What’s better than watching a moonshot home run? Watching a slugger blast that ball into orbit and winning cash along the way!
Below you’ll find our best home run props for today, carefully chosen by our experts for value, matchup strength, and payout potential, along with odds-based favorites, and team and game-level HR props.
Similar to our NRFI and strikeout props, these picks are updated daily, so be sure to check back tomorrow for a fresh batch of bets.
Whether you’re after value plays, top sluggers, or strategy tips, everything you need to make smarter home run bets is right here.
Best HR Prop Sites in The United States
Best Home Run Player Props Today: Wednesday, May 14
These are the best home run prop bets today, according to our daily research. Each pick offers value, and is backed by expert analysis and up-to-date stats to give you an edge. We highlight hitters with the right matchup, form, and power to go long, so you can bet with more confidence.
Expect these picks to be in by 1 p.m. EST every day.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. More Than 0.5 Home Runs (3.86x)
Guerrero signed a massive contract extension at the beginning of the season, but it has been an uncharacteristic year for the slugging first baseman. He’s still hitting the ball for a decent average (.284), but his power numbers are way down. He’s sitting on just four homers, while his slugging percentage is down roughly 130 points compared to last season. It’s a far cry from the type of numbers when he burst onto the scene, particularly his 48 homers back in 2021.
Still, nothing under the hood suggests Guerrero shouldn’t be producing from a power standpoint. He still swings the bat as hard as just about anyone, ranking in the 95th percentile for bat speed. He also makes phenomenal contact, ranking in the 80th percentile for barrel rate, 87th percentile for hard-hit rate, and 90th percentile for average exit velocity. Add it all up, and his xSLG is 75 points higher than his actual mark.
The power should come around for Guerrero eventually, and he’s priced very fairly for a matchup vs. Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot hasn’t had a bad season for the Rays, but his 4.43 xERA is nothing to write home about. He’s struggled in most strikeout and batted-ball metrics, and he’s allowed a whopping 1.62 homers per nine innings.
Pepiot’s biggest struggles have come in righty-righty matchups, surrendering a .551 slugging percentage in that split. Guerrero has never had an at-bat against Pepiot previously, but there’s no reason he can’t go yard in this spot. Ultimately, I’m looking to buy low on one of the best pure hitters in baseball.
Where to play: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. More Than 0.5 Home Runs | Sleeper
Evan Carter More Than 0.5 Home Runs (+825)
Carter is a former big-time prospect, grading out as No. 14 overall per FanGraphs back in 2024. He was outstanding in his first taste of major league action back in 2023, posting a massive 182 wRC+ with five homers in just 23 games, and he helped propel the Rangers to a World Series victory.
Carter has struggled to reach those heights since then. He was limited to just 45 MLB games last season, and his numbers were down across the board. He’s only managed to appear in eight games so far this season, and he has just an 88 wRC+.
Still, Carter has managed to go yard in one of those outings, and his 14.3% barrel rate is outstanding. If he can maintain that figure moving forward, he should hit plenty of dingers.
His matchup on Wednesday is absolutely elite. He’s taking on Antonio Senzatela, who has been batting practice for most of the season. Senzatela has pitched to a 5.77 ERA and 6.98 xERA, and he’s allowed 1.85 homers per nine innings. His numbers have been slightly better outside of Coors Field, but opposing batters have still managed a .607 slugging percentage against him on the road.
I’m happy to target just about anyone at a solid price tag to homer against Senzatela, and Carter certainly fits the description.
Where to play: Evan Carter More Than 0.5 Home Runs | FanDuel
Most likely to hit a home run today
These are the players most likely to hit a home run today based on the odds. This quick look highlights which players the sportsbooks expect to hit one out, relying only on the shortest market odds rather than expert picks, even if the value isn’t always there. So if you’re wondering, “Who will hit a home run today?”, the most likely answer is one of the picks below! But of course, that’s reflected in the somewhat low odds on offer.
- Shohei Ohtani (+195; BetMGM): Even though Ohtani’s 12 homers rank tied for the fifth-most in baseball, he’s atop the odds leaderboard on Wednesday. He continues to make some of the best contact in the league, ranking in the 100th percentile for barrel rate, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and xSLG. He’ll square off with Gunnar Hoglund on Wednesday, who has impressed as a rookie but will face by far his biggest test of his young career.
