In this weekly feature, we analyze some of our favorite golf props and DFS PGA picks for Rounds 2-4.
Early in the week, we may post some of our favorite winner plays, and we’ll then check in with our favorite selections for Round 2, Round 3, and Round 4.
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Golf Props Today – Round 2/3/4 Picks
Every week, we examine Rounds 2, 3, and 4 from a DFS and betting perspective.
Genesis Invitational – Round 4
Jacob Bridgeman holds a six-shot lead over Rory McIlroy heading into the final round. Will he hang on for the victory?
Leaders in strokes gained: tee to green through three rounds (via Data Golf):
- Jacob Bridgeman (+2.47)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.27)
- Wyndham Clark (+1.97)
- Kurt Kitayama (+1.92)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.73)
- Adam Scott (+1.68)
- Tom Kim (+1.66)
Leaders in strokes gained: approach:
- Jacob Bridgeman (+2.35)
- Si Woo Kim (+1.61)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.51)
- Patrick Rodgers (+1.41)
- Sami Valimaki (+1.40)
- Ryan Gerard (+1.07)
- Collin Morikawa (+1.05)
Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting performances from yesterday:
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.11 Tee To Green, -3.24 Putting)
Tom Kim (+5.32 Tee To Green, -2.46 Putting)
Xander Schauffele (+1.96 Tee To Green, -2.09 Putting)
Rory McIlroy (+2.15 Tee To Green, -1.29 Putting)
A few of the most popular golfer picks for the final round on the Underdog app:
Top Round 4 Plays
A quick overview of our favorite golfers
Rory McIlroy < 68.5 Round Strokes — It’s a steep hill to climb, but you wouldn’t want to bet against Rory making some magic happen late on Sunday. The ballstriking has looked quality at this tournament, and he was actually let down by the putter a little in Round 3 (-1.29 strokes) despite a strong tee to green performance.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Tommy Fleetwood < 68.5 Round Strokes
Viktor Hovland < 69.5 Round Strokes
Good luck!
Editor’s Note: Did you know DFS pick’em apps like Underdog and Sleeper are live in many states where online sports betting isn’t yet legal? Use promo code PROPS to get top-tier sign-up bonuses!
Genesis Invitational – Round 3
Marco Penge and Jacob Bridgeman lead the way at -12 through two rounds, but we’ve got the likes of Rory McIlroy (-11) and Xander Schauffele (-9) close by.
Leaders in strokes gained: tee to green through two rounds (via Data Golf):
- Wyndham Clark (+3.40)
- Kurt Kitayama (+2.73)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.33)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2.29)
- Adam Scott (+2.27)
- Marco Penge (+1.94)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.92)
Leaders in strokes gained: approach:
- Sami Valimaki (+2.56)
- Collin Morikawa (+1.46)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.40)
- Patrick Rodgers (+1.28)
- Shane Lowry (+1.28)
- Jhonattan Vegas (+1.22)
- Ryan Gerard (+1.21)
Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting performances from yesterday:
Nico Echavarria (+3.15 Tee To Green, -2.72 Putting)
Keegan Bradley (+2.83 Tee To Green, -2.40 Putting)
Ben Griffin (+2.80 Tee To Green, -1.37 Putting)
Wyndham Clark (+2.54 Tee To Green, -1.11 Putting)
A few of the most popular golfer picks for the third round on the Underdog app:
Top Round 3 Plays
A quick overview of our favorite golfers
Hideki Matsuyama < 68.5 Round Strokes — We expect lower scores across the board on Moving Day. This number feels a tad too high for a golfer of Matsuyama’s caliber.
Scottie Scheffler < 66.5 Round Strokes — Back to the well with Scheffler, even though he fell a shot short for us yesterday. His game was much more dialed in, so don’t be surprised to see another weekend charge.
Good luck!
Editor’s Note: Did you know DFS pick’em apps like Underdog and Sleeper are live in many states where online sports betting isn’t yet legal? Use promo code PROPS to get top-tier sign-up bonuses!
Genesis Invitational – Round 2
The first round at the Genesis Invitational was severely delayed by inclement weather, so Friday should be a bit messy as the tournament tries to play catchup.
We’ll check back with our favorite afternoon plays once Round 1 has concluded.
