Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 10 of the NCAAF season.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 10. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week, and we are up more than 10 units on that front so far.
Best College Football Bets: Week 10
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
UNC at Virginia Over 60.5 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 60.5 total points | -107 at PointsBet
This is a game that is set up extremely weirdly. The North Carolina Tar Heels feature one of the best offenses in the NCAA, but they can’t seem to stop anyone defensively. On the other side, the Virginia Cavaliers boast a solid defense, but they haven’t been able to score since Week 1.
North Carolina currently ranks ninth in the country in points per play (0.544) this season. They’re averaging 39.7 points per game, and where they’re playing doesn’t seem to matter. This is an offense that continues to find success with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NCAA.
Virginia boasts a dominant defense. They rank 19th in the nation in points allowed per play (0.296). They’ve been dominant against both the pass and run, but I don’t truly believe that is going to matter.
The Cavaliers recently gave up 38 and 34 points to Duke and Louisville. The Tar Heels will feature the best offense they’ve played against up until this point, and I don’t see this being a situation where the defense has the advantage.
Virginia doesn’t feature a good offense at all. They’re one of the worst in the NCAA, which is surprising given their talent. It doesn’t seem like they’ve been able to learn the offense the way the coaching staff has been hoping, though.
With that being said, North Carolina’s struggled defensively the entire season. They’ve flashed at times, but it’s been significantly more bad than good on that side of the ball. It’s easy to hit big plays off of missed tackles, and I expect the Cavaliers to be able to put up some points in this game.
The final aspect of this game is that both of these teams look to push the pace. We should see plenty of plays in this game, and that means both of these teams should be scoring points.
Maryland at Wisconsin Under 49.5 total points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Under 49.5 total points | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
We have a Big Ten matchup between Maryland and Wisconsin this weekend. Both of these teams have been surprising this season. The Terrapins are overachieving, while the Badgers are underachieving at this point.
Wisconsin looks to slow the pace down in their games. They rank 120th in the country, averaging 28.7 seconds per play this season. Maryland is a significantly faster offense, but they’re roughly average in terms of pace at this point in the season.
Wisconsin is an offense that relies heavily on Baelon Allen and their run game. They’re running the ball 56.8% of the time, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in 2022. This is a key, as Maryland is allowing their opponents to average only 3.4 yards per carry this season.
If the Terrapins can slow down the Badgers, specifically on early downs, they’ll have a massive edge with their defense.
On the other side, Maryland relies heavily on their passing attack. Taulia Tagovailoa is expected to return this week from injury, and he could be cautious to run the ball early in this game.
The Badgers aren’t a dominant defense against the pass. They’re giving up 7.3 yards per attempt in 2022, which is roughly average. With that being said, that number dips to 6.3 at home, which is where this game will be played.
Arguably the most important aspect of this game will be the penalties. Both of these teams have struggled to stay disciplined. They both rank outside of the top 100 in the NCAA in penalties per game. They’re giving up nearly 150 combined yards in penalties this season.
I’m expecting a slow-paced game with Maryland trying to work back from Tagovailoa’s injury early. Both of these teams could put themselves in bad spots offensively with penalties as well.
Tennessee +8 (at Georgia)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Tennessee +8 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
We already know how great Tennessee’s offense is, but facing Georgia in Athens will be the toughest task of the season.
The Georgia secondary is excellent, including Chris Smith, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Week. They have not seen a receiving core like this with Jaylan Hyatt, who has 519 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in three games. Bru McCoy and now Cedric Tillman have also returned.
The Bulldogs also have a great front seven, and even with the team leader in sacks, Nolan Smith, done for the year, they have a lot of talent on that line.
The vulnerability I see in Georgia’s defense is playing against a team that plays tempo offense. The Vols are 125th this year in time of possession per game. Georgia has played three other teams in the bottom 30 (Florida, South Carolina, and Kent State), and they gave up 20+ points to two.
Tennessee is by far better than any of those other two teams on offense, and not allowing Georgia to make defensive switches in between plays will be how they stay in this game.
Last year this game was a blast of high-energy and tons of scoring, but that will likely not be the case this year.
UNC -7.5 (at Virginia)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: UNC -7.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
This offense is rolling with Drake Maye as the quarterback. They’re coming as the sixth-best scoring offense this season and have scored under 35 just once. The offense needs to continue to roll because the defense cannot stop anybody, and they’ve allowed all of their FBS opponents to score above their season average.
It could be good news for Virginia because their offense has plummeted from last year. In 2021, quarterback Brennan Armstrong finished fourth in passing yards and sixth in completions; this year, he’s 53rd and 30th. We believed Robert Anae leaving for Syracuse would make a little difference, but not this vastly.
As bad as the Tar Heel defense has been, facing the 123rd-scoring offense should not have them being pushed back to where the Cavaliers will stay within one touchdown.
Notre Dame +3.5 (vs. Clemson)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Notre Dame +3.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
I successfully backed Notre Dame last week as small underdogs vs. Syracuse, and I’m going right back to the well vs. Clemson. They’ll have the benefit of home-field advantage in this contest, and Notre Dame has gone 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as a home dog. They’re also 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record, and they’re 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a win.
Notre Dame got off to an ugly start this season, but there’s no doubt they’re one of the most talented teams in the country. They rank 10th in 247 Sports’ Composite Talent Index, and while that does put them behind Clemson, this game is not a mismatch.
Clemson has yet to lose a game this season, but they have not been particularly impressive against a pretty easy schedule. They beat Syracuse by just six points at home, and they needed two overtimes to get past Wake Forest. I would argue that Notre Dame is the toughest opponent that they’ve faced this year, and it will arguably be their toughest test of the year. I think the Irish pull off the home upset.
Navy +19 (at Cincinnati)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Navy +19 | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
I love backing the service academies as large underdogs. Navy is just 3-5 on the year, but they are typically a tough team to beat convincingly. They are one of the few schools left that runs the triple-option, which tends to result in fast-paced games. Shorting the game is undoubtedly a good thing for the underdog since it gives the favorite fewer possessions to assert their dominance. Navy has gone 14-6-1 against the spread when getting at least two touchdowns since 2005, and they’re 2-0 in that situation so far this season.
Cincinnati is undoubtedly the better team in this matchup, but they’re far from a juggernaut. They lost against UCF last week, and they have just two wins of greater than 19 points so far this season. One of those was against Kennesaw State, while the other came against Indiana. The Hoosiers have lost five straight games, so they’re clearly not the highest level of competition.
The sharps are all over the Midshipmen in this spot, which has caused the line to dip from 20.5 to 19.0. I still think there’s plenty of value with the current number, so I’m hoping on board.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Matt LaMarca: 8-6
- Justin Bales: 8-6
- John Supowitz: 6-8
More NCAAF Picks: Week 9
College Football Parlay Picks – Best NCAAF Parlays (Weekly Update)
Best College Football Player Props – Top NCAAF Props (Weekly Update)
