What’s better than watching a moonshot home run? Watching a slugger blast that ball into orbit and winning cash along the way!
Below you’ll find our best home run props for today, carefully chosen by our experts for value, matchup strength, and payout potential, along with odds-based favorites, and team and game-level HR props.
Similar to our NRFI and strikeout props, these picks are updated daily, so be sure to check back tomorrow for a fresh batch of bets.
Whether you’re after value plays, top sluggers, or strategy tips, everything you need to make smarter home run bets is right here.
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Best Home Run Player Props Today: Friday, September 12
These are the best home run prop bets today, according to our daily research. Each pick offers value and is backed by expert analysis and up-to-date stats to give you an edge. We highlight hitters with the right matchup, form, and power to go long, so you can bet with more confidence.
Editor’s Note: Follow our MLB news hub for more FREE expert picks, props, and analysis throughout the entire 2025 season!
Yordan Alvarez More Than 0.5 Home Runs
For the first time in months, the Astros have some company atop the AL West standings. They’ve slipped into a tie with the Mariners at 79-68, and the Rangers are just two games back.
The Astros and Mariners still have a three-game series left on the schedule, and whoever wins that series will be in the driver’s seat to win the division.
The two teams have split the first 10 games this season at five games apiece, so winning the series ensures winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.
While the Astros have not played their best baseball of late, they at least have Alvarez back in the lineup. He returned to the lineup on August 26 after missing most of the year with an injury, and he’s had a massive impact.
He’s batting .415 with three homers and a 1.142 OPS over 15 games, so he’s been one of the best batters in baseball over that time frame.
Alvarez wasn’t having his usual dominant season before getting injured, but his overall batted-ball numbers are elite. He ranks near the top of the leaderboards in every Statcast metric of note, and he has a .553 xSLG.
Despite his recent hot streak, that’s still more than 100 points higher than his actual mark.
Alvarez gets a matchup vs. Hurston Waldrep on Friday. He’s been outstanding in more than 40 innings for the Braves this season, pitching to a 1.33 ERA and 0.44 HR/9.
However, his advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive. Waldrep pitched to a 4.42 in Triple-A before his promotion this season, so he’s far from unhittable.
Ultimately, Alvarez is still available at a discount. Let’s take advantage while we can.
Where to play: Yordan Alvarez More Than 0.5 Home Runs | 4.29x at Sleeper
Gunnar Henderson Than 0.5 Home Runs
It’s been a year to forget for Henderson and the Orioles. They were one of the best teams in the American League last season, but they will not be making a return to the playoffs in 2025.
In fact, they have the fifth-worst record in the American League. They already fired manager Brandon Hyde after a disastrous start to the season, and there will likely be more changes coming this offseason.
Henderson has also taken a step back. He was one of the best players in the league last season, posting a 154 wRC+ with 37 homers. He finished fourth in the AL MVP voting, despite being just 23 years old.
Unfortunately, Henderson’s numbers are down virtually across the board. He’s having the worst year of his career from a power standpoint, slugging just 16 homers with a .172 ISO.
The good news is that there’s still plenty to like under the hood. Henderson is still swinging the bat hard, ranking in the 92nd percentile for bat speed.
He’s also routinely making hard contact, with his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both in the 86th percentile or better.
Henderson simply hasn’t put enough balls in the air this season. His fly ball rate is the lowest of his career, while his groundball rate has eclipsed 50% for the first time. If he can get that sorted out moving forward, there’s no reason he can’t return to being a 30+ homer player.
Henderson will be on the positive side of his splits on Friday vs. Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt is a solid MLB starter, but he’s nothing to write home about. He owns a 4.13 xERA and 1.23 HR/9 for the year, so I’ll take my chances with Henderson in this spot.
Where to play: Gunnar Henderson More Than 0.5 Home Runs | Betr Picks
Five Players With the Shortest Odds
- Kyle Schwarber (+212; DraftKings): The Phillies are coming off a four-game sweep of the Mets, and Schwarber hit his 50th homer of the year in that series. It’s his first time reaching the 50-homer plateau, and he’s just three behind Cal Raleigh for the MLB lead. He’ll look to build on his total Friday vs. Michael Lorenzen, who has a 4.63 ERA and 1.52 HR/9 this season.
