Week 5 officially begins with the Seattle Seahawks visiting the Los Angeles Rams for an NFC West matchup, and we have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Thursday Night Football of Week 5.
Tyler Lockett OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards
Seattle’s passing attack includes two alphas. According to Sports Info Solutions, D.K. Metcalf is commanding a larger share of the pie, ranking tied for fourth with a 32.4% target share. However, Tyler Lockett’s not a slouch, sporting an impressive 24.5% target share. In addition, Lockett has over 300 intended air yards, with 306 to be specific.
Also, according to Pro Football Focus, Lockett’s run 123 routes compared to 121 for Metcalf. Additionally, he’s pacing the team with 83.3 receiving yards per game, and his 20 receptions are tied for the team lead with Metcalf. So, as I said, there are two studs in Seattle’s passing attack.
Unfortunately for one of those studs, they’re likely to draw superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey in coverage regularly in this week’s contest. Last year, Metcalf was the unlucky recipient of combating with Ramsey, which was by Ramsey’s request. It’s not a guarantee he’ll be used the same this year, but I’m operating under the assumption that that will be the case without evidence to the contrary.
As a result, Lockett will face less imposing coverage. The matchup isn’t imposing for Seattle’s passing game as a whole, either. Football Outsiders ranks the Rams 17th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, Lockett’s outlook for hitting is over is enhanced by a likely pace boost. Football Outsiders credits the Rams with playing at the fastest situation neutral pace. Finally, Bet Prep slightly leans toward the over as well, projecting 69.88 receiving yards.
Chris Carson UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Chris Carson appears to be less than 100% healthy. He didn’t practice Tuesday, reportedly dealing with a neck injury. Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, he’s played 45% or fewer of Seattle’s offensive snaps the last two weeks.
Making matters worse, he was inefficient last week, rushing for an ugly 2.31 yards per rush attempt. Also, backup Alex Collins was considerably more efficient, rumbling for 4.40 yards per rush attempt. Looking beyond Carson’s rushing work, the offensive line isn’t doing him any favors. Seattle’s offensive line has earned Pro Football Focus’s 25th ranking in run blocking. Oof.
Carson’s rushed for 31 yards or fewer in two of four games. Coupled with his sub-50% snap share the last two weeks, I’m locking in the under.
Cooper Kupp OVER 90.5 Receiving Yards
Cooper Kupp suffered his first 2021 hiccup last week. Yet, I’m still encouraged by the game. Unfortunately, he set season-lows with five receptions and 64 receiving yards. However, he also set a season-high with 13 targets. In fact, he’s reached double-digit targets in every game this year.
He’s also reached 96 receiving yards or more in three of four games. Kupp has developed instant chemistry with new quarterback Matthew Stafford, and his results speak for themselves. He ranks first in targets (46), tied for second in receptions (30), and third in receiving yards per game (107.8).
Also, I noted it above, but I’ll reiterate here that the Rams are playing at the fastest situation neutral pace. Additionally, according to Sharp Football Stats, with an offensive scoring margin ranking from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Rams’ 60% pass rate is five percent higher than the league average. Thus, the Rams offense playing fast and passing at an above-average clip forbodes great results for the No. 1 pass-catcher in the offense.
Finally, my infatuation with the Kupp’s over for 90.5 receiving yards is supported by Bet Prep. They project Kupp to amass 92.31 receiving yards.
