Super Bowl odds are beginning to round into form, with the NFL season ostensibly at the two-thirds mark. The preseason favorite Kansas City Chiefs aren’t the favorite, but they’ve rebounded to No. 2 over the past month. The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the top choice in odds to win the Super Bowl.
But the team making the most noise is the streaking New England Patriots.
TwinSpires Sportsbook trading analyst Zachary Lucas provides insight into 2021-22 Super Bowl odds, futures, and current action.
2022 Super Bowl Odds
|Team||Super Bowl Odds|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+525|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+700|
|Green Bay Packers||+750|
|New England Patriots||+1,000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1,300|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+3,300|
|San Francisco 49ers||+4,000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+10,000|
|New Orleans Saints||+15,000|
|Washington Football Team||+15,000|
|New York Giants||+40,000|
|New York Jets||+500,000|
Odds via TwinSpires Sportsbook and updated as of 5 p.m. ET Dec. 2.
Moving On Up
New England (8-4 SU and ATS) is scorching hot as the calendar turns to December. The Patriots have won and covered six in a row, and the only SU loss in their last eight games was in overtime to visiting Dallas. That’s helped send the Patriots surging up the Super Bowl odds board.
During the preseason, TwinSpires had New England at +3,500. In early November, as the Pats’ current streak reached three games, their odds closed to +1,400. Now, Bill Belichick’s squad is the +1,000 sixth choice.
“The hottest team in football has seen a lot of movement in the last month, and bettors have been riding the Patriots’ train,” Lucas said. “New England went from a good outcome for us to now a small liability.”
Although the Arizona Cardinals have slowed from their torrid early pace, they’re an even larger overall mover than the Patriots. TwinSpires had the Cards +4,500 preseason, and they’re now the +800 fourth choice. Arizona leads the league at 9-2 SU and is a solid 8-3 ATS, as well.
“The Cardinals would be a good result for us. Not many expected them to be doing as well as they are now,” Lucas said. “We saw bets come in when they were 4-0, but not many took advantage of that 45/1 price we had up.”
Going The Wrong Way
Five weeks into the NFL season, the Los Angeles Chargers were rapidly becoming a league darling. Los Angeles had an impressive road win over Kansas City and solid home wins over the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders. Even their lone home loss was respectable, 20-17 to Dallas.
The Bolts were 4-1 SU and ATS, and looking like a postseason contender. Los Angeles was +3,000 in the preseason Super Bowl odds market and shortened to +1,300 after Week 5. Fast-forward to Dec. 2, and the Chargers are 6-5 SU (5-6 ATS), and bettors aren’t that interested anymore.
“That line has ballooned up to 33/1 now,” Lucas said. “We were seeing steady handle on the Chargers in the first month of the season, but after the [Week 10] loss to the Vikings, handle has dried up on them.”
Speaking of dried-up handle: Hello and goodbye to the Seattle Seahawks. TwinSpires had Seattle among the top third of teams preseason, at +2,000 on the Super Bowl odds board. The Seahawks (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) endured a multi-week stretch without Russell Wilson due to a finger injury and haven’t been able to recover.
“We took a $1,000 bet on Seattle before the start of the year at 20/1, and it’s been downhill ever since. Action dried up on them when Wilson went down,” Lucas said.
Ticket Takers And (Maybe) Money Makers
Interestingly, the top two teams in TwinSpires’ Super Bowl odds market are not among those taking the most tickets or money. The defending champion Bucs are a +525 favorite to repeat, while the Chiefs are the +700 second choice. Tampa Bay (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) is seventh in ticket count and fourth in money; Kansas City (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) is fifth in tickets and sixth in money.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Cleveland Browns are No. 1 in both categories. Preseason, Cleveland was among the top handful of perceived Super Bowl contenders at +1,700. But the Browns are now 6-6 SU (5-7 ATS) and have slid to +6,000.
“All of our Super Bowl handle on the Browns was before the season started. We saw a few bets here and there [since then], but nothing of significance,” Lucas said.
The Green Bay Packers are second in tickets and money at TwinSpires. Green Bay (9-3, 10-2 ATS) is the +750 third choice to win the Super Bowl, after opening the season at +1,300. The Patriots are third in tickets and money.
With about two months until Super Bowl Sunday, Lucas said TwinSpires is in a pretty good spot in the market.
“Fortunately for us, we took a lot of Browns money before the season started. So overall, we’ll be a winner on Super Bowl futures — unless the Browns were to miraculously turn their season around,” Lucas said. “We’ve seen interest start to grow on the Chiefs these past few weeks. Not enough action to make us sweat any Super Bowl or AFC futures. The Browns are still far and away our biggest Super Bowl liability.”