Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course! Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em NFL props challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for Saturday’s Wild Card contests.
Derek Carr UNDER 257.5 Passing Yards
Derek Carr’s passing yardage total seems oddly high. First, the Cincinnati Bengals held him to only 215 passing yards in Week 11. But, of course, that’s only a one-game sample.
However, since the Las Vegas Raiders’ Week 8 bye, Carr has passed for more than 257.5 yards in only four of 10 games. Moreover, two of those games were immediately following the bye, meaning he’s exceeded 257.5 passing yards just two times in his last eight games, failing to do so in each of the previous four games — the last especially damning, passing for only 186 yards, despite playing an entire overtime period.
The Bengals are a tricky matchup, too. Since their Week 10 bye, they’ve stiffened up in pass defense, holding six of eight opponents under 257.5 passing yards. As a result, Bet Prep projects Carr for only 237.38 passing yards.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Hunter Renfrow UNDER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s correlate a pick with our Carr under, taking Hunter Renfrow’s under for 54.5 receiving yards. Taking nothing away from Renfrow’s excellent 2021 campaign, he hit the skids at the end of the year. The slot maven was held to 40 receiving yards or fewer in three of his last four games, including posting a season-low 13 receiving yards in the regular-season finale — perhaps not coincidentally with the return of Darren Waller.
Since the team’s Week 8 bye, Renfrow has failed to clear 54.5 receiving yards in six of 10 games. Yes, he had a heater from Week 12 through Week 14, reaching triple-digit receiving yards in each. However, defenses got smarter, taking him away since then.
In addition, I alluded to the return of Waller last week, which isn’t a minor change to the passing-game hierarchy. In six games without Waller, Renfrow averaged 70.83 receiving yards per game. However, in 11 games with Waller, Renfrow’s production plummets to 55.73 receiving yards per game. Finally, if you remove the Week 12 game Waller exited early from Renfrow’s games-played-with Waller split, his receiving yardage craters to 47.9 per game.
Unsurprisingly, Bet Prep supports taking the under. They project Renfrow for 52.01 receiving yards against the Bengals. Thus, let’s hook Carr’s and Renfrow’s under and root or their continued struggles.
Kendrick Bourne UNDER 36.5 Receiving Yards
Kendrick Bourne has another under I’m enamored with. According to Pro Football Focus, in the 15 games Nelson Agholor also suited up this year, Bourne was just fourth in routes (347) and targets (57) for the New England Patriots. Therefore, he’s merely a cog in the Patriots’ machine.
Additionally, it hasn’t been a well-oiled machine on the road. According to Pro-Football-Reference, rookie Mac Jones averaged a paltry 194.9 passing yards per game on the road. But, of course, his three-pass aberration in the extremely windy conditions in Buffalo in Week 13 is on his road ledger. Still, if you remove that effort, he averaged only 220 passing yards in his seven other road games.
The matchup is brutal for Jones and Bourne this week, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Buffalo Bills are first in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills allowed the fewest passing yards per game (163.0) and fewest receiving yards to wideouts (1,925, the only team that allowed fewer than 2,100 receiving yards to the position).
Finally, Jones was held to only 145 yards on 32 pass attempts in the second meeting with the Bills, while Bourne was held to just 33 receiving yards. Factor in everything and Bet Prep project Bourne for only 35.16 receiving yards.
