Week 10 officially begins with the Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Durham Smythe OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards
Durham Smythe going over 9.5 receiving yards in this week’s Thursday Night Football game is easily my favorite Underdog Fantasy pick. According to 4For4.com’s Market Share app, in four games this year without DeVante Parker, Smythe has per-game averages of 3.8 targets, 3.0 receptions, 36.5 receiving yards, and 40.0 air yards.
Additionally, according to Pro Football Focus, in four games Parker has missed this year, Smythe is fourth on the team with 98 routes. Smythe clearly benefits from Parker’s absence. To hammer his increased involvement point home, Smythe has reached at least 23 receiving yards in all four games Parker has missed in 2021.
As a bonus, the matchup is great. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Ravens have ceded the third-most receiving yards (595) to tight ends. Finally, BetPrep projects Smythe to record 9.65 receiving yards this week, putting him over his yardage prop.
Marquise Brown OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
Marquise Brown is breaking out in full this year. According to Sports Info Solutions, he ranks 13th in target share (25.4%) and sixth in Intended Air Yards (947). He pairs his robust role in Baltimore’s passing attack with top-shelf efficiency. Hollywood is 23rd out of 147 qualified pass-catchers in yards per target (9.9 Y/Tgt). Further, out of 73 receivers targeted at least 25 times this year, he ranks 11th in yards per route run (2.30 Y/RR) per Pro Football Focus.
Brown’s combination of efficiency and elite usage has resulted in 5.8 receptions and 85.3 receiving yards per game. Thankfully, he’s been relatively consistent and not merely a boom-or-bust receiver as well. Brown has bested 67.5 receiving yards in six of eight games this year.
The matchup sets him up to exceed 67.5 receiving yards again this week. Football Outsiders ranks the Dolphins 22nd in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Also, they’re especially dreadful against receivers. Miami’s coughed up the second-most receiving yards (1,735) to wideouts this season. As a result, BetPrep supports hopping on Brown’s over, projecting him for 80.19 receiving yards this week.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 5.5 Receptions
Jaylen Waddle doesn’t benefit to the same degree Smythe does from Parker’s absence. Nevertheless, his production ticks up without his running mate in the lineup. The dynamic rookie has per-game averages of 9.3 targets, 6.8 receptions, 66.8 receiving yards, and 73.8 air yards when Parker is out.
Waddle also benefits from Miami’s pass-happy tendencies. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, Miami passes at the third-highest rate (65%). And since Miami is a 7.5-point underdog, it merits mentioning they pass at a 71% clip when trailing by eight points or more.
The matchup should embolden gamers to select Waddle’s over for 5.5 receptions, too. The Ravens rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Finally, BetPrep has Waddle going over 5.5 receptions with a projection of 6.02 receptions.
