Vikings vs. Patriots Predictions & Best Bets: Thursday Night Football Picks (Week 12)

Oct 9, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs with the ball against the Detroit Lions during the second half at Gillette Stadium.
Image Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings were thoroughly whooped by the Cowboys last week, and the Patriots won an ugly defensive tussle against the Jets. Both teams have a winning record and plenty of motivation to earn the win on Thanksgiving. How should bettors handle betting on the contest? Check out the following analysis, and we’ll reveal our favorite Vikings vs. Patriots predictions below.

Vikings vs. Patriots Odds

Patriots+2.5 (-105)+120O 42.5 (-110)
@ Vikings-2.5 (-115)-140U 42.5(-110)

Odds complied via Betway Sportsbook. New to Betway? Check out our Betway Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $250 risk-free bet!

Game Info

  • Date: Thursday, Nov. 24
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Location: U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
  • TV: NBC

Vikings vs. Patriots Trends

  • The game’s total opened at 42.5 points on Sunday (11/20), briefly dipped to 41.5, sat at 42.0 for a bit, and has settled in at 42.5.
  • The over is 16-5 in Minnesota’s last 21 games following a straight-up loss.
  • The over is 20-7 in the Vikings’ last 27 games following an against-the-spread loss.
  • The under is 14-3 in New England’s last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last five games on field turf.
  • The under is 8-3 in New England’s last 11 games after allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous game.

Are the Vikings Frauds?

Last week, the Vikings were drilled 40-3 at home against the Cowboys. Yikes. As a result, they’ve been outscored by two points by their opponents this season, despite their sterling 8-2 record. It’s probably unfair to label the Vikings as frauds, but their 8-2 record overstates how good they genuinely are.

According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are 19th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Additionally, per Pro-Football-Reference, Minnesota is 18th in yards per play (5.3) and 13th in scoring offense (22.9 points per game).

Minnesota’s defense isn’t impressive, either. The Vikings are 18th in total defense DVOA, 30th in yards allowed per play (5.9), and 19th in scoring defense (23.1 points per game). Thus, the Vikings don’t have an impressive unit to hang their hat on. Instead, they’re closer to an average team than the juggernaut their record would suggest they are. But, of course, they’re also not the tire fire that was embarrassed by the Cowboys last week.

New England’s Defense is Legit

The Patriots are also probably an average team. However, their defense is the real deal. In fact, the Patriots are first in total defense DVOA. New England’s traditional defensive stats are also stellar.

They’ve sixth in yards allowed per play (4.9) and second in scoring defense (16.9 points per game). The Patriots have also done a good of getting after the opposing quarterback. According to Pro-Football-Reference, New England is second in sacks (36) and pressure rate (29.8%).

Their ability to harass opposing quarterbacks might provide too much for Kirk Cousins to navigate. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cousins is 30th out of 34 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 50 times under pressure this year in completion percentage (42.3%). He’s also only 16th in PFF’s passing grade among that same sample.

Unsurprisingly, the Vikings haven’t shined their brightest this year against teams that pressure the quarterback at a high rate. The Cowboys are first in pressure rate, and they held the Vikings to three points. Minnesota also stumbled against the Commanders (third in pressure rate) and the Eagles (ninth in pressure rate), scoring 17 and seven points.

Vikings vs. Patriots Predictions

This is a suboptimal matchup for a bounce-back game from the Vikings. However, New England’s offense makes it challenging to predict an upset. The Patriots are 26th in total offense DVOA, 20th in yards per play (5.2), and 20th in scoring offense (21.3 points per game).

Dubiously, they’ve scored 7, 17, 26, 14, 22, 26, and 10 points in Mac Jones’s starts this year. Thus, they’ve averaged 17.4 points per game with a median of 17 points. New England’s defense is the best unit in this game by a wide margin, making it enticing to bet on the Patriots as an underdog. However, I have stronger convictions about this contest being a low-scoring affair. As a result, I’m taking the under for 42.5 points. So, if the game goes according to my expectations, there’s nothing wrong with falling into a food coma and waking up to a winning bet.

Pick: Under 42.5 Points | -110 at Betway Sportsbook

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