What’s better than watching a moonshot home run? Watching a slugger blast that ball into orbit and winning cash along the way!
Below you’ll find our best home run props for today, carefully chosen by our experts for value, matchup strength, and payout potential, along with odds-based favorites, and team and game-level HR props.
Similar to our NRFI and strikeout props, these picks are updated daily, so be sure to check back tomorrow for a fresh batch of bets.
Whether you’re after value plays, top sluggers, or strategy tips, everything you need to make smarter home run bets is right here.
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Best Home Run Player Props Today: Tuesday, October 7
These are the best home run prop bets today, according to our daily research. Each pick offers value and is backed by expert analysis and up-to-date stats to give you an edge. We highlight hitters with the right matchup, form, and power to go long, so you can bet with more confidence.
Editor’s Note: Follow our MLB news hub for more FREE expert picks, props, and analysis throughout the entire 2025 season!
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. More Than 0.5 Home Runs
After sweeping the Yankees in a four-game series earlier this season, the team’s broadcast booth got a bit excited.
They pulled out brooms to celebrate, which caused Yankees’ broadcaster Michael Kay to fire back. He told them not to “hang on the rim” in the third quarter, implying that there were more important games still to come.
Well, we’ve officially reached the “more important games,” and the Blue Jays are still cruising.
They took each of the first two games in their ALDS series vs. the Yankees, winning by a combined score of 23-8. They got a brilliant start from rookie Trey Yesavage in Game 2, who pitched 5.1 hitless innings with 11 strikeouts before giving way to the bullpen.
However, the Yankees are far from dead. They’ll have home-field advantage for the next two games, and they’ll have an edge on the bump as well.
They’ll send Carlos Rodon to the mound in Game 3, and Rodon was excellent in 2025. He pitched to a 3.09 ERA with 9.35 strikeouts per nine innings, and he won 18 games.
Still, this Blue Jays’ lineup feels like a buzzsaw at the moment, with Guerrero leading the charge. He hit a massive grand slam in Game 2 of this series, and he’s homered in each of the first two contests.
Guerrero’s power numbers were slightly down during the regular season – he hit just 23 homers – but he remains a massive threat in that department.
He ranks in the 97th percentile for bat speed, 90th percentile for hard-hit rate, and 88th percentile for average exit velocity. His max exit velocity also put him in the top 1% for MLB players in 2025.
Guerrero is at his most dangerous when facing southpaws. He posted an elite 163 wRC+ against left-handers this year, and he had a higher ISO in that split as well.
Guerrero is a ridiculous 10-17 against Rodon for his career, including one homer and three doubles. It’s a matchup he can clearly find success in, so let’s go back to the well with him in Game 3.
Where to play: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. More Than 0.5 Home Runs | 3.83x at Sleeper
Jorge Polanco More Than 0.5 Home Runs
The series between the Tigers and Mariners may not have quite as much vitriol as Yankees-Blue Jays, but it’s been just as entertaining.
The Tigers won the first game of the series, but the Mariners managed to get past Tarik Skubal and even things up in Game 2. Now, the series will shift to Detroit for two games, before heading back to Seattle for a potential Game 5.
Polanco has been one of the hottest hitters on the planet in recent weeks. He ended the regular season with homers in two of his final three games, and he picked up right where he left off in the playoffs. He’s slugged two homers vs. Detroit, giving him an OPS of 1.500.
After battling Skubal on Sunday, the Mariners will have a much less daunting task in Game 3. They’ll have to face Jack Flaherty, who is not quite the same dominant pitcher that he was in his prime. Flaherty pitched to a 4.64 ERA during the regular season, and he allowed 1.24 homers per nine innings.
All of the hitters in this contest will also benefit from a solid park upgrade on Tuesday. T-Mobile Park in Seattle grades out as one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball.
Comerica Park in Detroit is much more neutral, so there’s a much better chance for offense than we saw in the first two games. Each of the first two games saw just five total runs, but I’d expect a few more fireworks on Tuesday.
Where to play: Jorge Polanco More Than 0.5 Home Runs | Betr Picks
Five Players With the Shortest Odds
- Aaron Judge (+220; BetMGM): Judge headlines a quartet of Yankees on this list, which is not surprising. He hasn’t gotten off to a great start this postseason from a power standpoint, but he’s still the best hitter in all of baseball. He’ll square off with Shane Bieber on Tuesday, who allowed 1.79 homers per nine innings in his seven starts with the Blue Jays during the regular season.
