Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 7 of the NCAAF season.
Our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 7, as some of these picks are used in that article as well.
Best College Football Bets: Week 7
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Oregon-Washington Over 67.5 Points (-105)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 67.5 Points | -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Washington and Oregon haven’t performed well in terms of the over this season. Washington owns a 2-3 over/under record, while Oregon brings a 1-4 over/under record into this game.
This is one of the most interesting matchups of the week, though. Oregon and Washington haven’t generally played teams that have enough offensive firepower to make them play their “normal” style for four quarters.
These two teams currently rank second (Washington – 0.706) and fourth (Oregon – 0.641) in points per game this season. They’re also both elite in points allowed per game, although I favor elite offenses over elite defenses in college football.
Oddly enough, both of these teams have been slow offenses thus far. That likely has to do with running the clock out late in blowouts, though, and I expect them to play much faster in this particular matchup.
There is an onslaught of offensive weapons in this game, including two of the best quarterbacks in the NCAA. I don’t believe these defenses are going to be able to keep the number of elite threats at bay, giving an edge to the over.
Rutgers -4.5 (vs. Michigan State)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Rutgers -4.5 | -110 at FanDuel
Rutgers has quietly been dominant against the spread (ATS) this season. They enter this game with a 5-0-1 ATS record, beating the spread by an average of 8.2 points per game. Their only push was a 24-point loss to Michigan.
Michigan State hasn’t been as successful in 2023. They own a 2-2-1 ATS record, failing to cover by an average of 4.4 points per game. They also haven’t covered the spread since their win against Richmond over a month ago.
There are two key factors that point toward Rutgers winning this game. First, they have the more dynamic offense. Both teams want to run the ball, but Michigan State has an uninspiring backfield outside of Nate Carter. Rutgers is more dynamic with three solid options in their backfield, including quarterback Gavin Wimsatt.
I’m not entirely sure that Rutgers’ passing offense is better than Michigan State, but I trust it more. The second factor is that Michigan State is much more turnover-prone than Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights offense is only turning the ball over 0.7 times per game while averaging 1.3 takeaways per game. The Spartans are averaging 1.2 takeaways per game, but they’re also turning the ball over a ridiculous 2.4 times per game.
Noah Kim only has 19 more pass attempts than Wimsatt this season, but he’s thrown 4 more interceptions. Kim’s also thrown each of his 6 interceptions over his last three games.
We’re getting a shockingly low spread for a game where Rutgers should have the edge everywhere, and they have home-field advantage.
Oregon-Washington Over 67. 5 (-110)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Over 67.5 | -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook
This is a marquee game because it could determine who gets into the PAC-12 championship, but also because there will be 34 NFL scouts in attendance.
It’ll feature Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix, two quarterbacks that could be Day 1 picks in the upcoming draft. Nix and Penix have led the second and third-best scoring offense respectively, they’re both top five in passer efficiency, and Vegas has them in contention for the Heisman Trophy.
I was expecting this total to run into the 70s, maybe because both defenses are inside the top 30 in points allowed, but for a matchup like this, that goes out the window.
Syracuse +17.5 (at Florida State)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Syracuse +17.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
Syracuse started the season 4-0, but after losses to UNC and Clemson, they’re quickly falling down the ACC standings.
The most significant difference between now and last year is that the defense took a step back, and Garrett Schrader is not someone who leads an offense with his arm. While Lequint Allen has done well, it’s nowhere near the level of Sean Tucker.
Florida State sits at No. 4 and deservedly so, but their season could easily have been over with the last few games. They had to go to overtime against an unranked Clemson, then followed it up with another near upset against Boston College. They were able to convincingly beat Virginia Tech, but the defensive front continued to give up yards on the ground, and VT had 209 rushing yards. That’s how the Orange will stay in this game, and it could be another close one for the Seminoles.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 6-6
- John Supowitz: 5-7
More College Football Predictions & Props
Props.com has plenty of NCAAF picks and predictions for Week 6, including the following: