Final Four Player Props: Signs Point To A Few Overs

Life’s too short to bet Unders, so let’s look at some Overs in NCAA Final Four player props markets.

We’ve already broken down some team-related props for Saturday’s games in New Orleans. Kansas (-4.5) meets Villanova in the first game, then Duke (-4) takes on archrival North Carolina in the nightcap.

Now let’s lock in on four players to cash tickets Saturday.

Odds from FanDuel as of 1 p.m. ET on April 1.

NCAA Final Four Player Props: Villanova Vs Kansas

Time: 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Kansas -4.5/133

Kansas Jayhawks: F Jalen Wilson

The prop: 11.5 points
The odds: Over -108/Under -118

Wilson’s shot was off in the Elite Eight, as he went 1-for-8 from the field, including 0-for-4 on 3-pointers, and ended up with only five points. Fortunately for the Jayhawks, they didn’t need much from Wilson in a 76-50 romp against Miami.

In the previous seven games, Wilson cleared 11.5 points five times, and he should be poised to bounce back against Villanova.

Villanova Wildcats: F Jermaine Samuels

The prop: 7.5 rebounds
The odds: Over -108/Under -120

Recent form is much more important than season-long stats when evaluating NCAA Tournament props. Samuels is averaging only 6.5 rebounds per game over the course of the season, but has grabbed eight or more rebounds in all but one game in the Big East and NCAA tournaments. (And the one time he didn’t get eight, he had seven.)

Those increased numbers have come with increased minutes during the postseason, and that’s certainly not going to change in the Final Four. The injury to guard Justin Moore leaves Villanova with only five players who have seen significant playing time in the NCAA Tournament.

Expect Samuels to battle on the boards all game and surpass 7.5 rebounds.

NCAA Final Four Player Props: North Carolina Vs Duke

Time: 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Duke -4/151

Duke Blue Devils: F Wendell Moore Jr.

The prop: 12.5 points
The odds: Over -128/Under Even

Moore has been a reliable double-figure scorer for the Blue Devils, surpassing 12.5 points in five of Duke’s seven ACC or NCAA tournament games and getting at least 11 in all of them. He certainly shouldn’t have fewer opportunities against an underdog North Carolina team that likes to push the pace.

In what could be a high-scoring game, take Moore to go Over 12.5 points.

North Carolina Tar Heels: F Brady Manek

The prop: 2.5 3-pointers
The odds: Over -110/Under -115

The Tar Heels have come out firing in the NCAA Tournament, and Manek has been a catalyst. The 6-foot-9 senior has made at least three 3-pointers in seven of the past eight games, including all four NCAA Tournament games.

Duke has the No. 1-rated offense, according to analytics guru KenPom, and North Carolina will need every point it can get to keep up. Expect the Tar Heels to fire 3-pointers until the buzzer, and Manek should find the bottom of the net with at least three of them.