- Giancarlo Stanton (+250; FanDuel): Stanton is also a massive power threat. He had the fastest average bat speed in the majors this season, and he launched 24 homers in just 249 at-bats. Like Judge, he’s still looking for his first postseason homer, but he’s very capable of going deep in this spot.
- Cal Raleigh (+260; BetMGM): Raleigh is the lone non-Yankee on this list, and he led all players with 60 homers during the regular season. Only Judge, Babe Ruth, and Roger Maris had previously cracked the 60-homer plateau in the AL, so it was a historic year for the Mariners’ backstop. Raleigh had a big double in the team’s Game 2 victory, and he certainly has the potential to go deep on Tuesday.
- Trent Grisham (+427; DraftKings): Grisham had a career year with the bat in 2025. He was always known as a great defender in centerfield, but he had never done much as a hitter. He broke out with 34 homers for the Yankees this season, becoming a huge contributor at the top of their lineup. He’ll have the splits advantage vs. Bieber, and 27 of his homers came against righties this season.
- Ben Rice (+430; FanDuel): Rice is another very dangerous lefty bat for the Yankees. He has elite batted-ball data, ranking in the 95th percentile or better for average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and expected slugging. He had 26 homers during the regular season in just 463 at-bats.
Top Team Target: New York Yankees
As much as the Yankees have struggled in this series, it’s hard to look at anyone else on Tuesday. Their back at their home ballpark – one of the best for homers in baseball – and they’re facing a pitcher who struggles to keep the ball in the stadium. They lead all teams with a 4.2 implied run total.
Worst Team Target: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers will have to deal with Logan Gilbert on Tuesday, who is the most talented pitcher on this slate. Gilbert struggled a bit in the middle of the season, but he rounded into form down the stretch. He pitched to a 2.30 ERA in September, and he’s not someone the Tigers are going to enjoy facing.
If you’re not in a state with legal sports betting, don’t sweat it – the top legal DFS apps offer extensive menus of fantasy props, which play very similar to prop bets at online sportsbooks. Check out our overview of the best DFS apps for MLB.
Where to place home run prop bets
You’ve got three solid ways to bet on MLB prop bets: sportsbooks, fantasy pick’em apps, and sweepstakes sites. Sportsbooks offer real-money betting. DFS apps like Underdog let you build pick’em slips. And sweepstakes sites let you play for prizes, even in states without legal sportsbooks. Here are our favorite sites along with the best sportsbook promos you can take advantage of with your MLB betting.
Legal sportsbooks
Disclaimer: Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars all offer daily MLB player props for home runs during the MLB season. You can bet on a player to hit a homer, parlay props together, or choose team-based home run bets.
If you’re in a legal betting state, these books are your best bet for high limits, extensive betting options, and fast payouts.
DFS pick’em apps
Underdog and Sleeper let you pick players to go over or under home run lines. It works just like prop betting, but it’s legal in more states, thanks to fantasy rules.
You pick two or more players. If all your picks hit, your payout multiplies. It’s quick, simple, and legal in places where sportsbooks aren’t.
You can also check out:
Sweepstakes sites
Thrillzz, Novig, and Fliff are legal in most U.S. states. You use virtual currency instead of cash, then play games that look and feel like real prop betting.
They’re free to try, and you can win real cash prizes through sweepstakes systems. These are great if you’re in a state without legal sportsbooks or DFS pick’em access.
MLB Prediction Market Sites
Kalshi is the first fully regulated prediction market in the United States dedicated solely to trading on the outcome of future events.
Interested in trying it out? Click the banner below!
Home run prop bet types, odds & win conditions
You’ve seen our expert picks for the best home run props today, and now know where to place your bets. Next, we’ll show you the different types of HR props available, different ways to bet on home runs, the stats that matter, and how to spot value when building your HQ betting strategy.
