What’s better than watching a moonshot home run? Watching a slugger blast that ball into orbit and winning cash along the way! Props.com will outline the best HR props of the day in this article.
Similar to our NRFI and strikeout props, these home run props and picks will be updated every day, so be sure to check back tomorrow for the next pair of best bets to hit a home run.
Best HR Prop Sites in Ohio
Best HR Props Today: Friday, Mar. 28
Below are the top home run props according to our daily research.
Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run (+310)
So this Ohtani guy is pretty good, huh? After picking up his third MVP in four years – two in the American League, one in the National League – Ohtani has picked up right where he left off. He clubbed his first homer of the season in the team’s two-game trip to Japan vs. the Cubs, and he homered in his stateside opener vs. the Tigers on Friday. He owns a cool 1.500 OPS through his first three outings, and he’s one of the top picks to go yard basically on a nightly basis.
Ohtani will square off with former teammate Jack Flaherty on Friday. The Dodgers acquired Flaherty from the Tigers before the trade deadline last season, and he helped propel them to a World Series victory. Flaherty re-signed with the Tigers this offseason, so it will be interesting to see if they hold on to him this time around.
Flaherty had a bounce-back campaign in 2024, pitching to a 3.17 ERA between Detroit and Los Angeles. However, there are still some red flags in his profile. Flaherty still allows plenty of hard contact, with his barrel rate ranking in the 49th percentile. He’s also a fly ball pitcher, which is not a great combination. Flaherty allowed 1.33 homers per nine innings last season, and he’s never been below 1.0 at the MLB level.
Ohtani is capable of doing damage against right-handers that very few in baseball can match. He cranked 42 homers in that split last season, boasting an elite .395 ISO. Among players with at least 210 at-bats against righties last season, Ohtani’s ISO was tops in the league by a wide margin. Aaron Judge was second in that department, and he checked in 30 points lower at .365.
Ultimately, +310 might not feel like a great price tag, but I’d argue it’s a value with a hitter of Ohtani’s caliber. It translates to an implied probability of just 24.39%, and I think Ohtani’s true odds of going yard are probably higher.
Where to play: Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run (+310) | BetMGM
Bo Bichette to Hit a Home Run (+870)
They say that Father Time is undefeated, and he appeared to pick up another victory last year against Charlie Morton. Morton fought him off for as long as he could, seemingly getting better with each subsequent year. However, Morton slipped to a 4.19 ERA last season, and his underlying metrics were worse. His 4.46 FIP was his worst mark since 2010, and there was very little to like in his Statcast profile as well. He ranked in the 19th percentile for barrel rate, resulting in an average of 1.25 homers per nine innings.
Morton’s biggest struggles came in righty-righty matchups. Those batters hit 14 homers in 81.0 innings, good for an average of 1.56 per nine. Toronto has a righty-heavy lineup, making them an interesting target on Friday’s slate.
Bichette is coming off a lost season in 2024. He appeared in just 81 games, and he didn’t look like his usual self in those outings. He launched just four homers, and his 71 wRC+ was well below his career average.
The good news is that Bichette looked rejuvenated in Spring Training. He clubbed four homers in just 56 plate appearances, so there are reasons to be optimistic about a return to form in 2025. Overall, he’s a much better player than this current price tag indicates.
Where to play: Bo Bichette To Hit a Home Run (+870) | FanDuel
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Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Home Run Picks
Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers
Michael Toglia is a masher on an upward trajectory after a modest breakout in 2024. According to FanGraphs, in 116 games and 458 plate appearances last season, Toglia swatted 25 homers with a 32.1 K%, a .218 batting average, a .456 slugging, and a .238 ISO. Toglia’s strikeout rate was high, but he did an outstanding job of managing the strike zone (26.2 O-Swing% versus 28.6% league average in 2024), and his 14.9 SwStr% in 2024 was a sizable improvement upon his 18.1 SwStr% in 2023. Toglia can continue to improve his strikeout rate.
When Toglia put the ball in play, his quality of contact was superb. In fact, he was rather unlucky last year, evidenced by his .244 expected batting average (xBA) and .503 expected slugging (xSLG) outpacing his .218 batting average and .456 slugging.
Toglia was a Statcast darling. According to Baseball Savant, among qualified hitters in 2024, Togia was 15th in barrels per plate appearances percentage (9.6 Brls/PA%), tied for fifth in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (17.3 Brls/BBE%), tied for 31st in fly-balls/line-drives average exit velocity (95.7 MPH), 17th in hard-hit percentage (50.2% of his batted balls traveled 95-plus MPH), and 23rd in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (39.2 LA SwSp%).
Roster Resource projects Toglia to primarily hit fifth against righties this year after tallying only 176 of his 458 plate appearances (38.4%) fifth or earlier in Colorado’s lineup last year. His plate appearances can surge with a full-time role and upgraded lineup spot this season. As a result, FanGraphs Depth Charts (26 homers), ZiPS (25 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (25 homers), ATC (24 homers), OOPSY (25 homers), and FantasyPros’ Zeile consensus projections (24 homers) project Toglia to surpass 23.5 homers this season.
Where to play: Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers | Underdog
Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers
Let’s start with the uncomfortable reason for selecting Cody Bellinger’s under for 24.5 homers. The Cubs traded Bellinger to the Yankees, and the veteran’s home ballpark is dreamy for left-handed homers. According to FantasyPros’ three-year park factor averages, Yankee Stadium has the fifth-highest park factor for left-handed home runs (1.238). Bellinger will undoubtedly hit some cheapies that leave under bettors tilted.
Nevertheless, Bellinger’s home ballpark can help him only so much. He hit 26 dongs in 2023 but fell back to Earth with only 18 in 2024. Bellinger’s 26 taters in 2023 were an outlier since his production cratered following his 2019 MVP campaign. Since 2020, he’s popped 12 round-trippers in 243 plate appearances, 10 in 350, 19 in 550, 26 in 556, and 18 in 569.
In 2,268 plate appearances since 2020, Bellinger has hit 85 homers. Thus, he’s averaged 0.0375 homers per plate appearance and 18.7 per 500 plate appearances. Even if you adjust to 600 plate appearances, Bellinger swatted only 22.5 homers per 600 plate appearances since 2020. Power hasn’t been in Bellinger’s tool belt.
Bellinger’s batted-ball data was lackluster last year, too. The lefty’s 2.60 batting average, .426 slugging, and .161 ISO exceeded his .242 xBA, .391 xSLG, and the manual calculation of his .149 xISO.
Among 252 qualified hitters last season, Bellinger was tied for 160th in barrels per plate appearance percentage (4.7 Brls/PA%), tied for 169 in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (6.3 Barrels/BBE%), tied for 215th in fly-ball/line-drive average exit velocity (90.6 MPH), 214th in hard-hit percentage (32.9%), and tied for 164th in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (32.9 LA SwSp%). Not even Yankee Stadium can cure all that ails Bellinger’s below-average batted-ball data, making 24.5 homers a line he’s unlikely to clear this year, and FanGraphs Depth Charts (23 homers), ZiPS (20 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (22 homers), ATC (21 homers), The BAT (22 homers), The BAT X (19 homers), OOPSY (21 homers), and Zeile Consensus Projections (21 homers) peg him for fewer than 24.5 bombs.
Where to play: Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers | Underdog
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