The All-Star break is finally here! The grind of the season is at its midway point, and it’s time for some dingers! Our Props team will break down their favorite home run derby props, discuss home run derby odds, and predict the winner of the upcoming competition at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday.
Editor’s Note: Check out our MLB All-Star Game best bets from Justin Bales and a NRFI pick from Josh Shepardson!
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Best Home Run Derby Props
Eight contestants will be competing in the 2025 Home Run Derby on Monday in Atlanta. Cal Raleigh leads Major League Baseball in home runs through the break, and he has some stiff competition, including Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna. Throughout this article, we’ll poll our Props experts to find out their favorite props and predictions.
Check back throughout the weekend, as our experts will keep adding picks to this article leading up to the derby on Monday.
Home Run Derby Odds & Field
Cal Raleigh hit home run No. 38 on Friday, which puts him one dinger short of tying Barry Bonds for the most home runs in a single season before the All-Star Break in MLB history.
Jazz Chisolm was added earlier in the week, while Matt Olson will take the spot of teammate Ronald Acuna Jr.
Check out the latest home run derby props odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Cal Raleigh +280
- Oneil Cruz +300
- James Wood +480
- Matt Olson +700
- Byron Buxton +900
- Junior Caminero +1000
- Brent Rooker +1000
- Jazz Chisholm +1400
Hr Derby Prediction: Finals & Outright Winner
Teoscar Hernandez edged Bobby Witt Jr. last year, 14-13. Neither of them will be competing in this year’s competition. Who ya got in 2025?
Josh Shepardson: Oneil Cruz (+400, Caesars): According to the three-year rolling park factors at Baseball Savant, left-handed batters have a park factor of 105 for homers versus 99 for homers for right-handed batters at Truist Park. While it’s not a massive advantage, and many of the homers in the Home Run Derby will be of the no-doubt variety, I’ll take any edge I can get when selecting the finalists and the winner. Home runs that squeak out and scrape the wall on their exit from the field of play count the same as the no-doubters, so any advantage is a plus. The field has four batters who will or could at left-handed – three are lefties, and Cal Raleigh is a switch-hitter. Oneil Cruz and James Wood edge out Jazz Chisholm as my favorites to reach the finals.
Per Baseball Savant, among qualified batters in 2025, Cruz is first in maximum exit velocity (122.9 miles per hour (MPH)), first in average exit velocity (96.4 MPH), and first in fly-ball/line-drive exit velocity (100.7 MPH). Wood is tied for fourth (117.9 MPH), tied for seventh (93.8 MPH), and fourth (99.4 MPH) in those respective categories among all qualified hitters and trails only Cruz in those categories among Home Run Derby participants. Cruz and Wood don’t need high-velocity heaters to turn around to launch impressive homers. They generate their own power. Ultimately, I’ll take Cruz, the Statcast Whiz, to win this year’s Home Run Derby (Cruz over Wood exact result: +2200 derby odds at FD).
Eduardo Solano: Matt Olson (+750, FanDuel): Olson led MLB with 54 home runs in 2023 and already has 17 home runs and 58 RBIs in 93 games (as of May 11) this season. Olson brings proven Derby experience and a smooth, left-handed swing built for consistent power in any ballpark. With elite pop and All-Star rhythm, he offers strong value on one of baseball’s most reliable sluggers at his home park.
Justin Bales: James Wood (+400, FanDuel): Virtually everyone in the HR Derby has elite advanced metrics (i.e. average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, etc.). It makes it somewhat difficult to give an edge to specific guys. One aspect that stands out to me when looking at the elite options here is the launch angle sweep-spot rates. James Wood ranks in the 46th percentile in the MLB in LA SS% rate this season. It’s drastically lower than the other lefties I’d consider here, mainly Oneil Cruz and Matt Olson.
When dealing with the HR Derby, players are going to be able to square up the ball exactly how they want, far more often than in regular MLB games. The other options are already hitting the right launch angle, giving an edge to Wood. He’s my pick at +400 on FanDuel as the winner. I’m going with the hometown hero for the runner-up, with Wood beating Matt Olson in the finals.