We’ll start with a concise overview table, then dig into the fine print.
| Bet Type | Description | Typical Odds | Key Influencing Factors | Win Conditions | Loss Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player to Hit a Home Run | Will a specific player hit at least one home run? | Plus money (+150 to +700+) | Batter stats, pitcher stats, ballpark, weather, matchup history, recent form | Player hits one or more home runs. | Player does not hit a home run. |
| First Player to Hit a Home Run | Which specific player will hit the first home run of the game? | Higher plus money than “Player to Hit a Home Run” | All of the above, plus batting order, early-game pitcher tendencies | Selected player hits the first home run of the game. | Another player hits the first home run, or no home runs are hit. |
| Player to Hit Multiple Home Runs | Will a specific player hit two or more home runs in the game? | Very high plus money (+1000+) | All of the above, plus player’s current power surge, multi-homer history | Player hits two or more home runs. | Player hits zero or one home run. |
| Total Home Runs in a Game (Over/Under) | Will the total home runs by both teams be over or under a set number? | Around -110 for both over and under | Pitching quality of both teams, ballpark home run factor, weather conditions, overall offensive power of both teams | Total home runs are over or under the predicted number. | Total home runs are on the opposite side of the predicted number. |
| Will Any Player on a Team Hit a Home Run? | Will at least one player from a specific team hit a home run? | Varies, can be plus or minus money | Team’s overall power, opposing pitcher’s HR/9, ballpark, weather | At least one player on the team hits a home run. | No players on the team hit a home run. |
| Which Team Will Hit More Home Runs? | Which of the two teams in the game will hit more home runs? | Varies depending on team power and pitching matchups | Overall power of each team, opposing pitchers’ tendencies, ballpark, weather | Selected team hits more home runs than the opponent. | Opponent hits more home runs, or a tie occurs (check sportsbook rules for ties). |
| First Team to Hit a Home Run | Which of the two teams will be the first to hit a home run in the game? | Varies, often favors the team batting first or with early power in the lineup | Strength of the top of each team’s lineup, starting pitchers’ early tendencies, which team bats first | Selected team hits the first home run of the game. | Other team hits the first home run, or no home runs are hit. |
Types of player-based home run props explained
Home run player prop bets let you bet on specific players hitting home runs in a game. These props fall into three main types: betting on a player to hit at least one home run, betting on who hits the first home run of the game, and betting on a player to hit multiple home runs. Each bet type works differently, but they all depend on power, matchups, and opportunity.
Single player to hit a home run
This is the most popular home run prop. You’re betting on a specific player to hit at least one home run during the game. If they clear the fences at any point, including extra innings, then you win. If they don’t, you lose.
Odds are typically listed as “Player to hit a Home Run: Yes,” with no “No” option offered because it would be heavily favored.
A slugger like Kyle Schwarber might be listed at +180 to +250, while a less frequent power hitter like Nico Hoerner could be +700 or more. A winning $100 bet on Schwarber at +250 returns a $250 profit.
First player to hit a home run
This bet is tougher and riskier. You’re picking the first player to hit a home run in the entire game. It doesn’t matter which team they play for. If anyone else homers first, your bet loses, even if your player hits a HR later.
Payouts are higher because it’s harder to hit. Odds for a first home run can be +800 or more. A $50 bet at +800 returns a $400 profit.
Player to hit multiple home runs
This is a longshot bet with a big upside. You’re betting that a player hits two or more home runs in a single game. These props usually appear as “Player to hit 2+ HR” and can carry odds from +1000 to +5000 or higher.
You win if the player hits at least two homers. You lose if they hit zero or one. And a single homer won’t cut it.
Imagine placing a $20 bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +1200 in a matchup against a thin Colorado Rockies rotation in Coors Field. If he hits one in the 2nd inning and another in the 6th, you win $240 profit. But if he only hits one, the bet loses.
Or, say you bet Matt Chapman will hit 2+ HR at +1500, and he crushes one early but fails to get another, then it’s still a loss.
These bets rarely cash because even big-name sluggers only have a handful of multi-homer games each year. So these bets are best used for fun or when the numbers really line up.
Team and game-based home run prop types explained
You can bet on home runs in baseball beyond individual players with prop bets that focus on what happens at the team or game level. You can wager on total homers, compare two teams, or predict which team hits one first.
We’ll start by looking at the over/under of total home runs in a game.
Total home runs in a game (over/under)
This bet is about how many total home runs both teams hit in a single game. The sportsbook sets a line, usually a half number like 2.5, and you pick if the actual total will be over or under.
If you bet the over, you’re saying there will be 3 or more homers. The under wins with 2 or fewer. If the line is a whole number and exactly that many homers happen, it’s usually a push, and your bet is refunded.