- Aaron Judge (+241; DraftKings): Judge went deep twice on Friday, bringing his tally to 46 homers for the year. If he can get to the 50-homer threshold, it will be his fourth 50-homer season of his career. Only four other players have gotten to 50 homers on four separate occasions, and no one has done it more than four. The Yankees will square off with their biggest rivals over the weekend, and Lucas Giolito will get the ball on Friday. He owns a 3.38 ERA for the year, but his 4.98 xERA suggests he’s been extremely fortunate.
- Cal Raleigh (+250; BetMGM): Raleigh has cooled off significantly over the second half of the year, and he has just three homers over his past 15 games. Still, there’s no denying his power. He gets a matchup vs. Yusei Kikuchi on Friday, who has regressed badly since the All-Star break. He owns a 6.66 ERA over that time frame, and he’s allowed 1.66 homers per nine innings.
- Shohei Ohtani (+250; FanDuel): Ohtani is stuck on 48 homers, and he failed to homer in his three-game series vs. the Rockies. Still, he has some of the best batted-ball data in baseball, so it’s only a matter of time before he goes deep again. He gets a matchup vs. Justin Verlander on Friday, who is clearly not the same pitcher that he was in his prime.
- Nick Kurtz (+255; FanDuel): Kurtz has made it to 30 homers as a rookie, which is extremely impressive. He’s played just 102 games in the majors this season, and he was only drafted back in 2024. He’s quickly established himself as one of the best power hitters in baseball, especially when playing in the Athletics’ small home ballpark. Kurtz will be at home Friday vs. Brady Singer, who is a pretty mediocre arm.
Top Team Target: San Diego Padres
The Padres’ offense didn’t exactly come out firing to start their series vs. the Rockies, scoring just two runs on Thursday.
Still, they have the top implied team total of the day once again on Friday, and they draw another favorable matchup vs. Tanner Gordon. He has a 6.60 ERA for the year, and his numbers are somehow even worse on the road than when pitching at Coors.
Worst Team Target: Miami Marlins
A mediocre offense vs. Tarik Skubal? Yeah, I think we’re all good here.
If you’re not in a state with legal sports betting, don’t sweat it – the top legal DFS apps offer extensive menus of fantasy props, which play very similar to prop bets at online sportsbooks. Check out our overview of the best DFS apps for MLB.
Where to place home run prop bets
You’ve got three solid ways to bet on MLB prop bets: sportsbooks, fantasy pick’em apps, and sweepstakes sites. Sportsbooks offer real-money betting. DFS apps like Underdog let you build pick’em slips. And sweepstakes sites let you play for prizes, even in states without legal sportsbooks. Here are our favorite sites along with the best sportsbook promos you can take advantage of with your MLB betting.
Legal sportsbooks
Disclaimer: Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars all offer daily MLB player props for home runs during the MLB season. You can bet on a player to hit a homer, parlay props together, or choose team-based home run bets.
If you’re in a legal betting state, these books are your best bet for high limits, extensive betting options, and fast payouts.
DFS pick’em apps
Underdog and Sleeper let you pick players to go over or under home run lines. It works just like prop betting, but it’s legal in more states, thanks to fantasy rules.
You pick two or more players. If all your picks hit, your payout multiplies. It’s quick, simple, and legal in places where sportsbooks aren’t.
You can also check out:
Sweepstakes sites
Thrillzz, Novig, and Fliff are legal in most U.S. states. You use virtual currency instead of cash, then play games that look and feel like real prop betting.
They’re free to try, and you can win real cash prizes through sweepstakes systems. These are great if you’re in a state without legal sportsbooks or DFS pick’em access.
MLB Prediction Market Sites
Kalshi is the first fully regulated prediction market in the United States dedicated solely to trading on the outcome of future events.
Interested in trying it out? Click the banner below!
Home run prop bet types, odds & win conditions
You’ve seen our expert picks for the best home run props today, and now know where to place your bets. Next, we’ll show you the different types of HR props available, different ways to bet on home runs, the stats that matter, and how to spot value when building your HQ betting strategy.