Leaders in strokes gained: tee to green through one completed round (via Data Golf):
- Viktor Hovland (+3.42)
- Jhonattan Vegas (+3.38)
- Max Greyserman (+3.26)
- Rory McIlroy (+3.13)
- Pierceson Coody (+2.98)
- Collin Morikawa (+2.32)
- Patrick Rodgers (+2.25)
Leaders in strokes gained: approach:
- Jhonattan Vegas (+4.47)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3.22)
- Max Greyserman (+2.55)
- Patrick Rodgers (+2.55)
- Jacob Bridgeman (+2.14)
- Collin Morikawa (+2.11)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.82)
Notable positive ballstriking/poor putting performances from yesterday:
Ryan Gerard (+1.55 Tee To Green, -2.64 Putting)
Kurt Kitayama (+1.81 Tee To Green, -1.90 Putting)
Patrick Rodgers (+2.25 Tee To Green, -2.34 Putting)
Viktor Hovland (+3.42 Tee To Green, -1.51 Putting)
Jhonattan Vegas (+3.38 Tee To Green, -1.47 Putting)
NOTE: Exact data numbers are subject to change as golfers finish their Round 1. We will aim to update once the opening round concludes.
A few of the most popular golfers on the Sleeper Picks app:
Top Round 2 Plays
A quick overview of our favorite golfers
Scottie Scheffler < 67.5 Round Strokes — Brutal Round 1 for Scheffler, especially with the putter. He’s rebounded brilliantly after some slower starts recently. Will he do it again?
Tommy Fleetwood > 4.5 Birdies Or Better — Fleetwood is sitting at -2 after a solid first round in which he gained strokes tee to green and on approach. Conditions are expected to be more favorable on Friday, so we think he’ll keep putting on pressure at the top of the leaderboard.
Good luck!
Editor’s Note: Did you know DFS pick’em apps like Underdog and Sleeper are live in many states where online sports betting isn’t yet legal? Use promo code PROPS to get top-tier sign-up bonuses!
PGA Strategy – Golf Props & DFS Tips
Betting on golf is in many ways a completely different animal than normal head-to-head sports betting.
However, fundamentally it is the same baseline proposition: can we find expected value against the value offered by the marketplace?
The situation is skewed, because in golf win betting we are often dealing with tournament results and not head-to-head results, which give us tantalizing payouts and maddening near-misses on odds that are dozens to hundreds of times the multipliers of most other sports.
Something to keep in mind: just like in real tournament golf, patience and discipline and belief in your process are key, and one big event can change your entire season.
So, how do we find expected value in golf?
The Importance Of Data
Really simply, we want to find golfers who have a chance of playing better than it seems they are playing.
Buying a data subscription alone and just playing the numbers will NOT make you profitable. The advanced analytics are available to everyone, including oddsmakers.
The key is learning to understand why the data is what it is, is how we can dig into the details to find trends that are actionable.
Sites uses a strict formula to combine past results and recent results to create a projection, and it is the best overall formula anyone has ever made, but what we want to look for are golfers who can make a case that they don’t fit the exact model, and have value that isn’t being captured by projections.
So in layman’s terms, here are some really great ways you can find potential value in a golf tournament field:
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Recent Form
Golfers who have a track record of playing very well, but have had some bad results lately that we expect them to bounce back from (if recent poor results are just due to poor putting alone, this is ideal, as putting is by far the most variable category in golf)
Young golfers whose true value is still increasing every week and hasn’t been captured properly by the modeling timelines that are used by Vegas and Data Golf, as well as being slow to catch the public’s eye.
Golfers who have been playing extraordinarily well lately, but historically aren’t that good, are not well captured by Vegas models.
For example, a golfer having a “breakout” year can be slow to pop in the industry models. This is an especially good situation if we can tie this performance increase to something tangible, such as a swing coach change, an offseason increase in driving distance, or another technique change or injury comeback situation.
In these cases, we want to put particular emphasis on driving and iron play, as these are less likely to be the result of random fluctuations in performance.
Course Fit
The last angle that can sometimes be used to get an edge is extreme course-fit outlier situations. The thing about mathematical models is that they can be weak in truly capturing extreme outliers.
On the PGA Tour, course fit week-to-week is much talked about and a very entertaining aspect of the game for fans and commentators, but it is generally very well accounted for by Vegas, and most tend to over-value these adjustments.
OVERALL FORM AND RATING IS ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN COURSE-FIT — a good fit for the course should always just be the icing on the cake for a good play.
One thing to look out for is the really extreme length outliers – the very longest and very shortest few courses each season, that truly limit a portion of the field from competing with their best weapons.
This happens in just a few events per year, but it does happen, and there you can find value in a true “specialist” in the field, such as guys who make their career through putting and putting alone, or an absolutely wild bomber who doesn’t gain many strokes through the rest of the bag.
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