NCAA Final Four Props: Expect Low-Scoring Start In Kansas-‘Nova

Kansas Jayhawks guard Remy Martin celebrates after making a basket against the Nevada Wolf Pack
Image Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s the fun with betting NCAA Final Four props: You can cash tickets from the opening tipoff until the final buzzer.

Bettors have plenty of ways to wager on Saturday’s games in New Orleans, where Kansas (-4.5) faces Villanova in the opening contest and Duke (-4) squares off against rival North Carolina in the nightcap.

Looking for some side action on these NCAA Tournament national semifinal games? You came to the right place, as breaks down four team-related NCAA Final Four props.

Odds from FanDuel as of 3:15 p.m. ET on March 31.

NCAA Final Four Team Props: Villanova Vs Kansas

Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Kansas -4.5/133

First-Half Total

Villanova Wildcats guard Collin Gillespie (2) during the college basketball game between the Syracuse Orange and the Villanova Wildcats on December 7, 2021 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.
Image Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The prop: 61.5 points
The odds: Over -112/Under -112

Villanova plays at almost the slowest pace in the country – 345th out of 358 Division I teams, according to analytics guru KenPom. With the Wildcats being underdogs against Kansas, it would make sense for them to impose their pace, especially in the early going — and especially given their manpower issues.

Villanova will have to take the court without junior guard Justin Moore, who tore his right Achilles tendon late in the Wildcats’ Elite Eight win over Houston on Saturday.

Villanova basically has relied on a six-man rotation throughout the NCAA Tournament. With Moore gone, that means the Wildcats have only five players who have logged significant minutes during this Final Four run. That’s all the more reason for Jay Wright’s squad to play slow and conserve energy out of the gate.

Multiple trends also point to a low-scoring opening 20 minutes: The first-half Under is 3-1 for both Kansas and Villanova in the NCAA Tournament. Also, 11 of 12 Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games fell short of the first-half total.

Take Under 61.5 points in the first half.

Winning Margin

Kansas Jayhawks forward Jalen Wilson (left) and guard Christian Braun (right, back turned) celebrate against the Creighton Bluejays during the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament
Image Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The prop: Kansas to win by 1 to 10 points
The odds: +164

Kansas has one big recent historical trend working in its favor: No. 1 seeds have won the past four NCAA Tournaments and seven of the past 10.

And the Jayhawks are the only No. 1 seed at this year’s Final Four.

Over the past 10 tournaments, top seeds are only 3-6-1 ATS in the national semifinals when facing non-No. 1 seeds, but they are 9-1 SU.

Whether Kansas can cover 4.5 against Villanova is no concern with this prop. The Jayhawks merely need to win by 10 or less, and it’s hard to believe this game — with such a low Over/Under total and the Wildcats fielding a veteran squad — will turn into a blowout.

Getting a nice +164 return on investment makes this NCAA Final Four prop all the more enticing.

NCAA Final Four Team Props: North Carolina Vs Duke

Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Duke -4/151

Team Total: Duke

Duke Blue Devils guard Jeremy Roach (right) lays the basketball up with his right hand after driving past Virginia Tech Hokies forward Justyn Mutts (left) during an ACC basketball game
Image Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

The prop: 77.5 points
The odds: Over -112/Under -112

The anti-Villanova, North Carolina plays at a quick pace — 39th-fastest in the country, according to KenPom — but that could play right into the hands of Duke.

KenPom rates the Blue Devils as having the No. 1 offense in the country, so they should welcome an up-tempo pace that leads to more possessions — and more opportunities to score.

That scenario played out in the Elite Eight when Duke sliced through Arkansas, which ranks 28th in pace. The Blue Devils had 72 points with more than six minutes left before pulling up the reins with a big lead. Still, Duke finished with 78 points, which was the exact total they scored in their opening-round blowout of Cal State Fullerton (78-61) and Sweet 16 triumph over Texas Tech (78-73). In between, the Dukies put up 85 in a second-round win over Michigan.

Keep in mind that, per KenPom, Texas Tech led the nation in defense this year, while Arkansas was No. 11. While Michigan State is 42nd, which isn’t far behind North Carolina (39th).

The Blue Devils have put up at least 78 points in nine of their last 10 games, including 81 in a home loss to the Tar Heels in the regular-season finale. And that was after tallying 87 in a 20-point road rout of UNC in February.

Add it all up, and it’s difficult to see the Tar Heels keeping Duke under wraps. Take Duke Over 77.5 points.

Three-Pointers Prop

North Carolina Tar Heels forward Brady Manek (right) shoots the basketball with his right hand over defending UCLA Bruins guard Johnny Juzang during an NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 game
Image Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The prop: “3×2” (two or more 3-pointers made in the first three minutes of the game)
The odds: Yes +184/No -230

Here’s one for the immediate gratification crowd. The popular “3×2” bet at FanDuel is a prop on whether two or more 3-pointers will be made in the first three minutes of game action.

In other words, bettors will be winners or losers before the first TV timeout.

North Carolina has been 3×2-friendly in the NCAA Tournament, coming out firing in its first three games. In the first round against Marquette, the Tar Heels were 1-for-3 on 3s in the first three minutes, and the Golden Eagles drained two of their own to hit the prop.

In the second round against Baylor, North Carolina was 2-for-4 on 3s in the opening three minutes to cash the prop on its own. Then, in the Sweet 16, the Tar Heels again went 2-for-4 on 3s in the first three minutes, and UCLA added one as well.

Only in the Elite Eight, playing against an inferior St. Peter’s team, did North Carolina back off, missing its lone 3 attempt in the first three minutes.

The Tar Heels are underdogs again in the Final Four, this time against rival Duke, and they should be looking to start fast.

Go for the quick cash with Yes at a juicy +184.