Week 3 of the season is here, and it is still the best time of the year to take advantage of NFL player prop bets as Vegas tries to catch up with data.
Let’s dive into spots where we are seeing trends or hints that situations may be different than we perceive.
Justin Fields Over 39.5 Rushing Yards & Over 192.5 Passing Yards
Let’s put it this way. If one of these doesn’t cash, the Bears are going to lose by three scores. Also, there are trends that suggest these lines just don’t make much sense to me.
In 134 snaps in the preseason and regular season, Fields ran for 123 yards. 134 snaps translates to basically two games. Last week, Fields was thrown into the game with 0 first-team reps and got zero designed runs and still ran ten times for 31 yards in just over a half of football. Now, Fields gets to be chased out of the pocket by Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. That one should be easy.
Passing will be a bit trickier, but this number is just disgustingly low for someone who was 2nd in air yard per throw last week behind only Russell Wilson. Fields was known for looking downfield in college, and he showed that last week while the stats might not suggest it.
By my count, Fields had accurate incompletions of 20, 12, 25, 10, and 35 yards last game. He is fearless, and in a game where he could be trailing, we should see the over hit, especially when he gets a week to practice throwing deep balls to maybe the fastest group of secondary receivers in the NFL with Darnell Mooney, Marquise Goodwin, and Damiere Byrd.
TJ Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions
Hockenson has seen 20 targets in his first two games this season, and that kind of usage should continue here in a great game script that figures to have the Lions passing a lot yet again late in the fourth quarter.
Jared Goff has shown to be a competent quarterback outside of Sean McVay, something that was a real question heading into the season, and this Lions’ offensive line is really playing well.
The Ravens have allowed massive games to both Darren Waller and Travis Kelce to start the year. Now, these are the two best tight ends in the entire NFL, but Hockenson looks poised to become a top 5 tight end this year, and both Waller and Kelce even had better games than their own standards.
When we think about the Ravens’ defense vs. the Lions’ offense, it would make perfect sense to feature Hockenson vs linebackers over WR Cephus vs. CB Marlon Humphries.
Jaylen Waddle Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Waddle is the most dynamic player in this offense, and while the Tua injury likely hurts him, it’s not as if Jacoby Brissett can’t get the ball to Jaylen Waddle, especially with the kind of targets Waddle has gotten in 2 weeks.
The Raiders are not great against wide receivers with inconsistent and some slow cornerback play, which should allow Waddle to get loose at some point in time. Waddle can hit the over here in just one play, and eight targets like last week would be a complete smash, even if it didn’t happen in a much worse matchup last week.