We’ll start with a concise overview table, then dig into the fine print.
| Bet Type | Description | Typical Odds | Key Influencing Factors | Win Conditions | Loss Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player to Hit a Home Run | Will a specific player hit at least one home run? | Plus money (+150 to +700+) | Batter stats, pitcher stats, ballpark, weather, matchup history, recent form | Player hits one or more home runs. | Player does not hit a home run. |
| First Player to Hit a Home Run | Which specific player will hit the first home run of the game? | Higher plus money than “Player to Hit a Home Run” | All of the above, plus batting order, early-game pitcher tendencies | Selected player hits the first home run of the game. | Another player hits the first home run, or no home runs are hit. |
| Player to Hit Multiple Home Runs | Will a specific player hit two or more home runs in the game? | Very high plus money (+1000+) | All of the above, plus player’s current power surge, multi-homer history | Player hits two or more home runs. | Player hits zero or one home run. |
| Total Home Runs in a Game (Over/Under) | Will the total home runs by both teams be over or under a set number? | Around -110 for both over and under | Pitching quality of both teams, ballpark home run factor, weather conditions, overall offensive power of both teams | Total home runs are over or under the predicted number. | Total home runs are on the opposite side of the predicted number. |
| Will Any Player on a Team Hit a Home Run? | Will at least one player from a specific team hit a home run? | Varies, can be plus or minus money | Team’s overall power, opposing pitcher’s HR/9, ballpark, weather | At least one player on the team hits a home run. | No players on the team hit a home run. |
| Which Team Will Hit More Home Runs? | Which of the two teams in the game will hit more home runs? | Varies depending on team power and pitching matchups | Overall power of each team, opposing pitchers’ tendencies, ballpark, weather | Selected team hits more home runs than the opponent. | Opponent hits more home runs, or a tie occurs (check sportsbook rules for ties). |
| First Team to Hit a Home Run | Which of the two teams will be the first to hit a home run in the game? | Varies, often favors the team batting first or with early power in the lineup | Strength of the top of each team’s lineup, starting pitchers’ early tendencies, which team bats first | Selected team hits the first home run of the game. | Other team hits the first home run, or no home runs are hit. |
Types of player-based home run props explained
Home run player prop bets let you bet on specific players hitting home runs in a game. These props fall into three main types: betting on a player to hit at least one home run, betting on who hits the first home run of the game, and betting on a player to hit multiple home runs. Each bet type works differently, but they all depend on power, matchups, and opportunity.
Single player to hit a home run
This is the most popular home run prop. You’re betting on a specific player to hit at least one home run during the game. If they clear the fences at any point, including extra innings, then you win. If they don’t, you lose.
Odds are typically listed as “Player to hit a Home Run: Yes,” with no “No” option offered because it would be heavily favored.
A slugger like Kyle Schwarber might be listed at +180 to +250, while a less frequent power hitter like Nico Hoerner could be +700 or more. A winning $100 bet on Schwarber at +250 returns a $250 profit.
First player to hit a home run
This bet is tougher and riskier. You’re picking the first player to hit a home run in the entire game. It doesn’t matter which team they play for. If anyone else homers first, your bet loses, even if your player hits a HR later.
Payouts are higher because it’s harder to hit. Odds for a first home run can be +800 or more. A $50 bet at +800 returns a $400 profit.
Player to hit multiple home runs
This is a longshot bet with a big upside. You’re betting that a player hits two or more home runs in a single game. These props usually appear as “Player to hit 2+ HR” and can carry odds from +1000 to +5000 or higher.
You win if the player hits at least two homers. You lose if they hit zero or one. And a single homer won’t cut it.
Imagine placing a $20 bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +1200 in a matchup against a thin Colorado Rockies rotation in Coors Field. If he hits one in the 2nd inning and another in the 6th, you win $240 profit. But if he only hits one, the bet loses.
Or, say you bet Matt Chapman will hit 2+ HR at +1500, and he crushes one early but fails to get another, then it’s still a loss.
These bets rarely cash because even big-name sluggers only have a handful of multi-homer games each year. So these bets are best used for fun or when the numbers really line up.
Team and game-based home run prop types explained
You can bet on home runs in baseball beyond individual players with prop bets that focus on what happens at the team or game level. You can wager on total homers, compare two teams, or predict which team hits one first.
We’ll start by looking at the over/under of total home runs in a game.
Total home runs in a game (over/under)
This bet is about how many total home runs both teams hit in a single game. The sportsbook sets a line, usually a half number like 2.5, and you pick if the actual total will be over or under.
If you bet the over, you’re saying there will be 3 or more homers. The under wins with 2 or fewer. If the line is a whole number and exactly that many homers happen, it’s usually a push, and your bet is refunded.