Odds typically hover around -110 but can move based on betting trends. Extra innings count unless your book says otherwise.
Will any player on a team hit a home run?
This bet asks a simple question: Will at least one player on a specific team hit a home run? Odds reflect how likely that is.
For a power team facing a weak pitcher, “Yes” might be -200. For a weaker team in a pitcher’s park, “No” might be +160.
This prop is really a team-specific over/under at 0.5 home runs.
Even strong teams can go homerless, especially if their big slugger gets shut down. Meanwhile, a team with modest hitters might sneak one out.
You win if you bet ‘yes’ and anyone on the team hits a homer, or you win if you bet ‘no’ and the team doesn’t homer at all. Extra innings count, and the result is a binary 0 vs. 1 or more.
Which team will hit more home runs?
This prop is a simple head-to-head game in which you bet on which team will hit more home runs in a game.
There are two formats:
- 3-way line: Team A, Team B, or Tie
- 2-way line: Team A or Team B; a tie means a push/refund
Odds vary based on lineup strength and pitching matchups.
Quite simply, you win if your team hits more homers, and you lose if the other team does. A tie either refunds your bet or loses the bet, depending on how the bet was set up.
First team to hit a home run
This prop is a race, betting on which team will hit the first home run in the game? Sometimes, there’s a third option for No HR, but often, it’s just Team A vs. Team B.
If no home runs happen, the bet is either voided or refunded unless you specifically bet on No HR.
This bet can be settled early because if one team hits a homer before the other, that’s it. If both hit in the same inning, the first to do it by time wins.
Parlay and combo home run props explained
Parlay and combo home run props link two or more picks into one bet. You only win if every leg hits.
Say you bet Matt Olson to hit a home run and the Braves to win, then both must happen for you to win. If Olson homers but Atlanta loses, the whole bet loses. The odds from each leg are multiplied, so payouts are higher, but the risk is too.
You can pair player props across different games, like Olson to homer in one and Mookie Betts in another. Or you can tie a home run to a team result in a same-game parlay. Some sportsbooks boost these bets, but they may restrict combinations that are too closely tied. For example, a player homering often helps his team win, but both parts must still hit.
Live or in-game home run props explained
Live props let you place bets during a game, when the play is actually in progress and the game is in live action. Provided odds update based on the action in the game.
You might see markets like “Will there be a home run in the 7th inning?” or “Next player to homer.” You’re reacting to real-time info here, making bets based on who’s batting, who’s pitching, the weather, the score, and how players seem to be performing live in the here and now.
Important terms and conditions for HR props
Every sportsbook has its own rules for home run props, and knowing these is essential to prevent any surprises affecting won or lost bets, or pushes and refunds:
- Player must play: If your player doesn’t start or bat, your bet is refunded. Some books count pinch-hit appearances as official plate appearances, while others require the player to start. If the player is ejected before batting, most books void the bet, but always check your sportsbook’s rules.
- Pitching changes: HR props stay live even if the starting pitcher changes last-minute.
- Game completion and weather: A game must go at least 8.5 or 9 innings to count. If it’s postponed or ends early, due to weather or any other reason, bets are usually void unless the outcome already happened.
- Extra innings count: Unless stated otherwise, home runs in extras count just like early-inning ones.
- Lineup changes: If your player starts and then exits, the bet still stands. For team-based props, a late scratch doesn’t affect your wager.
- Parlay rules: If one leg of a multi-game parlay is void (e.g., a scratched player), that leg is dropped. In same-game parlays, many sportsbooks void the entire bet if one leg is removed due to correlation issues.
- Settlement and stat corrections: Bets usually pay out after the game ends. If a stat is changed later (rare), books might adjust results, but most treat the end-of-game result as final and ignore any post-game changes.
The golden rule is to check your book’s rules before betting. Confirm lineups, understand void policies, and avoid betting before you know who’s playing. If anything unusual happens, like a delay or a lineup change, read the fine print or ask support before assuming your bet is live.
Final thoughts
Betting on home run props can make the game more fun. You start watching at-bats more closely, checking matchups, and paying attention to things like park size, weather, and pitcher tendencies. It gives you a reason to dig into stats, learn more about different players, and stay engaged all game long, even if your team isn’t playing. The research becomes part of the fun, and when your picks win, it’s even better.
