The NBA playoffs are in full swing, with another three games on tap Wednesday — which means another three games from which to mine some NBA props, with the action getting under way at 7 p.m. ET.
While the stakes have changed for the teams on the court, the goal from our perspective has not: help you make money. Throughout the playoffs, Props.com will present our top NBA props selections from the day’s action, then do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
With that, let’s dive into our favorite NBA props from Wednesday’s three-game slate.
The prop: 3.5 assists (vs. Brooklyn)
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
Jayson Tatum hit the buzzer-beater for Boston in Game 1. Kyrie Irving’s antics wrote the headlines. Every pundit around the world is calling for a Kevin Durant bounce back in Game 2. But who is talking about Jaylen Brown?
Brown has been overshadowed by the aforementioned talking points, but he has one of the most intriguing NBA props for Game 2 of Nets-Celtics. And it’s related not to his points or rebounding totals, but rather his assists.
Consider:
- Brown has notched more than three assists in six of his last seven games. The lone exception: Game 1 against Brooklyn, when he landed on three helpers.
- Brown played nearly 40 minutes in Game 1 Sunday and the Celtics needed every second to eke out the one-point win. So expect another heavy workload for Game 2.
- Despite falling just short of this prop Sunday, Brown is still averaging five assists against Brooklyn this season. And that includes a goose egg in the first meeting in November.
The Celtics are an excellent passing team, and I’m expecting Brown to do his part in that department on Wednesday. It doesn’t hurt that this is expected to be another high-scoring contest (226 Over/Under).
That means Brown should have plenty of opportunities to feed his teammates the basketball and get Over this modest prop number.
Philadelphia 76ers: G Tyrese Maxey
The prop: 18.5 points (at Toronto)
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
Maxey has started the postseason on fire. He’s coming into his own at the perfect time for the 76ers, piling up 38 and 23 points (respectively) to help lead his team to a pair of blowout victories.
The second-year guard is finding plenty of open shots with the Raptors’ defense focusing on Joel Embiid and James Harden. And he’s taken advantage of those looks, especially from 3-point range, going 8-for-14 in two games. Sure, that number will regress eventually, but I’m not expecting a full crash. Because Toronto’s defensive priorities will remain Embiid and Harden — which will continue to result in wide-open attempts falling on Maxey’s doorstep.
There’s no debating it: Maxey is brimming with confidence at the moment. Going back to the regular season, he’s flown past this 18.5-point prop in five of his last six games. His lone miss came in the form of an 18-point effort (in 31 minutes) in a 133-120 runaway victory against the Pacers on April 9.
Maxey has averaged 40 minutes so far in this series, and as noted with Boston’s Brown, there’s no reason to think that will change in Game 3. After all, Philly wants to wrap up this series as quickly as possible.
So put it all together: more minutes, a red-hot jumper, maximum confidence, and wide-open shots. Yeah, I’m grabbing Maxey Over 18.5 points before the number ascends.
Brooklyn Nets: G Kyrie Irving
The prop: 5.5 assists (at Boston)
The odds: Over -140/Under +105
For some, the most intriguing NBA prop of the night revolves around how many “birds” Irving will release into the Boston crowd. Unfortunately, oddsmakers didn’t hang that number, although we’ll set the line at 0.5 with -240 juice to the Under. There’s no way he does it again, right? Then again, nobody knows what’s going on in Irving’s head. And you better believe Celtics fans are going to bring their best heckle game in Game 2.
How about we look at an NBA prop that actually exists? Taking Irving Over 5.5 assists makes for an appealing wager, even at -140 juice. Here’s why:
- Irving averages 5.8 assists per game this season, and with this being the playoffs, he’ll likely see a boost in minutes (he played 42 in Game 1).
- The Nets’ guard has racked exactly six assists in both games against Boston this year.
- Including Sunday, Irving has flown past this assist prop in six of his last seven games.
Even when Irving is in “score-first” mode, he has been able to rack up six-plus assists along the way. There’s also a decent chance the Celtics will bring a help defending to slow Irving after he posted 39 points against them in Game 1. More double teams (in theory) leads to more passes and open looks for his Brooklyn teammates.
Chicago Bulls: F Patrick Williams
The prop: 4.5 rebounds (at Milwaukee)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Finally, we have an Under!
Williams played 23 minutes in Game 1 at Milwaukee, and that’s probably his baseline in this series. After all, rotations tend to get tighter in the playoffs.
Yes, the Chicago forward saw an abundance of playing time down the stretch of the regular season after returning from an injury that sidelined him for 4.5 months. But because of that, and the fact he played almost half of Game 1, Williams’ rebounding prop number is inflated. And it’s a number he failed to surpass Sunday or in his final two regular-season games — including the finale against Minnesota then he gathered just five boards in 41 minutes.
Translation: Williams hasn’t exactly been crashing the boards with much success lately. And it’s hard to see that changing in Game 3 against a Milwaukee team that has the NBA’s sixth-best rebound rate. This smells like a slam-dunk Under!
Philadelphia 76ers: G James Harden
The prop: 9.5 assists (at Toronto)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105
In putting together these five NBA props for Wednesday, there was a hierarchy in mind. Which is to say this prop brings up the rear because I have less conviction in it than the other four. Still, it’s a pretty good situational spot.
After two double-digit home wins by the 76ers, the scene shifts to Toronto. I believe that’s good news for Harden (and other Philly players) to smash the Over on certain props. Why? Because the games should be more competitive with Toronto getting the benefit of playing before their rowdy crowd. More competitive games often lead to more minutes for impact players. Harden certainly qualifies as such.
Harden has dished out 10-plus assists in six of his last seven games. He seems content in the distributor role for Philadelphia, especially with Maxey taking on more of the scoring load (as mentioned above). In fact, if you look at his recent game log, Harden’s assist totals have nearly matched his field goal attempts since the calendar flipped to April.
A similar story could be written tonight. It’s also comforting to note that Harden has averaged 10.3 assists per contest in five outings against the Raptors this season, dishing out 35 combined in the last three.
