The World Baseball Classic begins on March 8. It’s a fun event in advance of the 2023 MLB season. Yet, having skin in the game can be even more fun. Of course, an underdog story is always interesting, but a few teams stand out from the pack as legitimate threats to winning the tournament. Fortunately, betting options exist for teams to qualify from group play or win their pool. Thus, gamblers can take a stab at multiple bets on the World Baseball Classic (WBC). My two favorite bets are a reasonably priced squad qualifying from their group and one of the powerhouses winning the entire WBC. Let’s hop into my World Baseball Classic Predictions below.
2023 World Baseball Classic Predictions
Odds for the World Baseball Classic were complied via DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, March 1.
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Venezuela to Qualify From Group (-200)
Unfortunately, Venezuela is in Pool D with the stacked Dominican Republic’s squad. Two teams will qualify from the four pools for the quarterfinals, leaving a spot for Venezuela to claim, even if the Dominican Republic looks like a shoo-in to advance to the second round.
Venezuela’s roster is talented, too. First, they have a desirable mix of quality starters and relievers with big-league experience. Pablo Lopez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jesus Luzardo, and Luis Garcia are noteworthy starters on their roster. In addition, Ranger Suarez is expected to pitch out of the bullpen. According to FanGraphs, Suarez had a 1.12 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, 26.6 K%, 63.5 GB%, and four saves in 40.1 innings in relief in 2021. In addition, Venezuela’s pitching staff includes nine more pitchers who pitched in relief in the majors last year.
The offense isn’t to be outdone, either. All 15 position players on their roster were in The Show last season. The lineup is headlined by Ronald Acuna Jr., Jose Altuve, Andres Gimenez, Luis Arraez, Eugenio Suarez, Anthony Santander, and Salvador Perez. Only four of their players had a wRC+ under 100, and seven had at least a 114 wRC+. The group also has a nifty power, speed, and contact ability blend. As a result, Venezuela can hang with any team in the World Baseball Classic. Finally, they’re the most intriguing longshot to win the WBC at +1000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. So, while that bet isn’t featured in this piece, gamblers should consider sprinkling something on Venezuela to win the whole shebang.
USA to Win the World Baseball Classic (+275)
Team USA is the defending WBC Champion from the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Still, I’m not chasing their prior championship. I’m also not pandering to the many American readers in an attempt to cosplay as wrestling legend Hacksaw Jim Duggan. Instead, I’m enamored with the USA’s bullpen, high-end hitting, and lineup versatility.
Nine pitchers on the staff had saves in the 2022 season, eight had a sub-3.00 ERA out of the bullpen, and seven had higher than a 10.0 K/9 in relief. Team USA’s supremely talented and deep bullpen is tailor-made for the WBC’s pitcher use limitations. Pitch limits for starters will reduce the impact of workhorse starters, shifting the burden to the relievers.
The offense can pull their weight for the USA, too. A whopping eleven hitters on Team USA had at least a 127 wRC+ in 2022, and only Bobby Witt Jr. (99 wRC+) and No.3 catcher Kyle Higashioka (83 wRC+) had a wRC+ under 106.
They aren’t bogged down by station-to-station sluggers, either. Instead, eight players had at least 10 stolen bases last year, and nine had a sub-20.0 K%. The roster also has valuable versatility, allowing them to utilize pinch-hitters, pinch-runners, and defensive replacements without skipping a beat.
Finally, as Jon Paul Morosi noted, the United States is the only team that can win without leaving their homeland. Morosi voiced a concern about Team USA needing to play seven times in 11 days if they repeat as the WBC Champion. Yet, playing in a tight window could allow them to stay focused and locked in, making it a potential positive. Team USA will have their work cut out for them, but +275 is an inviting line.