- Aaron Judge (+220; BetMGM): Judge isn’t far behind Ohtani, and they’re the clear top two hitters in baseball at the moment. Judge’s 14 homers are tied for the top mark in the league, and he’s also batting an absurd .410. It’s one of the most remarkable starts in recent memory. Judge will have to play in the most pitcher-friendly venue against Luis Castillo on Wednesday, but there isn’t a ballpark on Planet Earth that can hold Judge if he squares one up.
- Adolis Garcia (+250; BetMGM): Garcia benefits from the same elite matchup as Carter, and he has far more power potential than his five homers suggest. His xSLG is more than 100 points higher than his actual mark, and he ranks in the 90th percentile for barrel rate. He does swing and miss a ton, but that shouldn’t be a big issue vs. Senzatela: he’s averaged just 4.38 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (+285; FanDuel): Tatis is on a hot streak, homering in three of his past four games. It brings his total to 11 for the year, and he’s arguably the best hitter in baseball not named Judge or Ohtani at the moment. He ranks in the 96th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA, so there’s no reason to expect any regression moving forward. He also draws an extremely favorable matchup Wednesday vs. Kyle Hendricks, who is a shell of his former self.
- Salvador Perez (+350; FanDuel): Perez has just two homers for the year, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. His xSLG is nearly 200 points higher than his actual mark, and it puts him in the 90th percentile. No hitter has underperformed their expected slugging percentage by a higher degree this season. He’s a massive positive regression candidate moving forward, and that could start against a left-hander making his MLB debut in Colton Gordon.
Best Team & Game-Based Home Run Prop Picks Today
These are the best team and game-based home run props for today. These bets cover things like total home runs in a game, whether a team will hit one, or which team hits one first, giving you more ways to play beyond player props.
Top Team Target: Cincinnati Reds
I highlighted the Reds on Tuesday, and they had a paltry one run against the lowly White Sox. That said, I’m going right back to the well on Wednesday. They’re implied for another 5.6 runs, which trails only the Rangers on this slate. Opposing starter Davis Martin has an xERA over 6.00, and they still play in the most homer-prone stadium in the league.
Worst Team Target: Boston Red Sox
There are a couple of high-end pitchers on this slate, but none scare me as much as Tarik Skubal. He’s followed up last year’s Triple Crown-winning campaign with another phenomenal start in 2025, pitching to a 2.08 ERA with elite underlying metrics. He’s the best pitcher in baseball at the moment.
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Underdog 2025 MLBSZN home run picks
Below you’ll find our Underdog season-long picks to track as the 2025 season rolls on.
Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers
Michael Toglia is a masher on an upward trajectory after a modest breakout in 2024. According to FanGraphs, in 116 games and 458 plate appearances last season, Toglia swatted 25 homers with a 32.1 K%, a .218 batting average, a .456 slugging, and a .238 ISO. Toglia’s strikeout rate was high, but he did an outstanding job of managing the strike zone (26.2 O-Swing% versus 28.6% league average in 2024), and his 14.9 SwStr% in 2024 was a sizable improvement upon his 18.1 SwStr% in 2023. Toglia can continue to improve his strikeout rate.
When Toglia put the ball in play, his quality of contact was superb. In fact, he was rather unlucky last year, evidenced by his .244 expected batting average (xBA) and .503 expected slugging (xSLG), outpacing his .218 batting average and .456 slugging.
Toglia was a Statcast darling. According to Baseball Savant, among qualified hitters in 2024, Togia was 15th in barrels per plate appearances percentage (9.6 Brls/PA%), tied for fifth in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (17.3 Brls/BBE%), tied for 31st in fly-balls/line-drives average exit velocity (95.7 MPH), 17th in hard-hit percentage (50.2% of his batted balls traveled 95-plus MPH), and 23rd in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (39.2 LA SwSp%).
Roster Resource projects Toglia to primarily hit fifth against righties this year after tallying only 176 of his 458 plate appearances (38.4%) fifth or earlier in Colorado’s lineup last year. His plate appearances can surge with a full-time role and upgraded lineup spot this season. As a result, FanGraphs Depth Charts (26 homers), ZiPS (25 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (25 homers), ATC (24 homers), OOPSY (25 homers), and FantasyPros’ Zeile consensus projections (24 homers) project Toglia to surpass 23.5 homers this season.