Keith Eyster: Matt Olson (+800, Caesars): Olson is a late substitution for teammate Ronald Acuna as the representative for the hosting Braves. This derby is filled with exit velocity monsters, but I am leaning towards the veteran to pull out the victory for a couple of reasons. Olson not only plays for the hometown Braves, but he was also born in Atlanta, GA. If he gets on a roll, the crowd should be going absolutely nuts for him. Also, Olson is the only member of the field that has previous MLB HR Derby experience, putting up a strong round of 23 home runs back in 2021 but failing to advance.
Truist Park plays slightly better for lefties, and Olson’s familiarity with his home park should be a slight advantage. The oddsmakers favor the MLB HR leader, Cal Raleigh, and the younger exit velocity darlings, so the odds for the hometown guy are quite favorable. In addition to the outright for Olson, lefties with high exit velocity numbers feel like solid value to reach the finals. (Matt Olson Winner +800, Caesars; Matt Olson Beats Oneil Cruz +3500, Caesars; Matt Olson Beats James Wood +4000)
Matt LaMarca: I’m going with a bit of chalk and a dash of upside with my selections. For the chalky part, Oneil Cruz is my pick to win the event. He has as much raw power as anyone in the game, and his massive strikeout rate shouldn’t be an issue in an event where you know what pitch is coming. The ball tends to go a long way when he puts the bat on the ball, and he’s going to do that a ton on Monday.
For the upside, I like Junior Caminero to also make the finals. Caminero is not a household name quite yet for casual baseball fans, but he already has 23 homers in his age-22 season. He has 80-grade raw power potential on the 20-to-80 scale, and this is a massive stage to put himself on the map. Cruz over Caminero is available at a massive +3300 on Caesars, and I’ll take some exposure to Cruz to win at +375.
Justin Carlucci: I like James Wood to win for a few reasons. First of all, his oddds are reasonable, and I don’t want to bet the straight Cal Raleigh chalk. I like the +500 number available on some books and would bet him to +400.
Wood has effortless power to all fields, and I prefer someone with a stroke like that compared to some dead-pull hitters. I don’t think his gas tank will run out – at least for most of the competition. According to Baseball Savant, Wood ranks 96th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, bat speed, and hard-hit rate.
Favorite Longshot Winner
Everyone loves some juicy home run derby props at long odds. Who are you making a case for as an underdog pick?
Josh Shepardson: Jazz Chisholm (+1400, FanDuel): Chisholm was the left-handed batter, not including switch-hitting Cal Raleigh, that I left out of my finals prediction. He has the longest odds to win the Home Run Derby at FanDuel Sportsbook despite having the park factor advantage over his right-handed peers. Chisholm’s Statcast data isn’t as impressive as the other participants in the Home Run Derby, but it’s still rock-solid. So, at his long odds, I’ll lean into the park factors as a reason to take a crack at Chisholm, with the added benefit of hedging opportunities as he advances.
Eduardo Solano: James Wood (+550, FanDuel): Wood has crushed 24 home runs in 94 games (as of July 11) and is already drawing Bonds-level respect with four intentional walks in a single game against the Angels last month. At 6’7″ with elite raw power, his frame and bat speed are built for Derby dominance. As a breakout star in his first full season, he’s a fearless, ascending slugger with huge value.
Justin Bales: Jazz Chisholm (+1400, FanDuel): feels like the obvious option here. He’s barreling the ball well this season, and he ranks similarly to James Wood in LA SS% (46th percentile in the MLB). Once again, I’m prioritizing left-handed batters in this Derby because of the park factor. I don’t love Chisholm as my main betting option here, but at +1400 odds, they’re a bit wide for where he should be.
Keith Eyster: Junior Caminero (+1200, ESPN): Oddsmakers seem wise to the fact Truist Park is slightly more favorable to lefties, as the three consensus favorites will all swing from the left side. I like taking a stab at the big exit velocity generated by righty Junior Caminero as a long shot. Caminero ranks 2nd in MLB in bat speed behind only fellow Derby participant Oneil Cruz.
The Rays youngster lags a bit behind the leaders in average exit velocity (73rd), but his max exit velocity still ranks top 15. Caminero also does the majority of his damage against fastballs – 13 of his 23 home runs have come against four-seamers and sinkers, and his average exit velocity is above 94 mph on those two fastballs.
