick’em Targets
Who are we targeting in Round 4?
He’s not in the running for the win, but we’re rolling with Tommy Fleetwood to close out his major in positive fashion.
Fleetwood has been playing strong golf for months now, and the conditions have been favorable for scoring so far at the British Open.
Top Play: LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes (Underdog)
The Open Championship Round 3
Scottie Scheffler went bananas in Round 2, shooting -7 to finish as the leader after two days.
Here are the leaders in strokes gained on approach through the first couple rounds at The Open Championship, via Data Golf:
Scottie Scheffler (+3.59)
Haotong Li (+3.08)
Harris English (+2.50)
Brian Harman (+2.45)
Jon Rahm (+2.20)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking from Round 2:
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4.95 Tee To Green, +2.58 Approach, -2.54 Putting)
Jon Rahm (+1.44 Tee To Green, +1.31 Approach, -1.83 Putting)
Top DFS Pick’em Targets
Who are we targeting in Round 3?
It’s Jon Rahm who gets the nod. He’s set to tee off early on Saturday.
Though he’s a ways off the lead, Rahm has looked strong ballstriking-wise, having gained 1.81 strokes tee to green and 2.20 strokes on approach.
We expect Rahm, who has been in tremendous form on LIV, to make a run over the weekend, starting with a lower round on Saturday.
Good luck!
Top Play: LOWER Than 69.5 Strokes (Underdog)
The Open Championship Round 2
Five players are tied at -4 after the first round at The Open Championship. Scottie Scheffler is lurking nearby at -3 and looked sharp on the first day.
Here were the leaders in strokes gained on approach, via Data Golf:
Scottie Scheffler (+4.17)
Jon Rahm (+3.09)
Haotong Li (+2.84)
Aaron Rai (+2.80)
Sam Burns (+2.69)
Notable poor putting/positive ballstriking:
Niklas Norgaard (+2.81 Tee To Green, +1.73 Approach, -2.95 Putting)
Jhonattan Vegas (+1.78 Tee To Green, +1.15 Approach, -2.01 Putting)
Top DFS Pick’em Targets
We are looking at Rory McIlroy with our PGA DFS picks for Round 2.
McIlroy shot -1 in the first round, gaining 1.75 strokes tee to green and 1.95 strokes on approach.
In great form and only a few shots back of the lead as we get closer to the weekend, we expect the superstar to keep his foot on the gas and finish below 70.5 strokes.
Top Play: LOWER Than 70.5 Strokes (Underdog)
The Open Championship WINNER PICKS
It’s known as “The Open” to some and the “British Open” to others. The PGA TOUR travels across the pond for the final major of the year. Of course, the event is … not being played in Great Britain! It is being played in Northern Ireland, for maybe the third time ever, which is, of course, part of the United Kingdom.
All geographical wrangling aside, this is a venue that has only hosted once before in what I’ll loosely call the “modern era” (in 2019), with Shane Lowry earning the victory.
We’re going to look at the Datagolf numbers from 2019 for our course fit expectations, and it’s fairly neutral, which is great for a major championship. Let the best golfer win!
Ultimately, driving the ball matters a lot here. Both long hitters and very accurate drivers have an equal advantage here, and they aren’t punished much if they lack in the other category. There’s not a lot of lean at all based on course fit, but if there is one, it’s the good drivers.
Historically, during every British Open, we hear a lot of hemming and hawing about “traditional links golf” and the weather conditions. But on paper, what we get are randomizing factors.
Statistically, projection-wise, throw all the window-dressing out – the British Open is the most random of all the majors. Period. Save the other stuff and fancy angles to play up for the TV commentators about whose ball “gets through the wind” and who is “mentally tough enough.”
At the end of the day, this is a tournament to take some pot-shots with. Sorry, Scottie Scheffler! He’ll get it done eventually, and it could be this year. He’s definitely the most likely to win, but there’s just so much going on that it makes it more likely for somebody else to jump up and snipe one, so that’s what we will be focusing on.
Ben Griffin
Our first best bet is Ben Griffin, who has played like Scheffler-lite since May, with the exception of last time out when he pooped the bed on the greens at the John Deere.
This is the perfect opportunity where it LOOKS like a guy lost momentum with a MC, but in fact, he still gained strokes in every category. He just had a meltdown on the greens in 2 quick rounds. Completely excusable.
It’s still hard to say what exactly has been in Ben Griffin’s Wheaties since May, but it’s enough to take notice and take a chance that he’s really hit on something. Those are some big-boy tournaments in that stretch, and it’s not just one or two flukey starts. He’s extremely undervalued here at 90-1.
Maverick McNealy
Maverick McNealy is entering nearly obligatory mention status until he wins, or starts fading with his ball striking. It sounds like a broken record, but this guy is one of the most analytically advanced players on TOUR and has started really hitting the ball well this year in a true breakout form, and is ready to win a second one.