Where to play: Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers | Underdog
Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers
Let’s start with the uncomfortable reason for selecting Cody Bellinger’s under for 24.5 homers. The Cubs traded Bellinger to the Yankees, and the veteran’s home ballpark is dreamy for left-handed homers. According to FantasyPros’ three-year park factor averages, Yankee Stadium has the fifth-highest park factor for left-handed home runs (1.238). Bellinger will undoubtedly hit some cheapies that leave under bettors tilted.
Nevertheless, Bellinger’s home ballpark can help him only so much. He hit 26 dongs in 2023 but fell back to Earth with only 18 in 2024. Bellinger’s 26 taters in 2023 were an outlier since his production cratered following his 2019 MVP campaign. Since 2020, he’s popped 12 round-trippers in 243 plate appearances, 10 in 350, 19 in 550, 26 in 556, and 18 in 569.
In 2,268 plate appearances since 2020, Bellinger has hit 85 homers. Thus, he’s averaged 0.0375 homers per plate appearance and 18.7 per 500 plate appearances. Even if you adjust to 600 plate appearances, Bellinger swatted only 22.5 homers per 600 plate appearances since 2020. Power hasn’t been in Bellinger’s tool belt.
Bellinger’s batted-ball data was lackluster last year, too. The lefty’s 2.60 batting average, .426 slugging, and .161 ISO exceeded his .242 xBA, .391 xSLG, and the manual calculation of his .149 xISO.
Among 252 qualified hitters last season, Bellinger was tied for 160th in barrels per plate appearance percentage (4.7 Brls/PA%), tied for 169 in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (6.3 Barrels/BBE%), tied for 215th in fly-ball/line-drive average exit velocity (90.6 MPH), 214th in hard-hit percentage (32.9%), and tied for 164th in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (32.9 LA SwSp%). Not even Yankee Stadium can cure all that ails Bellinger’s below-average batted-ball data, making 24.5 homers a line he’s unlikely to clear this year, and FanGraphs Depth Charts (23 homers), ZiPS (20 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (22 homers), ATC (21 homers), The BAT (22 homers), The BAT X (19 homers), OOPSY (21 homers), and Zeile Consensus Projections (21 homers) peg him for fewer than 24.5 bombs.
Where to play: Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers | Underdog
If you’re not in a state with legal sports betting, don’t sweat it – the top legal DFS apps offer extensive menus of fantasy props, which play very similar to prop bets at online sportsbooks. Check out our overview of the best DFS apps for MLB.
More expert MLB prop selections from Props.com
Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)
Best NRFI Bets Today – Top No Run First Inning Props (Daily Picks)
Where to place home run prop bets
You’ve got three solid ways to bet on MLB prop bets: sportsbooks, fantasy pick’em apps, and sweepstakes sites. Sportsbooks offer real-money betting. DFS apps like Underdog let you build pick’em slips. And sweepstakes sites let you play for prizes, even in states without legal sportsbooks. Here are our favorite sites along with the best sportsbook promos you can take advantage of with your MLB betting.
Legal sportsbooks
FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars all offer daily MLB player props for home runs during the MLB season. You can bet on a player to hit a homer, parlay props together, or choose team-based home run bets.
If you’re in a legal betting state, these books are your best bet for high limits, extensive betting options, and fast payouts.
DFS pick’em apps
Underdog and Sleeper let you pick players to go over or under home run lines. It works just like prop betting, but it’s legal in more states, thanks to fantasy rules.
You pick two or more players. If all your picks hit, your payout multiplies. It’s quick, simple, and legal in places where sportsbooks aren’t.
You can also check out:
Sweepstakes sites
Thrillzz, Novig, and Fliff are legal in most U.S. states. You use virtual currency instead of cash, then play games that look and feel like real prop betting.
They’re free to try, and you can win real cash prizes through sweepstakes systems. These are great if you’re in a state without legal sportsbooks or DFS pick’em access.
Home run prop bet types, odds & win conditions
You’ve seen our expert picks for the best home run props today, and now know where to place your bets. Next we’ll show you the different types of HR props available, different ways to bet on home runs, the stats that matter and how to spot value when building your HQ betting strategy.
