If you’re jonesing to bet on football games, and can’t wait for the NFL or college seasons to roll back around, you’ve now got an option: USFL odds. Yes, the USFL has returned, even repurposing some of the team monikers from the league’s original mid-1980s incarnation.
You’ve got the New Jersey Generals, who play all their games in Birmingham, Ala. Then there’s the Houston Gamblers, whose games are played in Birmingham, Ala. And of course, the Tampa Bay Bandits. They also play their games in Birmingham, Ala.
And don’t forget about the Birmingham Stallions, who take the field each week of the USFL season in … Birmingham, Ala.!
So, with the exception of the Stallions, at least oddsmakers won’t have to factor in home-field advantage when setting lines. Props.com checked in with several of those bookmakers on the Week 1 returns, as well as expectations for Week 2 — and beyond — in the USFL betting odds market.
Crowded House
Setting odds for Week 1 of the NFL season? Piece of cake for guys like John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook. Setting odds for a brand-new league populated by a bunch of unknown players? Not so much.
“There’s always a challenge when you have a new league, because there are so many unknown variables,” Murray said. “We reviewed the rosters and made power ratings based mostly on the QBs, and to an extent the coaches. But you have to be very aggressive and open-minded when it comes to adjusting those ratings. It’s very fluid.”
But a bigger issue, more so for the league gaining traction than for the oddsmakers, is the decision to launch in the spring.
“We are open to having anything on the board that people are interested in betting on,” Murray said. “[But] I don’t really think this is a good time of year for them to do this. There’s so much else going on. But that’s for smarter people than me to decide.”
To Murray’s point: Saturday’s opener between the Generals and Stallions was up against a monster sports betting schedule across the board.
“There’s too much else going on. They kicked off on a Saturday in which we had a full slate of MLB, the NBA playoffs starting, the Golden Knights,” Murray said, noting the NHL franchise that always gets bettors’ attention in Vegas. “There was a UFC card, a big Errol Spence Pay-Per-View fight, a golf tournament going, auto racing. It’s a crowded market right now.”
Week 1 USFL Odds And Action
That said, The SuperBook and other sportsbook operations noted USFL betting odds were at least a little intriguing in Week 1.
“This was a great first week for USFL betting,” PointsBet USA sports analyst Mike Korn said. “It’s a good base to build on for the rest of the season. Bettors are interested.”
Specifically, Korn said Monday’s Tampa Bay Bandits-Pittsburgh Maulers clash had the most handle, with Tampa Bay winning 17-3. That game also had an unexpected extra day to percolate on the USFL odds board, as it was scheduled for Sunday but postponed until Monday due to foul weather.
That contest and the three other Week 1 games in the eight-team league saw PointsBet come out ahead of its customers. “Handle was just around what we expected it to be. We did well from a trading perspective,” Korn said.
Likewise, although the action was light, The SuperBook was satisfied with Week 1. Saturday’s season opener, a 28-24 Stallions win over the Generals, was the most-bet game, though all four got similar action.
“We wrote a few bucks and held 4 percent. No complaints out of me,” Murray said. “The interest in Week 1 was pretty mild. Mostly just arbitrage bettors picking off differences we had to other shops.”
Week 2 kicks off Friday with the Michigan Panthers facing the Generals, and Murray noted midweek that betting interest is increasing.
“We are already seeing some actual sharp bets coming on Week 2 games, which is good to see,” he said. “People are forming opinions.”
BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said the four Week 1 games got some traction with bettors at this shop. But echoing Murray, Davis noted it was a very competitive marketplace for the USFL’s debut weekend.
“BetMGM saw solid interest from bettors on the USFL. That said, most bettors were focused on the start of the NBA playoffs,” Davis said. “But bettors love football, and we anticipate continued interest in the league.”
Forward Pass? Or Play?
As Murray mentioned, professional bettors are starting to take note of USFL odds in Week 2. The sharp players will always be cognizant of opportunity. Still, handle for these contests isn’t going to knock anyone’s socks off.
Both Korn and Murray said Week 1 individual game handle was comparable to a WNBA game.
“Hopefully, that changes as people start to form opinions,” Murray said. “The league doesn’t have any well-known players to market, which is going to make for an uphill battle as they try to grab people’s attention.”
Added Korn: “The USFL still has a lot of room to grow. We have a lot to build on and would expect handle to grow week by week throughout the season.”
Murray says he’s honestly hopeful the league thrives and that the USFL betting market grows, as well. But he’s got a healthy skepticism entering Week 2 of the 10-week regular season.
“We are definitely seeing more money come in on the Week 2 games than we did last week. Hopefully, we see that trend continue as we move forward with the season,” Murray said. “I’m just always skeptical of these spring [football] leagues. There aren’t enough good QBs to fill the NFL, let alone multiple other professional football leagues. It’s a tough position to play.”