His number has moved since opening, but 110-1 is still available on some books, so grab it while you can because that’s significantly above the rest of the market. Put it this way: he’s still ranked better than Brian Harman or Shane Lowry were when they won this tournament in their respective years.
Taylor Pendrith
Taylor Pendrith gets the “long time, no see” award in this column, as he’s been quite an interesting play many times during the season. Most notably due to his bombing the ball and great putter, he has an always-tantalizing combo of a win-bet hound. He had a little lull in his season, but he has been mashing it and draining putts since mid-May, where he kicked off this latest run with a T5 at the PGA.
He’s certainly not a world-beater, but he has a ton of upside. These are really long odds at a tournament where longshots can compete more than any other major.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Not to be confused with his brother, Rasmus, who completely ejected himself from last week’s Scottish after being selected in this column. We had the wrong Hojgaard, as Nicolai finished 4th and brings a lot of momentum into this event.
His driving distances have REALLY shot up since the lead-in to the Masters, and he’s never been short. But this is an interesting leading indicator that his ball-striking performances are not a fluke. He is typically about 10-15 yards past the field across the last few seasons, and he’s been putting up performances of 25+ yards past the field more often than not during that stretch.
A streaky putter, like his brother, he tends to be really hot or cold with his long game. This is a great pattern in the modern game, and his odds are still quite long even after last week’s finish, so there’s enough upside there to have some skin in the game. Hopefully, we’re on the right Hojgaard, but both twins continue to be exciting young European talents.
The Open Championship Best Bets:
- Ben Griffin +9000
- Maverick McNealy +11000
- Taylor Pendrith +15000
- Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
How To Bet On PGA – Golf Props & DFS Tips
Betting on golf is in many ways a completely different animal than normal head-to-head sports betting. However, fundamentally it is the same baseline proposition: can we find expected value against the value offered by the marketplace?
The situation is skewed however because in golf win betting we are often dealing with tournament results and not head-to-head results, which give us tantalizing payouts and maddening near-misses on odds that are dozens to hundreds of times the multipliers of most other sports.
Something to keep in mind: just like in real tournament golf, patience and discipline and belief in your process are key, and one big event can change your entire season.
So, how do we find expected value in golf?
The Importance Of Data
Really simply, we want to find golfers who have a chance of playing better than it seems they are playing. Datagolf.com is by far the pre-eminent resource for this in the industry, but the fact is their numbers are completely public and the Vegas lines immediately tail them. Buying a data subscription alone and just playing the numbers will NOT make you profitable. The advanced analytics are available to everyone, including oddsmakers.
The key is learning to understand why the DG numbers are what they are, and how we can dig into the details to find trends that are actionable. DG uses a strict formula to combine past results and recent results to create a projection, and it is the best overall formula anyone has ever made, but what we want to look for are golfers who can make a case that they don’t fit the exact model, and have value that isn’t being captured by the Data Golf projections.
So in layman’s terms, here are some really great ways you can find potential value in a golf tournament field:
Recent Form
Golfers who have a track record of playing very well, but have had some bad results lately that we expect them to bounce back from (if recent poor results are just due to poor putting alone, this is ideal, as putting is by far the most variable category in golf)
Young golfers whose true value is still increasing every week and hasn’t been captured properly by the modeling timelines that are used by Vegas and Datagolf, as well as being slow to catch the public’s eye
Golfers who have been playing extraordinarily well lately, but historically aren’t that good, are not well captured by Vegas models. For example a golfer having a “breakout” year can be slow to pop in the industry models. This is an especially good situation if we can tie this performance increase to something tangible, such as a swing coach change, an offseason increase in driving distance, or another technique change or injury comeback situation.
In these cases, we want to put particular emphasis on driving and iron play, as these are less likely to be the result of random fluctuations in performance.
Course Fit
The last angle that can sometimes be used to get an edge is extreme course-fit outlier situations. The thing about mathematical models is that they can be weak in truly capturing extreme outliers.
On the PGA Tour, course fit week-to-week is much talked about and a very entertaining aspect of the game for fans and commentators, but it is generally very well accounted for by Vegas, and most tend to over-value these adjustments.
OVERALL FORM AND RATING IS ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN COURSE-FIT — a good fit for the course should always just be the icing on the cake for a good play.
One thing to look out for is the really extreme length outliers – the very longest and very shortest few courses each season, that truly limit a portion of the field from competing with their best weapons.
This happens in just a few events per year, but it does happen, and there you can find value in a true “specialist” in the field, such as guys who make their career through putting and putting alone, or an absolutely wild bomber who doesn’t gain many strokes through the rest of the bag.
