The good news is this week’s Thursday Night Football game is projected to be close. Additionally, it would be harder to be more disgusting than last week’s contest. However, if any two clubs can give last week’s tire fire a run for its money, the Bears and Commanders are near the top of the list. So, how should bettors approach this contest? We’ll take a look at both teams and offer our top Bears vs. Commanders predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Bears vs. Commanders Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +1 (-110) | -105 | O 38 (-110) |
| @ Bears | -1 (-110) | -115 | U 38 (-110) |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of 10 pm ET on Oct. 11.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 13
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
- TV: Amazon
Bears vs. Commanders Trends
- The total opened at 39.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook and has slid to 38 points as of Tuesday night.
- The under is 14-3 in Chicago’s last 17 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
- The under is 4-3 in the Bears’ last five games on grass.
- The under is 21-8 in Chicago’s last 29 home games.
- The under is 4-0 in the Commanders’ last four games following an against-the-spread loss.
- The under is 5-1 in Washington’s last six games following a straight-up loss.
- The under is 20-7 in the Commanders’ last 27 games on grass.
Chicago’s Offense is a Slog
According to Football Outsiders, the Bears are 13th in situation-neutral pace. So, their pace doesn’t tell the whole story of their putrid offense. Instead, their NFL-low 266 plays are more indicative of their lousy offense. Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they’re 22nd in yards per play (5.2), are tied for the eighth-most turnovers (eight), and are tied for 27th in scoring offense (17.2). Yuck.
They’re also a run-first offense in close games. In neutral game scripts this season, they’ve attempted only 63 passes compared to 85 rushes by non-quarterbacks, with 29 attempts by Justin Fields thrown in for good measure.
Chicago’s dreadful offense hasn’t been viewed favorably by Pro Football Focus (PFF) or Football Outsiders. First, PFF ranks the Bears 28th in total offense. Second, Football Outsiders ranks them 29th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). So, it’s hard to imagine them lighting up the scoreboard on Thursday night.
Carson Wentz is on Fire, but it’s a Dumpster Fire
Carson Wentz started the year well before reverting to the dumpster fire fans have grown accustomed to. In the last three weeks, he’s thrown only three touchdowns and three interceptions while guiding Washington’s offense to just 35 points. In addition, out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks since Week 3, Wentz has been 31st in PFF’s passing grade. Coincidentally, Fields has been directly behind him in 32nd.
"Why are the other NFC East teams ahead of you?"
"Quarterback."
Ron Rivera threw Carson Wentz straight under the bus 😭pic.twitter.com/CD1oIZsPaU
— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) October 10, 2022
Their offense will also probably be without talented rookie wideout Jahan Dotson, barring a surprisingly fast recovery from a hamstring injury. Last week, second-year wideout Dyami Brown came out of nowhere to secure two receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns. However, since he had only 171 receiving yards in 19 games prior, it’s unlikely Brown will provide the same jolt of offense to the Commanders this week.
The running game might also struggle behind Washington’s lackluster offensive line. According to PFF, Washington is tied for 16th in run blocking. However, Football Outsiders ranks them last in Adjusted Line Yards.
Finally, Washington’s offense hasn’t been good by many measures. First, PFF ranks them tied for 23rd in total offense. Second, Football Outsiders ranks them 30th in total offense DVOA. Then, Washington’s 26th in scoring offense (18.0 points per game).
Bears vs. Commanders Predictions
Chicago’s and Washington’s offenses are cheeks, as the kids would say. However, their defenses aren’t complete disasters. Instead, Chicago is 18th, and Washington’s 19th in total defense DVOA.
The defenses should be good enough to keep the offenses in check. Although, the offenses are plenty happy to keep themselves in check, too. As I noted above, the Bears have run the fewest plays in the NFL. Conversely, Washington’s tied for the fifth-most plays (345). Yet, the game script has likely had a hand in that since they’re 29th in situation-neutral pace. Since this game is projected to be close, both offenses might be content keeping the clock running and slugging it out with a low number of plays.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t make for exciting television. However, it makes my decision to bet on the under of 38.0 points for the game. That’s my favorite bet in what will probably be a game that makes our eyes bleed. Yet, if it makes our bankrolls fuller, we’ll take it.
Pick: Under 38 total points | -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook
More TNF Picks
Bears vs. Commanders Player Props: Thursday Night Football Prop Bets (Week 6)
