Week 13 officially begins with the Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
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- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
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Dak Prescott OVER 280.5 Passing Yards
I expect this to be a Dak Prescott blow-up spot this week. First, according to Sharp Football Stats, when the scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Cowboys pass at the 10th-highest rate (59% compared to a league average of 57%). Second, the matchup is more favorable for Dallas’ passing attack than the ground game.
According to Football Outsiders, the Saints are first in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 13th in pass defense DVOA. Third, Prescott should have his top three wideouts available, as Amari Cooper traveled with the team to New Orleans.
Finally, Prescott has eclipsed 280.5 passing yards in precisely half of his starts this year. Thus, it’s a coin flip most weeks. However, with the passing attack facing a less daunting task this week, the odds seem slightly in Prescott’s favor for going over his yardage total. As a result, Bet Prep agrees, projecting Prescott for 282.39 passing yards.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards
Prescott isn’t the only player who should benefit from Cooper’s probable return. With Cooper and Michael Gallup healthy, CeeDee Lamb projects to run from the slot. According to Pro Football Focus, when all three of the Cowboys’ top receivers were healthy in Week 1 and Week 10, Lamb played 40.7% of his passing snaps from the slot and 61.5% of them from the slot.
Lamb’s alignment is a boon for his outlook this week, as he’ll probably largely avoid Marshon Lattimore. According to Pro Football Focus, Lattimore has played only 33 snaps defending the slot. So instead, he should frequently see P.J. Williams in coverage. The slot cornerback has allowed 17 receptions on 21 targets this year. In 2020, he was torched for 399 receiving yards, despite facing only 32 targets.
The second-year receiver is averaging 74.0 receiving yards per game. He’s exceeded 62.5 receiving yards in seven of 10 games — including one he exited early with a concussion. Unsurprisingly, Bet Prep supports taking the over, too, projecting Lamb for 67.74 receiving yards.
Nick Vannett UNDER 8.5 Receiving Yards
Nick Vannett has played in two games this year. He’s caught precisely one pass in each game. As a result, he’s gone over his yardage prop of 8.5 yards in each game. However, he’s been targeted only one time in each contest.
Further, his playing time and routes are less than desirable for impacting the passing game. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he played 28% of the Saints’ offensive snaps in Week 11 and 37% of the offensive snaps in Week 12. Moreover, his routes slipped from 15 to five, despite Adam Trautman’s injury freeing up playing time.
Instead, Juwan Johnson went from a healthy inactive in Week 11 to running 18 routes in Week 12. Thus, Johnson’s the pass-catching tight end, and Vannett’s the blocking tight end. With only two targets in two games, lackluster playing time, and a slip in routes, despite a more favorable situation, I expect Vannett to post a bagel for receiving yards this week.
