Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 11 of the NCAAF season, which will take place on Saturday, November 11.
Our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 10, as some of these picks are also used in that article.
Best College Football Bets: Week 11
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Florida/LSU Over 63 Points (-110)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to Bet: Florida/LSU over 63 points | -110 at BetRivers
LSU is an over-machine this season. They’re the only team in the NCAA that has hit the over in every game this season. They own a 9-0 over/under record, beating the total by an average of 13.5 points per game. Florida also leans toward the over, posting a 5-3-1 over/under record thus far. They’re beating the total by 3.7 points per game.
This is a relatively simple bet, though. LSU features one of the best offenses in the NCAA, but it also features one of the worst defenses. The Tigers rank fourth in the country in points per play (0.620) this season. They also rank 107th in points allowed per play (0.449) in 2023.
Florida isn’t nearly as good as LSU offensively. They’re only averaging 0.379 points per play, which is below average this season. That said, Florida also ranks 93rd in points allowed per play (0.431).
The biggest concern with this game will be pace. Both teams love to slow the pace down, but I’m expecting a ton of big plays. Both defenses struggle, and the offenses should be able to put up plenty of points.
USC/Oregon Over 73.5 Points (-109)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to Bet: USC/Oregon over 73.5 points | -109 at BetRivers
USC is a team similar to LSU for the game total. They enter this game with a 9-1 over/under record, beating the total by an average of 14.1 points. Oregon leans toward the under, posting a 4-5 over/under record through 9 games.
This total will almost exclusively depend on how much USC can score on this Oregon defense. The Ducks rank ninth in points allowed per play (0.249) this season. I don’t necessarily believe that will matter, though, as the Trojans lead the NCAA with 0.676 points per play this season.
USC played Washington last week. The Huskies feature similar metrics as Oregon. That game featured 94 points, destroying the total. Granted, I don’t believe we’re overly likely to see as much of an offensive onslaught as in that game.
USC is an offense that has the potential to score against any defense. They also don’t feature a defense that will slow anyone down, specifically an offense as good as Oregon.
Texas Tech/Kansas Over 62 (-108)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Texas Tech/Kansas Over 62 | -108 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Red Raiders have dropped two of the last three games and will need help in order to get into the Big 12 Championship. Behren Morton has been dealing with a shoulder injury, but he looked great last week, throwing for 282 yards and two touchdowns.
Still, they’re leaning on Tahj Brooks as he has 30+ carries in three of the previous four games, accumulating 1,033 rushing yards, which is sixth in the FBS.
Like Texas Tech, Kansas does not have their original quarterback. Jalon Daniels has been battling an injury all season and has missed time, thankfully,
Jason Bean is one of the better backups, and when he gets his chance, he thrives. He came in a couple of weeks ago to help lead the Jayhawks to an upset win over Oklahoma and, last week, tossed a dime late in the game for an 80-yard touchdown to beat Iowa State.
For either one of these teams, defense is not their priority, as both are outside of the top 60 in points allowed. Be prepared for a shootout.
Florida State -14 vs. Miami FL (-112)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Florida State -14 | -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Florida State is No. 4 in the CFB Playoff Poll as they remain unbeaten. With some of the nation’s top quarterbacks having a couple of bad games, Jordan Travis has moved into the Heisman conversation. If he continues this run and wins the ACC, he’ll definitely be in New York City in December.
He gets what could be a favorable matchup against Miami, who are 53rd in passing yards allowed per game.
Miami started the season playing well, but after that terrible loss to Georgia Tech, it has been all downhill as they’ve dropped three of their last five. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has struggled recently, throwing five interceptions in his last two games.
The Seminoles are the better team, and last week against NC State did not look like a competitive team. FSU is one of the more balanced opponents they’ll face, so don’t be surprised if they run away with this one.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 10-10
- John Supowitz: 9-11
More College Football Bets & Props
Props.com has plenty of NCAAF picks and predictions for Week 6, including the following: