Week 14 officially begins with the Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 250.5 Passing Yards
Ben Roethlisberger has primarily been a game-manager at best this year. Sure, he’s coming off of one of his best games of the year. Nevertheless, he passed for only 236 yards. Furthermore, the 39-year-old quarterback is working on a short week. So color me skeptical of old-man Big Ben and his Tommy John-repaired elbow playing at peak form on the quick turnaround.
Additionally, the matchup is considerably better for the rushing attack. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are 13th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 29th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, there is an incentive to lean on rookie Najee Harris more often in a game that projects to be in a neutral game script.
Expanding upon that, according to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points since Week 5, Pittsburgh passes at a 56% clip, one percent below the league average. Moreover, according to Football Outsiders, the Steelers might be slowed down a bit, ranking 12th in situation neutral pace versus only 18th for the Vikings.
The outlined context led me to Big Ben’s under. Finally, Bet Prep also supports the under, projecting Roethlisberger for 247.90 passing yards.
Chase Claypool MINUS 18.5 Receiving Yards Vs. Pat Freiermuth
Diontae Johnson is the unquestioned top option in Pittsburgh’s passing attack. However, Chase Claypool is also decidedly ahead of Pat Freiermuth in the pecking order, owning the second-fiddle role. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 11, Claypool has been second on the team in routes (107), targets (20), and receiving yards (227), and fourth in receptions (10). Meanwhile, Freiermuth has been third in routes (78), receptions (11), and receiving yards (77), and fourth in targets (14).
Claypool has had an average depth of target of 16.7 yards downfield in the previous three games. Thankfully, his usage meshes with Minnesota’s recent struggles against explosive passes. According to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 5, the Vikings allow the seventh-highest average explosive pass rate (10%).
Finally, the matchup sews up the case for laying the 18.5 receiving yards with Claypool to Freiermuth. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Minnesota allows the third-most receiving yards (2,279) to wide receivers. Conversely, they allow the 11th-fewest receiving yards (551) to tight ends. As a result, Bet Prep projects Claypool for 60.9 receiving yards and Freiermuth for 38.05 receiving yards.
Justin Jefferson OVER 93.5 Receiving Yards
Claypool isn’t the only receiver that’s treated to a good matchup in this week’s Thursday Night Football game. Justin Jefferson squares off with a Pittsburgh pass defense ranked 25th in DVOA. Additionally, the Steelers allow the 13th-most receiving yards (1,972) to wideouts.
Regardless, the second-year receiver is a threat to erupt against any opposition. According to Sports Info Solutions, Jefferson is tied for ninth in target share (26.3%) and first in Intended Air Yards (1,465). In addition, he’s turning his drool-inducing usage into box-score production, ranking second in receiving yards per game (100.8). Also, Jefferson is locked in, producing receiving yardage totals of 143, 169, 83, and 182 in the previous four weeks.
Finally, running mate Adam Thielen is ruled out. So, Jefferson is a great bet to be peppered with all the targets he can handle. Thus, Bet Prep projects Jefferson to total 97.44 receiving yards.
