When last we propped out on the ice, we went 2-3 with NHL props selections. And we needed every minute and an empty netter in the Golden Knights-Coyotes game to get there, with Arizona’s Clayton Keller tallying a point in the final 30 seconds of the tilt.
Let’s see if we can get a little more sweat-free with our Tuesday NHL props selections. Here are our five favorite plays from a loaded nine-game slate on the ice.
Odds via FanDuel and DraftKings, and updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on March 1.
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New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets
The prop: Goal in the first 10 minutes
The odds: Over -165/Under +135 (DraftKings)
The Devils are 8-2 to this prop their last 10; Columbus is 7-3, according to Twitter user psuOtto. Thanks to New Jersey’s … uh … unique approach to goaltending — is it good when your expected starter ranks 106th of 109 in goals saved above expected? — this prop connects at a 71 percent rate in the Garden State.
Yes, the Over side of this Tuesday NHL prop is pretty “juicy” … but bets with a high probability of cashing usually are. Lay the price and enjoy what should be a quick, easy payout.
Tampa Bay: D Victor Hedman
The prop: 0.5 assists (vs. Ottawa)
The odds: Over -165/Under +130
This NHL prop isn’t a play against Ottawa, which isn’t completely helpless in suppressing scoring, so much as it is rolling with a great player.
Hedman has tallied helpers in 30 of his last 50, and 16 of 24 at home this season. Against teams with a losing record, Hedman is 15-for-20 with assists, though only one of those occurred in three games against the Sens this year. That includes a bizarro contest in December, when the Senators somehow shut out the two-time defending champs. (Tampa must have been enchanted by all that … Ottawa nightlife?)
The Senators are missing defensemen Thomas Chabot and Nikita Zaitsev due to the flu, and BetPrep sees about a 4 percent edge in expected value on this play against a line of -165. So the value is thin, but it’s still worth a look.
Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings
The prop: 1.5 first-period goals
The odds: Over -145/Under +115
Put it this way: Detroit piled up seven goals in a losing — yes, losing — effort to Toronto last time out. And yet on a night when goaltending was more of a halfhearted suggestion than anything else, the Red Wings still only managed one in the first period.
Detroit is tallying first-period goals at a 46 percent clip this season, and Carolina is even worse at 43 percent. In their last 20 combined games, the Wings and Canes have managed a total of 16 first-period goals. Carolina netminder Frederick Anderson has been exceptional this year, and while the Wings have been scrappy, they just don’t have tons of firepower.
Calgary Flames: C Blake Coleman
The prop: 2.5 shots on goal (at Minnesota)
The odds: Over -115/ Under -110
The Flames’ offense is clicking more than an all-Adam Sandler video store (timely!), and Coleman has been right there in the middle of it. Yeah, he’s only eclipsed Tuesday’s shot prop number in half of his 50 games this season, but look at the results over the past two weeks: The center/winger has registered three shots or more in five of his last seven games.
On Saturday in the opener of a home-and-home against Minnesota, Calgary peppered Wild netminder Kappo Kahkonen with 35 shots, and Coleman tied for the team lead with four.
Do the Flames have more prolific shooters? Sure. Will the books charge you for wagering on those shooters? Turns out they emphatically will. At -115, there’s a lot more value on Coleman than laying -160 with Matthew Tkachuk or -180 with Johnny Gaudreau (the only two Calgary players with more shots than Coleman).
Winnipeg Jets: C Paul Stastny
The prop: 0.5 points (vs. Montreal)
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
Ride the cold hand. And Stastny is icier than Sub-Zero driving a popsicle truck.
Winnipeg’s center is getting plenty of ice time, but he’s not doing much with it, having produced just 23 points on the season. He’s notched a point in just 19 of 42 games (45.2%), and has shown up on the score sheet in just three of his last 10. Basically, Stastny is the Winnipeg of Winnipeg: You know it’s there, you’re pretty sure there’s a good reason for it, but you have no idea what actual purpose it serves.
When you only have to lay a dime on a bet hitting at a 55 percent clip, you have to take it — even against the league’s most porous defense. Play the Under on this Tuesday NHL prop.
