Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 6 of the NCAAF season.
Our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 6, as some of these picks are used in that article as well.
Best College Football Bets: Week 6
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
LSU-Missouri Over 64.5 Points
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 64.5 Points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
LSU and Missouri have both been undervalued in terms of the over this season. LSU owns a 5-0 over/under record in 2023. They’re beating the over by an average of 16 points per game.
Missouri is in the same boat as LSU. They enter this game with a 4-1 over/under record thus far. They’re only beating the over by an average of 3.8 points, though.
LSU and Missouri both boast dominant offenses. They rank 18th (0.521) and 36th (0.458) in the NCAA in points per play this season. They’re combining to average 68.3 points per game in 2023.
The current difference between these teams comes with their defensive success. LSU currently ranks 112th in the NCAA in points per play allowed (0.518). Missouri ranks 47th (0.339) in the same category.
Overall, LSU is giving up 36.3 points per game, while Missouri is only allowing 23.5 points per game.
This is a spot where I give the advantage to both offenses. LSU doesn’t have the defense to stop this Missouri offense, but I also believe they have an offense that can score on anyone in the country.
We’ve seen LSU shootout with Arkansas and Ole Miss in their last two games, and I’m expecting the same in Missouri this week.
Florida -18.5 (vs. Vanderbilt)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Florida -18.5 | -105 at FanDuel
My initial read for this game was the over. It’s set surprisingly low for Florida’s ability to score in this matchup. It’s a get-right spot for the Gators, though, and there isn’t a guarantee that Vanderbilt is going to be able to score well in this game.
Both of these teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) in 2023. Florida owns a 1-4 ATS record through 5 games. Vanderbilt’s been slightly worse, posting an 0-6 ATS record this season.
Florida’s issues haven’t generally been on defense this season, specifically at home. They’re allowing only 0.189 points per play at home. Granted, they haven’t faced the best competition, but they did hold Tennessee to only 16 points.
With this high of a spread, it’s going to come down to how much Vanderbilt can score. They don’t have the defense to slow down the Gators, as they’re allowing 39.8 points per game over their last four contests. They’ve given up 36+ points in every game.
This is a spot where Florida can post 40+ points, and I don’t believe Vanderbilt will be able to keep up with scoring for four quarters. This is a spot where Florida can cover even if Vanderbilt posts 21 points, making this number too good to pass up.
Kentucky-Georgia Under 48 Points
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Under 48 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
Georgia got their first scare of the year as South Carolina stayed competitive, and the Bulldogs escaped with a 27-20 win. Carson Beck looks impressive, maintaining a 67% or better completion rate in each game. However, Georgia’s identity is from its defense, which ranks 14th in points allowed per game.
Kentucky faced their biggest test last week, defeating Florida, who had previously beaten Tennessee a couple of weeks earlier. Former NC State QB Devin Leary has struggled, boasting only a 57.7% completion rate and five interceptions. Nonetheless, they didn’t rely on him as running back Ray Davis rushed for an impressive 280 yards and three touchdowns.
Their defense closely trails Georgia, ranking 19th in scoring defense and excelling at applying pressure, as they have the eighth-most sacks in the country. Anticipate an old-school SEC defensive battle.
Arizona-USC Over 72 Points
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Over 72 points | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
USC’s goal every Saturday is to outscore their opponents, and they excel at it, being the top-scoring team in the nation. Caleb Williams continues to perform exceptionally well, putting up a remarkable show last week against Colorado with 403 passing yards and six touchdowns, leading the Trojans to their fifth consecutive game with 40+ points.
While Arizona couldn’t secure a win last week against Washington, they kept the game competitive, even with their backup quarterback, Noah Fifita, stepping in due to Jayden De Laura’s ankle injury. Head coach Jedd Fisch states that De Laura will start if he’s healthy, but confirmation may come only at game time. However, neither quarterback is expected to match Williams and the USC offense, although they should contribute enough to make this game likely to surpass the over.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 4-6
- John Supowitz: 4-6
More College Football Predictions & Props
Props.com has plenty of NCAAF picks and predictions for Week 6, including the following: