Welcome to our NFL Week 1 predictions for this jam-packed, highly-anticipated opening slate on Sunday, Sept. 11.
It’s worth noting that the NFL Week 1 betting market is very efficient at the moment. That’s especially true when looking at the spread for these games. However, there are some totals to exploit, and that includes a team total that seems off.
We’ll dive into the full analysis with our NFL Week 1 picks below.
NFL Week 1 Predictions
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Niners at Bears Over 41.5 (-110)
It’s tough to handicap this game with Trey Lance starting for the 49ers. Lance will have a new gameplan to compliment his skillset, and the Bears are welcoming a new-look offense under OC Luke Getsy as well. Because of this, last year’s stats are unreliable and shouldn’t be used to create a better prediction.
So the bottom line is this: I could easily see 10+ combined points a quarter. We all know Bears QB Justin Fields feels confident working with his new coordinator. I think this will bring some much-needed mojo to an otherwise subpar Bears offense, but now could be something special.
The Secondary for the 49ers has some depth, but it can’t hide that it’s beaten up. Jimmie Ward and Jason Verrett heading to the IR weakens the group and could end up being a vulnerability to the great 49ers’ defense. I’ll ride the momentum Fields has from the preseason and bank on him exposing some of those weaknesses.
I don’t get excited about much looking at the Bears’ defense. Roquon Smith contract disputes, Tavon Young heading to the IR recently, and really no other notable names other than 32-year-old Robert Quinn and the electric Eddie Jackson.
I think the oddsmakers are underestimating how many shots down the field each team will take and overestimating the quality of each team’s pass defense.
Stake: $50 (two of our $25 free bets) to win $45.45
Pick: Over 41.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Buccaneers at Cowboys Under 50.5 (-110)
This play comes down to both teams needing to brush off some dust, causing slow starts for each offense.
Despite Tom Brady missing some time during the preseason, the Bucs could be fine moving forward. However, I’m worried about the offense in critical scenarios with how beat up the offensive line is heading into the season. Dallas should have no problem pressuring Brady and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. Third and long situations could be difficult for the Bucs.
The Cowboys can’t catch a break at WR with Gallup yet to return from injury, and the newly added James Washington most likely not suiting up Sunday. The production from Amari Cooper will be missed and I expect them to try and make it up on the ground, draining the clock, and forcing the total to be Under 50.5 on Sunday.
Stake: $50 (two of our $25 free bets) to win $45.45
Pick: Under 50.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Panthers Under 21.5 Total Team Points (-115)
The Browns visit the Panthers and there should be a high level of competition, despite it being an out-of-conference game.
The Panthers have a new offensive coordinator in Ben Mcadoo along with a new franchise quarterback (well, maybe) in Baker Mayfield. The Panthers have done quite a bit of work in the off-season to build their offensive line. This may improve their inside run game but there are only so many times you can run up the middle against this Browns’ defense that’s returning 17/23 defensive personnel from 2021. The Browns pride themselves on winning the turnover battle with constant pressure.
In Ben Mcadoo’s offense, I expect to see the Panthers try to catch the Browns off-guard with a no-huddle gameplan. This could have the new-look Panthers rushing decisions against a sound secondary and pass rushers that are outstanding at getting to the quarterback.
I think holding the Panthers to under 20 is part of Cleveland’s overall game plan. Run the ball, stop the run, and control the clock. The Browns don’t necessarily have the firepower to get into a scoring battle, so they will try to work methodical drives and control the game that way. With a solid run game and a veteran QB that has traditionally limited mistakes, I think the Browns control the possession battle in this one to support the Under here.
Another thing: there’s an 80% chance of rain in Charlotte on Sunday.
Stake: $50 (two of our $25 free bets) to win $43.47
Pick: Panthers Under 21.5 | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Parlay: Vikings & Browns Moneyline (+281)
I’m rolling the dice here with the last two free wagers of our small deposit competition. Both of these teams check in as small underdogs, and I believe they should be favored.
The Browns are a veteran team playing competing in a very tough division, and they can use all the wins they can get. If the Panthers get off to a hot start outscoring Cleveland in what could be a sloppy rain game, that would be extremely surprising. Look for the Browns to win with defense and the running game, and the field conditions should favor that approach.
Minnesota hosts Green Bay for a critical divisional game to start off the year. The Packers, of course, lost Davante Adams to free agency — which is a blow that could sting throughout the entire season. Rodgers has expressed doubt in his weapons as of late and I just don’t think there is any room for mistakes in this one. Going up against a Minnesota team that has continued to improve its roster for the last three years is a tough matchup. That’s especially true with highly effective Super Bowl-winning OC Kevin O’Connell taking over the helm as the new head coach.
This is really an opportunity for the Vikings to show the power of their roster. I could see a surprisingly lopsided score in this one if Rodgers can’t move the ball up and down the field with ease like he is used to.
Stake: $50 (two of our $25 free bets) to win $140.90
Pick: Vikings ML & Browns ML | +281 at DraftKings Sportsbook