UFC 269 Odds: Sharp Bets Back Oliveira, Public On Poirier

UFC fighter Charles Oliveira celebrates after a victory over Jared Gordon
Image Credit: Jason Da Silva-USA TODAY Sportsh

UFC 269 odds are on the board and getting plenty of attention for a big Saturday night card in Las Vegas. For MMA fans, it’s the last high-profile event of the year. Which means it’s the last chance of 2021 to see what happens when Mr. Knee meets Mr. Face.

Tonight’s main event at T-Mobile Arena pits lightweight champion Charles Oliveira against Dustin Poirier, with several more noteworthy bouts on the card.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights and intel on opening/current UFC 269 betting odds and action. Check back through Saturday evening for updates.

UFC 269 Odds

Favorite Odds Underdog Odds Weight Class
Dustin Poirier  -130 Charles Oliveira +110 Lightweight (155 pounds max)
Amanda Nunes -915 Julianna Pena +650 Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Santiaggo Ponzinibbio -115 Geoff Neal -105 Welterweight (170 pounds)
Cody Garbrandt -128 Kai Kara-France +108 Flyweight (125 pounds)
Sean O’Malley -295 Raulian Paiva +250 Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Josh Emmett -145 Dan Ige +125 Featherweight (145 pounds)
Dominick Cruz -112 Pedro Munhoz -108 Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Tai Tuivasa -120 Augusto Sakai Even Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Bruno Silva -355 Jordan Wright +295 Middleweight (185 pounds)
Andre Muniz -210 Eryk Anders +180 Middleweight (185 pounds)
Miranda Maverick -145 Erin Blanchfield +125 Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)
Ryan Hall -185 Darrick Minner +160 Featherweight (145 pounds)
Randy Costa -190 Tony Kelley +165 Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Gillian Robertson -290 Priscila Cachoeria +245 Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Odds via Circa Sports and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on Dec. 11

Oliveira vs Poirier Betting Action

Charles Oliveira (left) strikes opponent Christos Giagos (right) with his leg during UFC Fight Night
Image Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Poirier is the challenger tonight, but he opened as a -140 chalk at Circa Sports and stretched to -165, before backing up this afternoon to -130. Correspondingly, Oliveira moved from +120 to +145 and is now +110 in the UFC 269 odds market.

“I undercut the market a little bit,” Circa MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas said of his Nov. 22 opening moneyline. “So we got bet up to Poirier -165, but once it reached that point, we started to get sharp action on the ‘dog, at +145, +135 and +130 on Oliveira. There’s more public action coming in on Poirier, and he’s of course tied into parlays.

“As of now, we need Poirier small, despite the parlay liability. But that could change by fight time. I’m hoping to need the ‘dog slightly by the time the fight starts.”

Oliveira-Poirier tops a five-bout main card that begins at 10 p.m. ET.

Previous Oliveira vs Poirier Odds Updates

UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Although Oliveira is the defending champion, Poirier has been favored since this bout first hit the board. At BetMGM Nevada, Saturday’s title bout opened at Poirier -150/Oliveira +125 and advanced to -160/+135. But the moneyline is now down to Poirier -135/Oliveira +115.

“We’ve taken some big action on the ‘dog in this one,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said, specifically noting a $43,000 play on Oliveira at +135. Tickets are neck-and-neck, a few more on Oliveira, but money is 5/1 on Oliveira. But there are a lot of parlays on Poirier.”

Nationally for BetMGM, per data analyst John Ewing, the book is a little heavy to the underdog on straight bets. Oliveira is taking 56% of tickets/62% of money.

Nunes vs Pena Betting Action

Amanda Nunes (right) lands a punch to the face of Megan Anderson (left) in their UFC featherweight championship fight during the UFC 259
Image Credit: Jeff Bottari-Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Women’s bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes stretched from -800 to -925 Circa Sports. Nunes is now -915, with Julianna Pena a +650 underdog.

“Not a lot of straight bets coming in on the favorite at that price. Just lots of parlays on Nunes, and that’s why the price went up,” Circa’s Nick Kalikas said. “Lots of straight bets on the underdog. We are gonna need the underdog Pena, but hopefully not too bad because of the straight-bet action on Pena.”

Previous Nunes vs Pena Odds Updates

UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: The UFC 269 odds board suggests that the co-main isn’t expected to be anywhere near as competitive as the main event. Women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes advanced to -1,000 against Julianna Pena on Friday night at BetMGM Nevada, after opening -750. Correspondingly, Pena moved from +500 to +625.

“Nevada tickets, though, are all Pena, like 6/1. Money is virtually dead even, $1,000 more on Nunes,” Shelton said.

For BetMGM nationally, bettors are also more attracted to the sizable underdog. Ticket count is beyond 3/1 and money just shy of 2/1 on Pena.

Neal vs Ponzinibbio Betting Action

Santiago Ponzinibbio (left) throws a left uppercut at opponent Mike Perry during UFC Fight Night
Image Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This fight has been close all along on Circa Sports’ UFC 269 odds board. Geoff Neal opened Nov. 22 as a -115 favorite to Santiago Ponzinibbio’s -105, and the numbers have flipped to Ponzinibbio -115/Neal -105.

“This one was interesting for sure,” Circa’s Nick Kalikas said. “Both fighters are really good strikers and will probably stay up on their feet. This should be a very fun fight. We will need Neal at post time, which is what I was hoping for.”

Previous Neal vs Ponzinibbio Odds Updates

UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Santiago Ponzinibbio opened a modest -115 favorite to Geoff Neal’s -105 at BetMGM Nevada. Ponzinibbio got as far as -135, but he’s now back at the opening price for this weltwerweight matchup.

“Tickets and money are really close. A few more tickets on the favorite, 200 more bucks on Neal,” Shelton said of action at BetMGM’s Vegas properties. “It’s the best two-way action of any of the fights.”

Other UFC 269 Betting Action

UFC fighter Sean O'Malley (right) kicks opponent Thomas Almeida in their bantamweight fight during UFC 260
Image Credit: Jeff Bottari-Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The top bout on the five-fight early prelims card, Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders, has drawn significant attention from professional bettors at Circa Sports.

“We’ve seen a lot of sharp action coming in on Andre Muniz, several different sharps,” Circa MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas said.

Muniz opened -140 to Anders’ +120, and the moneyline is now out to Muniz -210/Anders +180 for this middleweight match.

“Early on, there was two-way sharp action, but after that, it has all been one-way sharp action. We are buried in sharp action on Muniz,” Kalikas said. “We’re gonna need the ‘dog pretty good. This is the most action we’ve taken on a prelims fight in a while. Anders is gonna have to keep this fight upright to have a chance to win.”

Previous UFC 269 Betting Action Updates

UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: No surprise, the Raulian Paiva-Sean O’Malley match is getting plenty of attention in the UFC 269 odds market. And it’s not the underdog Paiva whom bettors are flocking to. After opening -275, O’Malley is up to a -325 favorite at BetMGM Nevada, with Pavia a +255 pup.

“Tickets are just over 2/1 on O’Malley, but money is almost 30/1 on O’Malley,” Shelton said. “On parlays, the ticket count is 7/1 and money almost 40/1 on O’Malley. Basically every parlay ticket we’ve written has O’Malley on it.”

Nationally, however, wagering is much more balanced on this fight at BetMGM — at least on straight bets. O’Malley is taking 57% of tickets and 62% of money.