Matt LaMarca: Junior Caminero (+1100; Caesars): Caminero has prodigious bat speed, ranking in the 100th percentile in that department. Only Oneil Cruz swings the bat faster among qualified hitters, and while Cruz is one of the favorites to win the Derby, Caminero is a sizable long shot.
His swing speed allows him to generate massive pop, evidenced by his 116.5 mph max exit velocity. While some of his other batted-ball metrics lag behind some of the other hitters in the field, that shouldn’t matter in an event where you know what pitch is coming. Caminero has some of the best raw power in the game, so I’m a big fan of this number.
Justin Carlucci: Matt Olson (+950, FanDuel): Yeah, the narrative is nice, and maybe the juices will be flowing a little more for the crowd favorite. Olson has made a ton of positive regression compared to last season in a bunch of statistical categories that matter. Via Savant, his launch angle sweet spot, barrel rate, and average exit velocity are all up after a down 2024 season.
One of the biggest improvements is a hard-hit rate that’s roughly 7% higher compared to his 2024 number. He has a splash of opposite-field home run power, which is a little more than some of the contestants in this field. I think this number definitely provides some value, especially for someone who is trending AND has competed in the derby once before.
Best HR Derby Bet: To Make The Semifinals
Who is your favorite pick to make the semifinals?
Josh Shepardson: James Wood (-134, FanDuel): James Wood’s line isn’t a screaming value, but he’s priced third to make the semifinals, which is a relative bargain. Wood, as I belabored in my finals pick, has the benefit of being a left-handed hitter in Truist Park. And, again, Wood’s Statcast data is elite and trails only Cruz’s among Home Run Derby participants.
Eduardo Solano: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+140, FanDuel): Chisholm has flashed elite power with 17 home runs and a .522 slugging percentage in just 63 games (as of July 11), thriving in his first full season with the Yankees. His rare mix of bat speed and flair makes him a dangerous sleeper pick to break out in a Derby setting.
Justin Bales: I feel best about James Wood (-144, FanDuel) to make the semifinals, but I’m going a different way for value here. Matt Olson (-105, FanDuel) is entirely too low. He’s stepping in for Ronald Acuna Jr., and he’s going to have the home-field advantage. He boasts elite metrics in all aspects of hitting, and I’m expecting him to make a relatively deep run. It was only two years ago that Olson recorded 54 home runs in a season. This is his opportunity to represent Atlanta.
Keith Eyster: Matt Olson to make semifinals (-110, ESPN). I feel Olson should be priced closer to Oneil Cruz and James Wood as one of the top lefties in the field behind favorite Cal Raleigh, yet we can find a decent discount compared to those three sluggers. Perhaps it was Olson’s late addition that left his odds lagging behind the others, but I don’t feel there is a disadvantage there. And even though there is a disadvantage, Olson should get a boost for having familiarity with the park and swinging in front of his hometown crowd.
Matt LaMarca: I’m sticking with Caminero to make the final four (+155; Caesars). I also like the over on his first-round homer total of 15.5, which is a really low figure for this competition. Over the past two Derbys, 13 of 16 participants have gotten to at least 16 homers in the first round.
Justin Carlucci: I’m sticking with Olson. He obviously knows the ballpark well, and I think he offers a pretty high floor compared to the rest of the field, at a very fair price.
Who Will Hit The Longest Home Run?
Temperatures are sure to be HOT in Atlanta at the HR derby. Who will hit the longest bomb?
Josh Shepardson: James Wood (+400, Caesars): While Oneil Cruz is justifiably the favorite to hit the longest homer, his +160 line at Caesars Sportsbook is much too chalky, and Wood’s is a more appealing +400, despite having the second-shortest odds. The gap between Cruz’s Wood’s top exit velocity and fly-ball/line-drive exit velocity isn’t large enough to pass up the value Wood’s +400 line provides gamblers with.
Eduardo Solano: Oneil Cruz (+140, DraftKings): Cruz generates elite exit velocity with a 6-foot-7 frame and lightning-quick bat speed. With raw, untapped power and effortless launch, he’s built to unleash a Derby-best moonshot.
Justin Bales: This is probably a bad route to take for this, as there are a few things working against him, but I’m grabbing Byron Buxton (+400, FanDuel). He’s an extremely powerful player who has the advanced metrics to back up his success. He’s hit the second-longest home run of the season at 479 feet.
