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Below, you’ll see our top NFL prop picks across different categories like yardage, touchdowns, interceptions, completions, attempts, and more. In other words, if there’s an NFL player prop with value, then you better believe we are going for it.
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Best NFL Player Props: Week 12 TNF
Our analysts run through their favorite NFL player props for the major slates each week.
Looking for more Week 12 analysis? Check out all of our Week 12 content linked below.
- Week 12: TNF Content Hub
- Week 12: TNF First TD Props
- Week 12: TNF Anytime TD Props
- Week 12: TNF Last TD Props
Russell Wilson Pass Attempts – Higher Than 26.5
This week’s Thursday Night Football features an old-school AFC North rivalry game. The Steelers and Browns will square off in Cleveland in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. The total currently sits at just 36.5 points, so neither team is expected to light up the scoreboard.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that expectations for Wilson are pretty low. Wilson is also coming off his worst game of the season in Week 11, racking up just 205 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception against a weak Ravens’ pass defense. The result was an average of just 4.44 adjusted yards per attempt.
Still, Wilson threw the ball 36 times in that matchup, and he’s attempted at least 28 throws in all four starts. Even if this game doesn’t feature a ton of offense, I still think he should be able to get back to that threshold.
The Browns had a historically good pass defense last year, but they’ve regressed badly in 2024. They’re merely 16th in pass defense EPA, and opposing QBs have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game when facing them.
Maybe the Steelers blow the Browns out and Wilson spends most of the second half handing it off to his running backs, but Pittsburgh is favored by just 3.5 points on the road. The Steelers also have a track record of underperforming in these types of spots under head coach Mike Tomlin.
I’m ultimately expecting this game to go down to the wire, and if that’s the case, this number is simply too low.
Where to play: Russell Wilson Pass Attempts – Higher Than 26.5 | Underdog
Jerome Ford Rushing Yards – Higher Than 14.5
Nick Chubb is still the Browns’ lead running back, and he’s in no real jeopardy of losing that gig. However, his efficiency has left a lot to be desired since returning to the lineup. That’s not a huge shock after undergoing surgery last season, but he’s averaged just 3.1 yards per attempt through his first four games. Chubb was a historically efficient running back in his prime, averaging 5.2 yards per attempt for his career, but it’s possible he’s just not the same player anymore.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Ford has maintained a solid role in the team’s backfield. He’s played on at least 47% of the snaps in back-to-back games, and he handled 26% of the team’s carries last week vs. the Saints. Ford finished with just five carries for 10 yards in that outing, but he’s averaged 4.9 yards per attempt for the year. If he can carve out another four to six carries vs. the Steelers, I like his chances of getting to 15+ yards.
Ultimately, you could choose to go the volume route instead and play higher than 4.5 attempts, but I think the yardage number gives us a few more outs. Even if Ford only sees two or three carries in this matchup, he still has the chance to rip off one big run.
Where to play: A.J. Brown Receptions – Lower Than 5.5 | Underdog
Where To Place NFL Prop Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your NFL player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NFL player props.
You can’t go wrong with DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in your state:
NFL Fantasy Player Props
We love the NFL player props available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper Fantasy. These fantasy player props aren’t technically sports betting picks, but they offer a very similar experience to prop-betting parlays.
You’ll often find the juiciest lines and payouts odds for NFL props available at legal DFS sites. These apps are available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
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Check out the Props.com NFL Betting Guide and Guide To Prop Betting for more on how to bet NFL props.
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PrizePicks and other DFS apps offer fantasy prop contests that are very similar to prop betting. Check out our Apps Like PrizePicks guide, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).
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