Wednesday Best Bets: One NBA Side, Two NBA Props

Tuesday’s Best Bets went 1-2, which snapped our five-day streak of going 2-for-3. Still, even if you add yesterday’s disappointing results to our 10-5 record over the previous five days, you get a 64.7 percent six-day win rate. We’ll take that.

Looking within that recent run, BetPrep’s Prop of the Day has been a solid performer. After cashing Best Bets winners in five of its last six tries, BetPrep has uncovered another diamond from the NBA playoff prop mines.

Throw in another NBA prop, as well as a pick against the spread in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and we are poised to start a new Best Bets winning streak Wednesday.

All odds updated as of 1:55 p.m. ET on May 25.

Best Bets Track Record

Tuesday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 93-91-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 27-30-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 26-35
NBA Props: 32-19
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-1
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Side: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

The bet: Boston -2.5 (at Miami)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) has a best bet for Game 5 of the Celtics-Heat series. Quick — guess which side he’s backing. (Hint: Look at the name of the podcast.)

That’s right, the Bostonian is siding with his beloved Celtics, who are laying 2.5 points in South Beach on Wednesday.

Before you dismiss this as a homer wager, consider these points:

• Tyler Herro is highly questionable for Miami, which severely impacts the Heat’s depth.
• Big man Robert Williams is likely to play for Boston, and point guard Marcus Smart has a chance to return to the lineup after missing Game 4. Both are key cogs in the Celtics’ machine, with Williams manning the paint and Smart controlling the offense.
• The Celtics are 5-2 on the road in the postseason. That includes a 127-102 victory at Miami in Game 2.

While the series is tied, you could argue that Boston has been the superior team. When the Celtics have their full complement of rotation players, they have rolled over the Heat. In fact, both of Boston’s wins in the series were 20-point blowouts. Both teams are banged-up, but it appears the Celtics are on the mend. And after Monday’s win at home, they also hold the momentum.

Boston recently moved from -1.5 to -2.5 across the board, including at BetMGM. which has the moneyline at -110.

NBA Prop: F Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)

The prop: Over 6.5 rebounds
The odds: +120
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Wednesday

Recommending Tatum to go Over his rebound prop has been a staple of these pieces during the postseason. The prop is typically available at better than even money despite Tatum averaging 8.0 rebounds per regular-season game. He hasn’t been quite as proficient during the playoffs (5.9 rebounds per game), but he has been a bit more active on the glass vs. the Heat.

Tatum has ripped down eight boards in two of four contests, and he’s averaged 6.8 rebounds over 37.5 minutes per game. Tatum has the potential to play more than 40 minutes if Game 5 is competitive, so Over 6.5 boards has plenty of appeal.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: G Kyle Lowry (Miami Heat)

The bet: Over 4.5 assists
The odds: -125
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

Don’t look know, but the BetPrep Prop of the Day is heating up. Luka Doncic went Over 7.5 assists Tuesday, meaning the BetPrep crew has cashed five of its last six Best Bets.

So what’s in store for Wednesday? It’s back to the well with Kyle Lowry, as BetPrep is taking the Heat guard to collect more than 4.5 assists in Game 5 against Boston. Interestingly, the only loss on BetPrep’s ledger among its last six Best Bets was Lowry Over 4.5 assists in Game 4 (he finished with two).

Here’s why the BetPrep folks are undeterred by that result:

• Lowry still has recorded five-plus assists in 23 of 31 home games this season.
• Prior to the Game 4 clunker, Lowry recorded five-plus assists in three straight games against the Celtics.
• Lowry is averaging 7.5 assists per game for the season.

So why did Lowry finish with just two dimes Monday? Because the game was a blowout from the opening tip, and he only played 21 minutes. With the Heat motivated to defend their home court in a crucial Game 5, this should be a competitive contest from start to finish. If it is, Lowry will be on the court long enough to deliver at least five assists.

You can find Lowry Over 4.5 assists (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook.