Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 10 of the NCAAF season.
Our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 10, as some of these picks are used in that article as well.
Best College Football Bets: Week 10
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
LSU vs. Alabama Over 60.5 Points (-110)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 60.5 Points | -110 at BetMGM
LSU is the only team in the NCAA to hit the over in every game this season. They own an 8-0 over/under record, beating the total by an average of 14.1 points per game. Alabama also owns a 5-2-1 over/under record on the season.
LSU hits the over so often because they feature one of the best offenses in the NCAA, but they’ve struggled defensively. They’re averaging 43.9 points per game, which ranks second in the country. The Tigers are also giving up 28.9 points per game in 2023.
Alabama features one of the better defenses in the NCAA, but that may not matter. We’ve seen LSU find some success against other solid defenses like Florida State, Ole Miss, or Missouri. They averaged 40.7 points per game in those contests.
Truthfully, this game isn’t about Alabama. I believe any team of that caliber is going to be able to score against LSU. It’s almost exclusively about whether or not LSU can score on this Bama defense, and I’m a firm believer that they can score against any defense in the NCAA.
UNLV vs. New Mexico Over 61 Points (-109)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 61 Points | -109 at BetRivers
New Mexico is one of the best over teams in the NCAA this season. They enter this game with a 7-1 over/under record, beating the total by an average of 11.1 points per game. UNLV hasn’t been as consistent, as they own a 4-4 over/under record. They are beating the total by an average of 4.1 points per game, though.
This game is all about defense, or lack thereof. UNLV’s struggled defensively this season, allowing 0.425 points per play. New Mexico’s been drastically worse, allowing 0.594 points per play in 2023. Ultimately, these teams are combining to allow 64.7 points per game.
This bet is going to come down to New Mexico’s ability to score. Their defense will allow UNLV to score anyway they want, but UNLV has the ability to stop the run. New Mexico is going to have to rely on Dylan Hopkins in this game.
Hopkins isn’t a good or consistent quarterback, but he does come with some upside. He threw for 3 touchdowns only two games ago against Hawaii. If he can limit turnovers, there should be plenty of big play opportunities against this UNLV defense.
Army vs. Air Force Under 31.5 Points (-110)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Under 31.5 Points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
A battle between two armed forces programs means 60 minutes of the triple option. Of the 133 teams in the FBS, Army is 131st (28.42%), and Air Force is 133rd (9.38%) in pass play percentage.
For Air Force, this has been an effective strategy as they come in 8-0 and ranked 25th. The Falcons will be slow and bleed the clock as their 236-minute time of possession is an FBS-best. They know how to run and defend the run by allowing the second-lowest rushing per game.
Army runs it a lot and is 24th in rushing yards but is just 48th in yards per carry. Anticipate for the final score to be in the 20s.
Florida State -21 (at Pitt)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Florida State -21 | -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The first CFP standings came out, and Florida State controls their own destiny as they’re in at the moment. The offense is rolling as they sit fifth in the nation in points scored per game, but they can also play defense, as they’re 20th in points allowed.
Jordan Travis continues to impress, and his Heisman odds get better as the fifth-best option in most sportsbooks; he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven of eight games and over a 60% completion rate in six.
The Seminoles get Pitt, who does have a win against a ranked Louisville, but last week got pummeled by Notre Dame 58-7, who had two defensive touchdowns and a punt returned to the house. This will be the second week in a row the Panthers face a team that’s a top-20 scoring offense and defense.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 8-10
- John Supowitz: 8-10
More College Football Bets & Props
Props.com has plenty of NCAAF picks and predictions for Week 6, including the following:
