Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!
Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 10.
Tom Brady OVER 307.5 Passing Yards
Tom Brady is piling up passing yardage at the highest per-game rate in his career, passing for an NFL-high 331.3 yards per game. So, he’s not falling off a cliff, suffice to say. But, interestingly, he’s surpassed 307.5 passing yards in exactly half of his games. Thus, it looks like this is a coin flip at first blush.
However, I expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pass-happy offense to lean more into their tendencies against the Washington Football Team. According to Sharp Football Stats, Tampa Bay is passing at the second-highest rate (67%) when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. And, the Football Team is much easier to attack through the air than on the ground. According to Football Outsiders, Washington is a respectable 10th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. However, they’re dreadful against the pass, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA.
It behooves Brady, head coach Bruce Arians, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich to pick Washington apart through the air instead of running into the teeth of a top-10 run defense. So, I expect them to do just that to great success.
Adrian Peterson UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards
Adrian Peterson made his season debut for the Tennessee Titans last week. He joined a full-blown running-back-by-committee situation. The ageless Peterson led the team in carries with 10. However, his 21 rushing yards were the fewest among the three running backs who toted the rock last week.
According to Pro Football Focus, he forced only one missed tackle on his 10 runs. He also played just 33% of the offensive snaps, despite a desirable game script. Expanding on the game script, the Titans ran only 10 plays with the offensive scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. Still, they passed on six of those plays, perhaps shedding light on their intentions in close games.
In addition, Peterson’s lackluster yardage was totaled against a mid-pack run defense. This week, he squares off with the New Orleans Saints and their top defense in rush defense DVOA. Teams actively avoid running against their stout run defense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, teams have run at only a 36.9% rate against them.
Add it all up, and I love the under. Finally, Bet Prep agrees, projecting Peterson for only 37.65 rushing yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 84.5 Rush + Rec Yards
Cordarrelle Patterson’s surprising breakout is one of my favorite occurrences this year. He’s earned a more substantial role in the offense as the season marches along. And, in his last six games, he’s surpassed 84.5 yards from scrimmage four times.
According to Pro Football Focus, the do-it-all offensive weapon is third on the Atlanta Falcons in routes (63) the previous three weeks. He’s parlayed his integral role in the passing attack into 164 receiving yards. In that same stretch, he’s rushed the ball 32 times for 105 yards.
Patterson’s versatility should play well in a likely fast-paced shootout. According to Football Outsiders, the Dallas Cowboys play at the third-fastest situation neutral pace. Meanwhile, the Falcons play at the ninth-fastest situation neutral pace.
Therefore, there’s an excellent chance for a bunch of plays to be run by both offenses. Bet Prep likes the over, projecting Patterson for 87.61 total yards.
Jalen Hurts UNDER 251.5 Total Yards
Let’s stick with the theme of pace for this pick. The Philadelphia Eagles are playing at the second-fastest situation neutral pace. Yet, they might be dragged into a painfully slow game by the Denver Broncos, who rank 31st in situation-neutral pace.
Jalen Hurts’ recent trend bodes well for his under, too. He’s fallen short of that mark in five of his last six games. Further, he’s attempted fewer than 30 passes in three of his previous four games as the Eagles have shifted to a run-heavy approach. When the offensive scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points in Week 6 through Week 9, the Eagles passed at by far the lowest rate (39%, seven percent lower than the second-lowest rate).
Sure, Hurts can gain yards with his elite rushing ability. However, the lack of passing volume lately puts a ton of pressure on his legs for the total yards over. As a result, it’s not surprising to see Bet Prep project him for only 241.43 total yards. Thus, they’re in alignment with my decision to tout Hurts’ total yards under.
Jared Cook UNDER 33.5 Receiving Yards
Jared Cook is an adequate ancillary pass-catching option for the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s averaging 38.5 receiving yards per game. However, he’s fallen short of 33.5 receiving yards in five of eight games. Yes, he surpassed his yardage prop last week, but it snapped a three-game streak under 30 receiving yards.
Most importantly, my eyebrows raised looking under the hood since the team’s Week 7 bye. Cook played only 55% of the team’s snaps in Week 8, his third-lowest rate for the year. In Week 9, he set a new season-low, playing just 42% of the snaps. Additionally, he’s run fewer than 30 routes in three straight games, setting a new low with only 22 routes last week.
With Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson pushing Cook for playing time, Cook will need to be efficient to eclipse 33.5 receiving yards. The matchup against the Vikings is middle of the road or worse for tight ends, as Minnesota’s allowed the 10th-fewest receiving yards to the position. So I’ll take advantage of a potentially murkier tight end situation than meets the eye looking at full-season data by taking Cook’s under or 33.5 receiving yards.