We’ll start with a concise overview table, then dig into the fine print.
| Bet Type | Description | Typical Odds | Key Influencing Factors | Win Conditions | Loss Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player to Hit a Home Run | Will a specific player hit at least one home run? | Plus money (+150 to +700+) | Batter stats, pitcher stats, ballpark, weather, matchup history, recent form | Player hits one or more home runs. | Player does not hit a home run. |
| First Player to Hit a Home Run | Which specific player will hit the first home run of the game? | Higher plus money than "Player to Hit a Home Run" | All of the above, plus batting order, early-game pitcher tendencies | Selected player hits the first home run of the game. | Another player hits the first home run, or no home runs are hit. |
| Player to Hit Multiple Home Runs | Will a specific player hit two or more home runs in the game? | Very high plus money (+1000+) | All of the above, plus player's current power surge, multi-homer history | Player hits two or more home runs. | Player hits zero or one home run. |
| Total Home Runs in a Game (Over/Under) | Will the total home runs by both teams be over or under a set number? | Around -110 for both over and under | Pitching quality of both teams, ballpark home run factor, weather conditions, overall offensive power of both teams | Total home runs are over or under the predicted number. | Total home runs are on the opposite side of the predicted number. |
| Will Any Player on a Team Hit a Home Run? | Will at least one player from a specific team hit a home run? | Varies, can be plus or minus money | Team's overall power, opposing pitcher's HR/9, ballpark, weather | At least one player on the team hits a home run. | No players on the team hit a home run. |
| Which Team Will Hit More Home Runs? | Which of the two teams in the game will hit more home runs? | Varies depending on team power and pitching matchups | Overall power of each team, opposing pitchers' tendencies, ballpark, weather | Selected team hits more home runs than the opponent. | Opponent hits more home runs, or a tie occurs (check sportsbook rules for ties). |
| First Team to Hit a Home Run | Which of the two teams will be the first to hit a home run in the game? | Varies, often favors the team batting first or with early power in the lineup | Strength of the top of each team's lineup, starting pitchers' early tendencies, which team bats first | Selected team hits the first home run of the game. | Other team hits the first home run, or no home runs are hit. |
Types of player-based home run props explained
How run player prop bets let you bet on specific players hitting home runs in a game. These props fall into three main types: betting on a player to hit at least one home run, betting on who hits the first home run of the game, and betting on a player to hit multiple home runs. Each bet type works differently, but they all depend on power, matchups, and opportunity.
Single player to hit a home run
This is the most popular home run prop. You’re betting on a specific player to hit at least one home run during the game. If they clear the fences at any point, including extra innings, then you win. If they don’t, you lose.
Odds are typically listed as “Player to hit a Home Run: Yes,” with no “No” option offered because it would be heavily favored.
A slugger like Kyle Schwarber might be listed at +180 to +250, while a less frequent power hitter like Nico Hoerner could be +700 or more. A winning $100 bet on Schwarber at +250 returns a $250 profit.
First player to hit a home run
This bet is tougher and riskier. You’re picking the first player to hit a home run in the entire game. It doesn’t matter which team they play for. If anyone else homers first, your bet loses, even if your player hits a HR later.
Payouts are higher because it’s harder to hit. Odds for a first home run can be +800 or more. A $50 bet at +800 returns a $400 profit.
Player to hit multiple home runs
This is a longshot bet with a big upside. You’re betting that a player hits two or more home runs in a single game. These props usually appear as “Player to hit 2+ HR” and can carry odds from +1000 to +5000 or higher.
You win if the player hits at least two homers. You lose if they hit zero or one. And a single homer won’t cut it.
Imagine placing a $20 bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +1200 in a matchup against a thin Colorado Rockies rotation in Coors Field. If he hits one in the 2nd inning and another in the 6th, you win $240 profit. But if he only hits one, the bet loses.
Or, say you bet Matt Chapman will hit 2+ HR at +1500, and he crushes one early but fails to get another, then it’s still a loss.
These bets rarely cash because even big-name sluggers only have a handful of multi-homer games each year. So these bets are best used for fun or when the numbers really line up.
Team and game-based home run prop types explained
You can bet on home runs in baseball beyond individual players with prop bets that focus on what happens at the team or game level. You can wager on total homers, compare two teams, or predict which team hits one first.
We’ll start by looking at the over/under of total home runs in a game.
Total home runs in a game (over/under)
This bet is about how many total home runs both teams hit in a single game. The sportsbook sets a line, usually a half number like 2.5, and you pick if the actual total will be over or under.
If you bet the over, you’re saying there will be 3 or more homers. The under wins with 2 or fewer. If the line is a whole number and exactly that many homers happen, it’s usually a push, and your bet is refunded.