Odds typically hover around -110 but can move based on betting trends. Extra innings count unless your book says otherwise.
Will any player on a team hit a home run?
This bet asks a simple question: Will at least one player on a specific team hit a home run? Odds reflect how likely that is.
For a power team facing a weak pitcher, “Yes” might be -200. For a weaker team in a pitcher’s park, “No” might be +160.
This prop is really a team-specific over/under at 0.5 home runs.
Even strong teams can go homerless, especially if their big slugger gets shut down. Meanwhile, a team with modest hitters might sneak one out.
You win if you bet ‘yes’ and anyone on the team hits a homer, or you win if you bet ‘no’ and the team doesn’t homer at all. Extra innings count, and the result is a binary 0 vs. 1 or more.
Which team will hit more home runs?
This prop is a simple head-to-head game in which you bet on which team will hit more home runs in a game.
There are two formats:
- 3-way line: Team A, Team B, or Tie
- 2-way line: Team A or Team B; a tie means a push/refund
Odds vary based on lineup strength and pitching matchups.
Quite simply, you win if your team hits more homers, and you lose if the other team does. A tie either refunds your bet or loses the bet, depending on how the bet was set up.
First team to hit a home run
This prop is a race, betting on which team will hit the first home run in the game? Sometimes, there’s a third option for No HR, but often, it’s just Team A vs. Team B.
If no home runs happen, the bet is either voided or refunded unless you specifically bet on No HR.
This bet can be settled early because if one team hits a homer before the other, that’s it. If both hit in the same inning, the first to do it by time wins.
Parlay and combo home run props explained
Parlay and combo home run props link two or more picks into one bet. You only win if every leg hits.
Say you bet Matt Olson to hit a home run and the Braves to win, then both must happen for you to win. If Olson homers but Atlanta loses, the whole bet loses. The odds from each leg are multiplied, so payouts are higher, but the risk is too.
You can pair player props across different games, like Olson to homer in one and Mookie Betts in another. Or you can tie a home run to a team result in a same-game parlay. Some sportsbooks boost these bets, but they may restrict combinations that are too closely tied. For example, a player homering often helps his team win, but both parts must still hit.
Live or in-game home run props explained
Live props let you place bets during a game, when the play is actually in progress and the game is in live action. Provided odds update based on the action in the game.
You might see markets like “Will there be a home run in the 7th inning?” or “Next player to homer.” You’re reacting to real-time info here, making bets based on who’s batting, who’s pitching, the weather, the score, and how players seem to be performing live in the here and now.
Important terms and conditions for HR props
Every sportsbook has its own rules for home run props, and knowing these is essential to prevent any surprises affecting won or lost bets, or pushes and refunds:
- Player must play: If your player doesn’t start or bat, your bet is refunded. Some books count pinch-hit appearances as official plate appearances, while others require the player to start. If the player is ejected before batting, most books void the bet, but always check your sportsbook’s rules.
- Pitching changes: HR props stay live even if the starting pitcher changes last-minute.
- Game completion and weather: A game must go at least 8.5 or 9 innings to count. If it’s postponed or ends early, due to weather or any other reason, bets are usually void unless the outcome already happened.
- Extra innings count: Unless stated otherwise, home runs in extras count just like early-inning ones.
- Lineup changes: If your player starts and then exits, the bet still stands. For team-based props, a late scratch doesn’t affect your wager.
- Parlay rules: If one leg of a multi-game parlay is void (e.g., a scratched player), that leg is dropped. In same-game parlays, many sportsbooks void the entire bet if one leg is removed due to correlation issues.
- Settlement and stat corrections: Bets usually pay out after the game ends. If a stat is changed later (rare), books might adjust results, but most treat the end-of-game result as final and ignore any post-game changes.
The golden rule is to check your book’s rules before betting. Confirm lineups, understand void policies, and avoid betting before you know who’s playing. If anything unusual happens, like a delay or a lineup change, read the fine print or ask support before assuming your bet is live.
Final thoughts
Betting on home run props can make the game more fun. You start watching at-bats more closely, checking matchups, and paying attention to things like park size, weather, and pitcher tendencies. It gives you a reason to dig into stats, learn more about different players, and stay engaged all game long, even if your team isn’t playing. The research becomes part of the fun, and when your picks win, it’s even better.
