Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA betting props from Wednesday’s slate of 11 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 5.
Detroit Pistons: SF Saddiq Bey
The Prop: 3.5 made 3-pointers (at Charlotte)
The Odds: Over +100/Under -130
It’s easy to see why the odds for tonight’s 3.5 total lean strongly toward Under. From Nov. 17 to Dec. 21, spanning 17 games, Bey didn’t post a single outing of four-plus made 3-pointers; and for the season, Bey is shooting just 32.7 percent from beyond the arc — a notable downturn from his career rate of 36.2 percent.
Now for the good news, if you’re pondering an Over bet: In his last five games, Bey has connected on four or more triples three times, including eight in his last outing, a 115-106 Detroit upset of Milwaukee. Bey finished with a career-high 34 points.
In his last five games, Bey is shooting 50 percent from 3-point range (21 of 42). Further, the Hornets rank dead last in three-pointers allowed (14.4 per game) and 26th overall in opponents’ three-point proficiency (36.1 percent).
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Golden State Warriors: PF Draymond Green
The Prop: 8.5 assists (at Dallas)
The Odds: Over +110/Under -145
From our perspective, the odds on this should be a little tighter.
For Over bettors:
— Since Dec. 20, Green has posted four straight games of nine or more assists. The breakdown: 13, 10, 9, and 10 dimes.
— Since Nov. 7, Green has produced 10 games of nine-plus assists.
— Green notched back-to-back outings of 15 assists in his last trip to Dallas (two games over three nights in February 2021).
For Under bettors:
— Green has eight or fewer assists 11 times in 13 road games this season.
— Green is averaging 7.2 assists in his last 11 meetings with the Mavericks, including those 15-assist explosions over consecutive games.
Green logged 36-plus minutes Monday against Miami, after being inactive for Golden State’s previous two games.
Boston Celtics: SG Jaylen Brown
The Prop: 24.5 points (vs. San Antonio)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -115
After dropping a career-best 50 points on the Magic Sunday night, what will Brown do for an encore?
Brown is averaging 31.3 ppg in his last seven games, on 45% shooting. In that same stretch, Brown eclipsed 24.5 points six times, led by the 50-point effort and three more games of 30 or more points. Brown is averaging 24.3 ppg on the season, but 28.8 ppg in his last eight home outings.
Prior to Sunday, Brown had three 40-plus-point nights. The follow-up outings yielded 25, 33, and 9 points.
The Spurs rank 23rd in scoring defense (110.8 ppg).
Toronto Raptors: PF Pascal Siakam
The Prop: 33.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Milwaukee)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -120
With the Raptors riding a three-game winning streak, including Tuesday’s 129-104 home rout of San Antonio, this seems like a good time to guarantee that Siakam will topple tonight’s 33.5 total.
Did we say guarantee? Oh yeah! Here’s why:
— Siakam is averaging 37.5 points/rebounds/assists in his last nine games, including four games of 40 or more.
— Siakam’s last five road outings yielded points/rebounds/assists totals of 33, 33, 26, 29, and 41.
— Siakam had points/rebounds/assists totals of 32, 38, and 42 in his last three games against Milwaukee.
Also noteworthy: The Bucks have allowed 110-plus points in their last five games. Don’t be shocked if tonight’s potential shootout cleanly hurdles DraftKings’ alternate total of 230 points (+130 Over/-160 Under).
Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The Prop: 12.5 rebounds (vs. Utah)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -120
Jokic has been a beast on the glass since Nov. 29, collecting double-digit rebounds 15 times, and averaging 14.3 boards during this 16-game span.
Jokic has gone beyond 12.5 rebounds 10 times since the end of November. In his last five games, he’s got 16 or more rebounds four times. And the reigning MVP is averaging 14.6 boards over his last eight home games
Also, Jokic is averaging 13.0 rebounds in his last six meetings with Utah, despite a six-rebound clunker Oct. 26.
All that noted, the Jazz are allowing the second-fewest rebounds this season (41.8 per game).