Odds typically hover around -110 but can move based on betting trends. Extra innings count unless your book says otherwise.
Will any player on a team hit a home run?
This bet asks a simple question: Will at least one player on a specific team hit a home run? Odds reflect how likely that is.
For a power team facing a weak pitcher, “Yes” might be -200. For a weaker team in a pitcher’s park, “No” might be +160.
This prop is really a team-specific over/under at 0.5 home runs.
Even strong teams can go homerless, especially if their big slugger gets shut down. Meanwhile, a team with modest hitters might sneak one out.
You win if you bet ‘yes’ and anyone on the team hits a homer, or you win if you bet ‘no’ and the team doesn’t homer at all. Extra innings count, and the result is a binary 0 vs. 1 or more.
Which team will hit more home runs?
This prop is a simple head-to-head game in which you bet on which team will hit more home runs in a game.
There are two formats:
- 3-way line: Team A, Team B, or Tie
- 2-way line: Team A or Team B; a tie means a push/refund
Odds vary based on lineup strength and pitching matchups.
Quite simply, you win if your team hits more homers, and you lose if the other team does. A tie either refunds your bet or loses the bet, depending on how the bet was set up.
First team to hit a home run
This prop is a race, betting on which team will hit the first home run in the game? Sometimes, there’s a third option for No HR, but often, it’s just Team A vs. Team B.
If no home runs happen, the bet is either voided or refunded unless you specifically bet on No HR.
This bet can be settled early because if one team hits a homer before the other, that’s it. If both hit in the same inning, the first to do it by time wins.
Parlay and combo home run props explained
Parlay and combo home run props link two or more picks into one bet. You only win if every leg hits.
Say you bet Matt Olson to hit a home run and the Braves to win, then both must happen for you to win. If Olson homers but Atlanta loses, the whole bet loses. The odds from each leg are multiplied, so payouts are higher, but the risk is too.
You can pair player props across different games, like Olson to homer in one and Mookie Betts in another. Or you can tie a home run to a team result in a same-game parlay. Some sportsbooks boost these bets, but they may restrict combinations that are too closely tied. For example, a player homering often helps his team win, but both parts must still hit.
Live or in-game home run props explained
Live props let you place bets during a game, when the play is is actually in progress and the game is in live action. Provided odds update based on the action in the game.
You might see markets like “Will there be a home run in the 7th inning?” or “Next player to homer.” You’re reacting to real-time info here, making bets based on who’s batting, who’s pitching, the weather, the score, and how players seem to be performing live in the here and now.
Important terms and conditions for HR props
Every sportsbook has its own rules for home run props, and knowing these is essential to prevent any surprises affecting won or lost bets, or pushes and refunds:
- Player must play: If your player doesn’t start or bat, your bet is refunded. Some books count pinch-hit appearances as official plate appearances, while others require the player to start. If the player is ejected before batting, most books void the bet, but always check your sportsbook’s rules.
- Pitching changes: HR props stay live even if the starting pitcher changes last-minute.
- Game completion and weather: A game must go at least 8.5 or 9 innings to count. If it’s postponed or ends early, due to weather or any other reason, bets are usually void unless the outcome already happened.
- Extra innings count: Unless stated otherwise, home runs in extras count just like early-inning ones.
- Lineup changes: If your player starts and then exits, the bet still stands. For team-based props, a late scratch doesn’t affect your wager.
- Parlay rules: If one leg of a multi-game parlay is void (e.g., a scratched player), that leg is dropped. In same-game parlays, many sportsbooks void the entire bet if one leg is removed due to correlation issues.
- Settlement and stat corrections: Bets usually pay out after the game ends. If a stat is changed later (rare), books might adjust results, but most treat the end-of-game result as final and ignore any post-game changes.
The golden rule is to check your book’s rules before betting. Confirm lineups, understand void policies, and avoid betting before you know who’s playing. If anything unusual happens, like a delay or a lineup change, read the fine print or ask support before assuming your bet is live.
Final thoughts
Betting on home run props can make the game more fun. You start watching at-bats more closely, checking matchups, and paying attention to things like park size, weather, and pitcher tendencies. It gives you a reason to dig into stats, learn more about different players, and stay engaged all game long, even if your team isn’t playing. The research becomes part of the fun, and when your picks win, it’s even better.