Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 3 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend.
Best College Football Bets: Week 3
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
North Texas vs. UNLV Over 63.5
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 63.5 total points | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
We have an odd situation where I’m almost exclusively backing North Texas, even with this being a total play. Don’t get me wrong, I feel comfortable about UNLV here, but this play is based almost solely on how North Texas is going to handle this game.
First, North Texas is projected to score plenty of points this season. It isn’t entirely because of how good they are offensively but rather how fast they like to play. Overall, the Mean Green have a versatile offense, and they can get the job done through the air or on the ground.
Simply put, UNLV doesn’t have the defense to stop them. The Rebels slowed down Cal in their last game, but I favor North Texas by a wide margin in terms of scoring. This is the same defense that gave up 21 points to Idaho State in their first game of the season.
The important aspect of this game is North Texas’ defense. For various reasons, including their pace, the Mean Green aren’t going to feature a good defense this season. They gave up 48 and 27 to SMU and Texas Southern in their last two games, and their struggles are going to be the key to this play.
UNLV isn’t expected to have a great offense this season. They flashed in an easy matchup against Idaho State, though, scoring 52 points. They have the ability to put points on the board in the right matchup.
North Texas’ pace and lack of defensive talent will give UNLV an edge over them throughout this game. This is an extremely high total, but both of these offenses should find plenty of success with quick scores throughout the game.
Iowa vs. Nevada Under 39.5
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 39.5 total points | -110 at BetMGM
Iowa unders are quickly becoming one of my go-to bets for college football. This is a team that has an elite defense that can slow down any offense in the NCAA. They don’t have an offense that can move the ball, though.
Iowa’s offense relies heavily on a workhorse running back finding success to set up their passing game. The problem in 2022 is that Leshon Williams isn’t good enough to be a workhorse back. He’s struggled through two games, but the Hawkeyes keep riding him.
This has resulted in Iowa scoring only 14 points through two games, and they’ve only scored one touchdown. On the other side of the ball, they’ve given up only 13 points in their two games in 2022.
Iowa gets an elite matchup against Nevada this week. This could be a situation where they finally move the ball, as Nevada recently allowed 55 points to Incarnate Word. The Wolf Pack found success against the run prior to that game, though.
I’m not expecting Nevada to be the team to figure out the Iowa defense. Essentially, Iowa is going to need a very solid offensive performance to hit the over in this game. There’s reason to believe that Nevada could slow down Williams, though, and if that’s the case, we could see Iowa’s offense stall once again.
Kansas +8.5 (at Houston)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Kansas +8.5 | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Houston was thought to be this year’s version of Cincinnati – a potential CFB Playoff darling. The first couple of games have not gone the way they’ve hoped, needing three overtimes to beat UTSA along with a loss to Texas Tech in double overtime.
Houston QB Clayton Tune has been excellent in the first two and is the big reason the Cougars have been, but he feels the absence of RB Alton McCaskill, and the defense has allowed 908 total yards and 68 points in two games.
Projected models had the Jayhawks’ win total at O/U 2.5, and they’re just one away from going over. HC Lance Leipold has resurrected this program, and analysts already have him as a candidate for some recent vacant positions.
Kansas QB Jalon Daniels was incredible towards the end of last season and has carried it over this year, but he and this running game has been the and are averaging 7.6 yards per carry and have scored 111 points in the first two games.
The Jayhawks will fly through this Cougar defense, which has not stopped anyone yet.
Notre Dame vs. California Under 40.5
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Under 40.5 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
All is not well in South Bend as the Fighting Irish has started 0-2, and head coach Marcus Freeman is the first ND coach to lose his first three games.
The offense has already been abysmal in the first two games, and they haven’t moved the ball in the air or ground. QB Tyler Buchner injured his shoulder last week and will miss some time, so Drew Payne will get the start. Payne behind center reduces the playbook significantly as he does not run like Buchner was, and with this run game already struggling, they could have trouble moving the ball.
Cal’s offense has not been any better, as they scored 20 against a UNLV defense that gave up 21 to Idaho State. Jack Plummer is the quarterback for the Golden Bears, and the Irish are already familiar with him when he was with Purdue last season. In that game, Plummer went 25-for-37 for 187 yards and a touchdown. He had a much better offense on that Boilermakers team, and although the Notre Dame offense has not been productive, the defense has still played well.
The 40.5 is a risky total, but I’m not expecting much offense from either side.
Best College Football Bets: Top Sportsbook
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Nebraska +10.5 vs. Oklahoma
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Nebraska +10.5 | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The dead coach bounce is a real thing. Scott Frost is gone after a disastrous start to the year for the Cornhuskers. They’ve won just one of their first three games, including an embarrassing loss to Georgia Southern. The defense has been an abomination, allowing an average of 492 yards per game. Nebraska hasn’t even faced a particularly good offense yet, so that number is terrifying.
Still, the Huskers will get to turn the page and start fresh this Sunday. The fans should be jacked up, and the players can focus on putting forward their best effort against the Sooners.
We’re also getting a good bit of spread value here. This line initially opened as Oklahoma -4.5, but it has soared all the way to Oklahoma -10.5 given Nebraska’s dismal results. I would argue that a line should almost never move that much without a major injury. Nebraska still has some talent – they rank 25th in 247 Sports composite talent index – so I don’t think this team is quite as bad as they’ve played to start the year. I like their chances of keeping this game close.
Syracuse -1 vs. Purdue
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Syracuse -1 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Syracuse was a team I was high on entering the year, and they’ve done nothing to change my mind yet. They secured an upset victory over Louisville in Week 1 – a game they won by 24 points despite being underdogs – and they followed that up with a 48-14 demolition of UConn last week.
Quarterback Garrett Shrader has been a revelation in his second season with the Orange. He’s completed 79.2% of his passes for 528 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He posted a 90.2 Pro Football Focus grade in Week 1 – the best mark of his career – and he followed that up with a 94.5-mark last week. Syracuse was supposed to be a ground-based offense, so the fact that Shrader has been this good is extremely encouraging.
Purdue played Penn State tough in Week 1 before crushing Indiana State last week, but I think the Orange are simply the better team. Syracuse has also received some sharp activity, generating 51% of the handle on just 37% of the spread bets. I expect them to move to 3-0 for the season.
More NCAAF Picks: Week 3
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)
Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)
