The Monday Night Football contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 11. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 11.
Leonard Fournette OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards
Leonard Fournette is positioned to pummel the Giants tonight. The Buccaneers are 11-point favorites, and the Giants are most susceptible to being beaten on the ground. Sure, I don’t expect a tiger to change its stripes and the Buccaneers to abandon their pass-happy approach, but Fournette should still get ample work to surpass 64.5 rushing yards.
Fournette has suffered from playing in a negative game script in much of Tampa Bay’s last two games, a pair of losses. However, he rushed for 92 yards, 67 yards, 82 yards, and 82 yards in wins in Week 4 through Week 7. So if you join me in expecting the Bucs to win like their large-favorite status indicates they should, then that’s a great starting point for Fournette going over.
A neutral or positive game script will allow him to rumble against New York’s below-average run defense. According to Football Outsiders, Big Blue is 30th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they’re coughing up 109.33 rushing yards per game at 4.62 yards per rush attempt to running backs this year.
They’re one of the worst rush defenses in the league, and the Bucs are above-average to elite run blocking, depending on your source. Pro Football Focus grades the Bucs as the 13th-best run-blocking team. However, Football Outsiders credits them with being first in Adjusted Line Yards. Therefore, I love Fournette’s odds of rushing for more than 64.5 yards.
Darius Slayton UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards
If the game goes according to plan, the Giants will need to air it out regularly to catch up or keep up. So, there will be an opportunity for the G-Men’s pass-catchers to pick up receiving yards. However, Darius Slayton is a poor bet to be among their top pass-catchers.
Slayton has played six games this year. It’s been feast or famine for Slayton. He amassed 65 receiving yards in Week 1, 54 in Week 2, and 63 in Week 7. However, he’s totaled four targets, one reception, and eight receiving yards in the other three games combined. Further, he has zero yards on three targets in New York’s previous two games.
Slayton’s best work this year has come before the emergence of Kadarius Toney and with other integral players out. Specifically, in Week 6, the Giants were down Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Toney. Barkley appears to be trending toward playing after participating in practice this week, and Shepard is the only member of the group that was out in Week 6 who will be out this week. As a result, Bet Prep understandably is projecting Slayton for only 34.03 receiving yards, keeping him under his line.
Kadarius Toney OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
I alluded to New York’s cupboards potentially being nearly full this week for the offense above. However, I also noted Shepard is out. Toney has benefited immensely from Shepard’s absence.
According to Pro Football Focus, in Week 4, Week 5, and Week 9, with Shepard on the shelf, Toney led the receivers in routes (78), targets (21), receptions (17), receiving yards (276), and produced a blistering 3.54 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR). He was also moved inside and out, aligning wide for 33 passing snaps and in the slot — where Shepard typically resides — for 51 passing snaps.
Unfortunately, Toney was held to only nine yards in Week 9. However, in Week 4, he caught six of nine targets for 78 yards. Then, in Week 5, he erupted for 10 receptions for 189 yards on 13 targets. Additionally, Daniel Jones attempted only 20 passes in the Week 9 win. Instead, they leaned heavily on the running game, feeding 26 carries to their backs.
Since Big Blue are double-digit underdogs, I expect them to take to the air. Thus, this is a golden opportunity for another big showing from the Giants’ first-round pick in this year’s draft. Bet Prep is in alignment with my thinking, projecting Toney for 50.17 receiving yards.
