Bucks vs. Heat Player Props & Predictions – Tuesday, Feb 13

Nov 28, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dribbles the ball up the court against the Miami Heat during the second half at Kaseya Center.
Image Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

For your Bucks vs. Heat prediction needs, we’ve got you covered as the Heat hit the road to face the Bucks on Tuesday, Feb 13 at 8:00 ET. Currently, the total sits at 222.5, with the Bucks favored by 8.5 at home. Keep reading to get our Bucks vs. Heat player props and predictions.

Bucks vs. Heat Odds

  • Spread: Bucks -8.5
  • Total 222.5

Game Info

  • Date: Tuesday, Feb 13
  • Time: 8:00 ET
  • Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee WI
  • TV: BSW

Heat Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 3-1-1 vs. the spread.
  • In their last ten games away from home, the Heat have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 2-6-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 103 points per game in this stretch.
  • Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 0-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-4.

Bucks Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 1-4 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
  • In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Bucks have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Will the Heat Pull Through as the Away Underdog?

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 21-32, and the team has hit the under in two straight games. This year, their games have averaged 221.1 points per game compared to today’s O/U line of 222.5.

In their last game against the Celtics, the teams combined for 216 points, which was below the O/U line of 224. Miami lost the game by a score of 110-106, and they covered the spread as 8-point underdogs.

Looking at their ATS record for the season, the Heat are 23-27 overall and have covered the spread in three straight games. On the road, they are 11-11 ATS compared to 12-16 ATS at home.

As underdogs this season, the Heat are 6-15 straight-up and 9-12 against the spread. They have lost six straight games as underdogs and are currently 8.5-point underdogs vs. the Bucks.

In the Eastern Conference standings, Miami is in 8th place with a record of 28-25. Against the East, they are 20-16 and 11-2 vs. their division. On the road, the Heat are 13-12 compared to 15-13 at home.

Heading into tonight’s game, the Heat are 27th in the NBA in scoring at 110.4 points per game. However, they have been better offensively at home compared to on the road. At home, Miami is averaging 113.1 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.

When it comes to pace, the Heat are 28th in the NBA at 96.3 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, Miami is 27th in the league at 46%. They have also struggled from two-point range, shooting 51% on the season (27th).

From beyond the arc, the Heat are 11th in the NBA at 37% and are averaging 12.3 made threes per game (17th). In terms of free throws, Miami is 8th in the league at 18.9 made free throws per game.

Not only do the Heat’s overall defensive numbers look good, as they are 4th in the league in points allowed. Miami has also been playing well on defense of late, ranking 15th in the league over their last three games at 103 PPG allowed. On two point field goal attempts, the Heat’s defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.5% and allowing 36.9% from beyond the arc.

Will Milwaukee Make it Happen at Home?

At 29-25-0, the Bucks have seen their last two games go under the O/U line, and today’s line of 222.5 is lower than all of their previous games this season. On average, their games have finished with 241.6 points.

Looking at their ATS record of 21-33, the Bucks have covered the spread in their last two games, and they are favored by 8.5 points today. Against the spread, they are 12-17 at home and 9-16 on the road.

In their last game, the Bucks defeated the Nuggets by a score of 112-95. Milwaukee was favored by 1 point going into the game, and the win improved their overall record to 35-19, which is 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

Against Western Conference teams, the Bucks are 10-7 this season compared to 25-12 against the East. In their most recent game, they were favored by 1 point and have now been favored in 48 of their 54 games this season.

When playing at home, the Bucks are averaging 124.2 points per game, which is 2nd in the league. Overall, they are 2nd in scoring at 122.7 points per game. So far this season, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 72.2% of their games.

In terms of pace, Milwaukee is 4th in the league at 101.4 possessions per game. They are also 4th in field goal percentage at 49%. When it comes to two-point shooting, they are 2nd in the league at 58%.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks are 6th in three-point shooting at 37%. On average, they are making 14.3 three-pointers per game, which is 5th in the NBA. In terms of free throws, Milwaukee is 3rd in made free throws at 19.9 per game.

As they prepare for the upcoming game, the Bucks is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 118.9 points per game (23rd). In the terms of takeaways, Bucks are causing 12.4 turnovers per game, ranking 10th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 17th in rejections, averaging 5.2 blocked shots each game.

Bucks vs. Heat Player Props

A player prop we are looking at is Tyler Herro and his points prop of 23.5.

Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -127 while the under is at -108. In his matchup vs. the Bucks, we are recommending to take the under on Tyler Herro and his prop of 23.5 points. Our player projection model has him falling short of his prop with a projected 21.

  • The Prop: Tyler Herro Under 23.5 Points (-108)

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Bucks vs. Heat Predictions

We’re putting our money on the Bucks to win, and have the projected score sitting at 124-110. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Bucks at -8.5.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 222.5 and our model has the Heat and Bucks finishing with a combined 234 points. Our pick is to take the over.

The Pick: Bucks -8.5 | at Fanduel Sportsbook