The only reason I wouldn’t have him at the top in terms of odds is because I believe this Home Run Derby will play better for left-handed batters, which will limit Buxton’s chances to produce the longest home run. Still, the power is undeniable, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities, as he can advance to the second round anyway.
Keith Eyster: James Wood (+400, ESPN): Oneil Cruz would be my pick here if odds weren’t a factor, but I will take the significantly longer odds for Wood in this spot. Wood ranks 9th in MLB in bat speed and 4th in max exit velocity, leaving no doubt he has top-of-the-league raw power. His average HR distance of 411 feet and 451 feet max HR distance both rank top 20 in the league.
Matt LaMarca: I’m eating the chalk with Cruz here, who may be from a different planet. At one point during his rookie season, he had recorded the hardest-hit ball, hardest throw, and fastest sprint speed in the majors. He is quite simply built differently, and his max exit velocity of 122.9 miles per hour this season is unparalleled. It should result in a few tape-measure shots.
Justin Carlucci: Give me a lunch-money splash on Junior Caminero at +1500. He can hit to all fields, and he ranks in the 100th percentile (via Savant) in bat speed. He might not make it out of the first round, but his swing is violent, efficient, and smooth, which makes this a fun bet.
Favorite Home Run Derby Moment
There are so many memorable moments in home run derby history. What’s your favorite all-time competition or moment?
Josh Shepardson: Josh Hamilton’s 28-homer first-round performance at Yankee Stadium in 2008 was my favorite Home Run Derby moment. Hamilton’s path to the Majors was wild, getting selected in the Rule 5 Draft with limited minor-league experience because of failed drug tests in the minors. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise that a player who seamlessly transitioned to the Majors with such little experience in the minors would put on a show in the Home Run Derby.
Hamilton drilled majestic shot after majestic shot, including one that traveled an estimated 518 feet. He also swatted 13 homers in a row during his first-round outburst. Sure, Hamilton didn’t win the Home Run Derby that season, but his performance was one for the ages.
Eduardo Solano: Aaron Judge in 2017. Judge stormed into Miami in 2017 with 30 home runs before the All-Star Break, instantly capturing attention not just with volume, but with jaw-dropping power few had seen.
Judge didn’t just meet expectations—he crushed them. He launched nearly two miles worth of home runs, including 16 with exit velocities of at least 115 mph and four that traveled over 500 feet, peaking with a 513-foot moonshot. He made history as the first rookie to win the Derby outright.
Justin Bales: As a Mets fan, there’s very little better than Pete Alonso going [essentially] back-to-back. It’s an incredible feat, and it just isn’t something players do. Since 2000, Yoenis Cespedes and Alonso are the only two players to go back-to-back, which is what makes it such an incredible feat. If you take this moment out of contention, Julio Rodriguez hitting 41 in the first round in 2023 was incredible. I also oddly remember being wowed as a 10-year-old with Bobby Abreu hitting 24 in the first round in 2005.
Keith Eyster: As a Cubs fan, Sammy Sosa’s performance at the 2002 Home Run Derby will always stand out even though he did not win the event. It was all about the majestic moonshots he kept delivering at “Wrigley North”, or the ballpark formerly known as Miller Park. Sosa delivered seven longballs that were estimated (pre-Statcast Era) to have traveled over 500 feet, including a 524-foot blast that still holds up as the longest HR ever delivered at the Home Run Derby. Perhaps someone can finally top that mark at this year’s event.
Matt LaMarca: This one is pretty easy for me as a Mets fan. The Mets have not had a great history of producing hitters. We’ve yet to have anyone on the team take home the MVP award, despite making their debut in 1962. So, watching Pete Alonso become one of the Derby GOATs has undoubtedly been a highlight for me. He’s one of just four players in history with multiple Derby wins, and no one has hit more cumulative homers in their Derby appearances. Alonso is taking a break from the Derby this year, but hopefully, he has one more run left in him.
Justin Carlucci: I’m a Yankees fan, so Judge winning the derby is definitely up there. However, going way back, I have vague memories of the epic slugfest with a loaded field that featured Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Bagwell, and Larry Walker, to name a few. Chris Berman was also in his prime on the call, and all baseball fans know who you’re talking about when you hear a “back, back, back, gone” reference! Pure nostalgia as a millennial.
