2021-22 Super Bowl Odds: Patriots Charge Up The Board

Super Bowl Odds, Nov 28, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) on the line of scrimmage against the Tennessee Titans in the second half at Gillette Stadium.
Image Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Super Bowl odds are beginning to round into form, with the NFL season ostensibly at the two-thirds mark. The preseason favorite Kansas City Chiefs aren’t the favorite, but they’ve rebounded to No. 2 over the past month. The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the top choice in odds to win the Super Bowl.

But the team making the most noise is the streaking New England Patriots.

TwinSpires Sportsbook trading analyst Zachary Lucas provides insight into 2021-22 Super Bowl odds, futures, and current action.

2022 Super Bowl Odds

Team Super Bowl Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +525
Kansas City Chiefs +700
Green Bay Packers +750
Arizona Cardinals +800
Buffalo Bills +800
New England Patriots +1,000
Baltimore Ravens +1,100
Dallas Cowboys +1,300
Los Angeles Rams +1,300
Tennessee Titans +2,500
Cincinnati Bengals +3,300
Los Angeles Chargers +3,300
Indianapolis Colts +4,000
San Francisco 49ers +4,000
Cleveland Browns +6,000
Minnesota Vikings +7,000
Denver Broncos +10,000
Las Vegas Raiders +10,000
Philadelphia Eagles +10,000
New Orleans Saints +15,000
Washington Football Team +15,000
Pittsburgh Steelers +20,000
Miami Dolphins +40,000
New York Giants +40,000
Seattle Seahawks +40,000
Atlanta Falcons +50,000
Carolina Panthers +50,000
Chicago Bears +75,000
New York Jets +500,000
Detroit Lions +750,000
Houston Texans +750,000
Jacksonville Jaguars +750,000

Odds via TwinSpires Sportsbook and updated as of 5 p.m. ET Dec. 2.

Moving On Up

Super Bowl Odds. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray looks downfield to pass during a game in the 2021 regular season.
Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

New England (8-4 SU and ATS) is scorching hot as the calendar turns to December. The Patriots have won and covered six in a row, and the only SU loss in their last eight games was in overtime to visiting Dallas. That’s helped send the Patriots surging up the Super Bowl odds board.

During the preseason, TwinSpires had New England at +3,500. In early November, as the Pats’ current streak reached three games, their odds closed to +1,400. Now, Bill Belichick’s squad is the +1,000 sixth choice.

“The hottest team in football has seen a lot of movement in the last month, and bettors have been riding the Patriots’ train,” Lucas said. “New England went from a good outcome for us to now a small liability.”

Although the Arizona Cardinals have slowed from their torrid early pace, they’re an even larger overall mover than the Patriots. TwinSpires had the Cards +4,500 preseason, and they’re now the +800 fourth choice. Arizona leads the league at 9-2 SU and is a solid 8-3 ATS, as well.

“The Cardinals would be a good result for us. Not many expected them to be doing as well as they are now,” Lucas said. “We saw bets come in when they were 4-0, but not many took advantage of that 45/1 price we had up.”

Going The Wrong Way

Super Bowl Odds. Los Angeles quarterback #10 Justin Herbert looks for a receiver in a 2021 home game.
Image Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Five weeks into the NFL season, the Los Angeles Chargers were rapidly becoming a league darling. Los Angeles had an impressive road win over Kansas City and solid home wins over the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders. Even their lone home loss was respectable, 20-17 to Dallas.

The Bolts were 4-1 SU and ATS, and looking like a postseason contender. Los Angeles was +3,000 in the preseason Super Bowl odds market and shortened to +1,300 after Week 5. Fast-forward to Dec. 2, and the Chargers are 6-5 SU (5-6 ATS), and bettors aren’t that interested anymore.

“That line has ballooned up to 33/1 now,” Lucas said. “We were seeing steady handle on the Chargers in the first month of the season, but after the [Week 10] loss to the Vikings, handle has dried up on them.”

Speaking of dried-up handle: Hello and goodbye to the Seattle Seahawks. TwinSpires had Seattle among the top third of teams preseason, at +2,000 on the Super Bowl odds board. The Seahawks (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) endured a multi-week stretch without Russell Wilson due to a finger injury and haven’t been able to recover.

“We took a $1,000 bet on Seattle before the start of the year at 20/1, and it’s been downhill ever since. Action dried up on them when Wilson went down,” Lucas said.

Ticket Takers And (Maybe) Money Makers

Super Bowl Odds. Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb runs with the ball during a game.
Image Credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Interestingly, the top two teams in TwinSpires’ Super Bowl odds market are not among those taking the most tickets or money. The defending champion Bucs are a +525 favorite to repeat, while the Chiefs are the +700 second choice. Tampa Bay (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) is seventh in ticket count and fourth in money; Kansas City (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) is fifth in tickets and sixth in money.

Perhaps surprisingly, the Cleveland Browns are No. 1 in both categories. Preseason, Cleveland was among the top handful of perceived Super Bowl contenders at +1,700. But the Browns are now 6-6 SU (5-7 ATS) and have slid to +6,000.

“All of our Super Bowl handle on the Browns was before the season started. We saw a few bets here and there [since then], but nothing of significance,” Lucas said.

The Green Bay Packers are second in tickets and money at TwinSpires. Green Bay (9-3, 10-2 ATS) is the +750 third choice to win the Super Bowl, after opening the season at +1,300. The Patriots are third in tickets and money.

With about two months until Super Bowl Sunday, Lucas said TwinSpires is in a pretty good spot in the market.

“Fortunately for us, we took a lot of Browns money before the season started. So overall, we’ll be a winner on Super Bowl futures — unless the Browns were to miraculously turn their season around,” Lucas said. “We’ve seen interest start to grow on the Chiefs these past few weeks. Not enough action to make us sweat any Super Bowl or AFC futures. The Browns are still far and away our biggest Super Bowl liability.”