Super Bowl odds went on a wild ride for several teams over the past few weeks of the regular season. There hasn’t been much movement at the top, with one exception: The Green Bay Packers overtook the Kansas City Chiefs as the favorite, entering NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.
The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit third on the odds board, but are actually trending down entering the postseason.
TwinSpires Sportsbook trading analyst Zachary Lucas provides insight into 2021-22 Super Bowl odds, futures, and current action.
2022 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Super Bowl Odds |
| Green Bay Packers | +350 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +425 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +750 |
| Buffalo Bills | +800 |
| Tennessee Titans | +850 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1,000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1,300 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1,800 |
| New England Patriots | +2,000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +2,500 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +2,500 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +5,000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +6,000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +8,000 |
Odds via TwinSpires Sportsbook and updated as of 4 p.m. ET Jan. 14
Moving On Up
The Cincinnati Bengals were a quirky team this season. Cincinnati rightly snagged some attention with a 5-2 SU start, capped by a very unexpected 41-17 road beatdown of Baltimore. The Bengals were 6.5-point underdogs in that contest.
But Cincy followed that upset by blowing a big lead and losing at the lowly New York Jets, then got trucked 41-16 as 2-point home chalk against Cleveland. And it was up-and-down from there.
To the Bengals’ credit, thought, they put together a late-season 3-0 SU surge to win the AFC North while finishing 10-7 SU and ATS.
TwinSpires pegged the Bengals +15,000 (150/1) in the preseason Super Bowl odds market. Their longest odds were +18,000 after Week 2 when they lost at Chicago. Then the steady shortening began: +8,500 on Oct. 3; +3,500 on Oct. 31; +2,600 on Dec. 26; and +1,800 by Jan. 2. Cincinnati remains +1,800 entering Super Wild Card Weekend.
“The Bengals are the fourth-worst result for us,” Lucas said. “We saw their ticket percentage go from 2 percent to 4 percent in the past two weeks. Bettors are expecting the Bengals to end their 31-year playoff-win drought.”
Kansas City (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) might not be the favorite anymore, but Lucas said the Chiefs are trending in a good direction. Keep in mind, this team was 3-4 SU through seven games, dropping from a +500 favorite to +1,300 by the end of October. The Chiefs went 9-1 SU from there — and even threw in a surprising 6-0 ATS streak — to nab the AFC’s No. 2 seed, behind Tennessee.
That run helped K.C. get back to the +350 favorite Dec. 26. However, by failing to get the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs slipped to the +425 second choice, behind NFC No. 1 seed Green Bay (+350).
“Everyone counted [the Chiefs] out after that Titans loss. But they figured it out,” Lucas said, alluding to K.C.’s 27-3 debacle on Oct. 24 in Nashville. “The Chiefs are a really good result for us. Short odds on them most of the season, which usually helps liability-wise, and for whatever reason, they flew under the radar. Kansas City works out well for us.”
Going The Wrong Way
Tampa Bay hasn’t dipped much, but the Super Bowl odds gap has widened between the defending champs and the two teams above them (Green Bay and Kansas City). The Bucs are currently +750, their longest price of the season after being the +600 second choice in the preseason and the +450 chalk just one month ago.
A subsequent stunning 9-0 home loss to New Orleans certainly didn’t help matters. Tampa rebounded by winning its last three — though that included an ugly showing at the dismal Jets — to finish 13-4 SU (9-8 ATS). With some help from the Rams (who blew a 17-0 lead and lost to San Francisco in Week 18), the Bucs snatched a No. 2 seed, just like their counterpart in last year’s Super Bowl.
“The Bucs are our fifth-worst result. After that shutout loss to the Saints, the Bucs’ hype train died down a bit,” Lucas said.
Arizona is also trending in the wrong direction. After a torrid 7-0 SU start (6-1 ATS), the Cardinals were very hit-and-miss the rest of the way, finishing 11-6 SU and as the No. 5 seed in the NFC. TwinSpires had the Cards at +4,500 preseason and got as short as +750 Dec. 12, but has since slid Arizona down the board to +2,500. That’s tied with San Francisco for the co-10th choice among the 14 remaining teams.
“Even when the Cardinals were doing well, they weren’t attracting a lot of handle. And action really dried up during their losing skid,” Lucas said, alluding to a three-game December slide. “The Cardinals are a great result for us.”
Ticket Takers And (Maybe) Money Makers
At this point, the only trouble spots in TwinSpires’ Super Bowl odds market are the favored Packers and the currently struggling Patriots. But the book did overcome its biggest liability after the Cleveland Browns failed to even make the postseason.
“We’ll still be a loser on this market if the Packers or Patriots win,” Lucas said. “The Packers are five times the liability of the Patriots. The Browns were a seven-figure liability and far and away our worst result.”
Green Bay (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS) was +1,300 preseason, right at the time of all the Aaron Rodgers consternation. Rodgers and the Pack are now the +350 chalk to win it all, with the NFC’s road to the Super Bowl assuredly going through Lambeau Field.
New England (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) got on everyone’s radar with a 7-0 SU and ATS surge from Weeks 7-13. But the Patriots finished on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid, costing them the AFC East title and dropping them to No. 6 in the AFC.
After opening +3,500 at TwinSpires, the Patriots got as short as +1,000 in early December. They’ve since slid to +2,000.
“Everyone jumped on the Patriots’ bandwagon,” during their winning streak, Lucas said last month. “They went from eighth in liability to second.”
The most positive side of TwinSpires’ ledger? That would be Tennessee and the L.A. Rams. The Titans (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) are the AFC’s No. 1 seed but could’ve been had for +3,000 preseason and +3,400 in mid-October. Tennessee is now the +850 fifth choice among the 14 remaining teams.
Los Angeles was at +1,400 in the preseason, hit its best point at +650 Nov. 7, then slid back to +1,300 Dec. 12. The Rams are now the +1,000 sixth choice.
