The Monday Night Football contest between the Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 17. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 17.
Nick Chubb OVER 88.5 Rushing Yards
The line for this game has swung overnight. The Browns have been eliminated from the playoffs, and the Steelers have an outside chance to qualify. Nevertheless, I view the Browns as the better team, and their path to success tonight is paved on the ground.
According to Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh is 30th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Steelers surrender the second-most rushing yards per game (120.53) to running backs at a blistering 4.83 yards per rush attempt.
On the flip side, the Browns are one of the best run-blocking teams in the NFL. According to Football Outsiders, Cleveland’s offensive line is sixth in Power Rank, fourth in Stuffed Rank, and first in Adjusted Line Yards. Moreover, Pro Football Focus has graded the Browns as the fourth-best run-blocking team.
Now, I’m arguably burying the lede by addressing Nick Chubb last. The guy is a beast. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 75 rush attempts this year, he has been third in missed tackles forced (55), second in 10-plus yard runs (38), and first in yards after contact per attempt (4.21 YCO/A). As a result, he’s pummeling defenses for 95.3 rushing yards per game, besting 88.5 rushing yards in seven of 12 games. So, it’s easy to see why Bet Prep aligns with my pick, projecting Chubb or 96.89 rushing yards.
Austin Hooper UNDER 25.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s choose a correlated pick with the second selection in this space. If I expect the Browns to have their way with the Steelers on the ground, they shouldn’t have to rely on the passing-game options as often tonight. Additionally, the tight end position is a muddled mess for the Browns.
Cleveland uses all three of their tight ends, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant. The trio has played 13 games together this year, cannibalizing one another’s production. Sure, according to Pro Football Focus, Hooper has run the most routes (244), earned the most targets (47), and hauled in the most receptions (31) of the three tight ends, but those are modest totals. Further, Njoku is nipping at his heels in most of those categories, with 229 routes, 42 targets, 27 receptions, and a position-leading 407 receiving yards. Finally, Bryant chips in and take away Hooper and Njoku looks.
As a result, Hooper averages only 22.08 receiving yards per game in the 13 games all three tight ends have been active. Finally, the matchup is challenging. Pittsburgh allows only 44.53 receiving yards per game to tight ends, leaving a small pie for Cleveland’s three-headed monster to divvy up. Thus, Bet Prep projects Hooper for only 24.04 receiving yards, supporting taking his under.
Diontae Johnson OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards
Diontae Johnson has provided the Steelers metronome-like consistency week to week as their top passing-game option. The team’s No. 1 wideout has cleared 72.5 receiving yards in eight of 14 contests, adding a 71-yard and 72-yard effort to his ledger for good measure.
When these AFC North foes met in Week 8, Johnson hauled in six of 13 targets for 98 yards. Thankfully, his underlying numbers are eye-catching for the year as well. According to Sports Info Solutions, Johnson is 14th in Intended Air Yards (1,365) and seventh in target share (26.1%).
So, I expect the volume to rule the roost for Johnson tonight, pushing him over his yardage prop. But, finally, the matchup isn’t imposing. The Browns are only 19th in pass defense DVOA.
