A nice little 3-2 Saturday kept us on the right side of the NHL props ledger. Now we enter that time of year when the NHL offers a counterprogramming respite to everyone who’s sick of hearing about how Southeast Muskogee State has a real chance this year before going out and losing by 80 to Duke.
Just like the Montreal Canadiens are headed to draft lottery glory, we’re headed back to work with our Tuesday NHL props. Here are our top five prop selections from the league’s hefty 11-game slate.
Odds via BetMGM and DraftKings, and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on March 8.
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Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils
The prop: Goal in the first 10 minutes
The odds: Yes -170/No +140
We’ll start with ol’ reliable. This may be the single best bet you can make in the NHL right now, and we’re going to keep hammering it until the oceans recede to dust, the sun rises in the west, or the Devils start employing a goalie who’s slightly less porous than a stray chunk of pumice.
Once again: New Jersey is 8-2 in its last 10 to this prop, and has had a first-10 goal on the ledger in 40 of 56 games this year, according to Twitter’s PsuOtto. The Avs have seen a first-10 goal in 37 of 56 games overall, including six of the last 10. And tonight Colorado may get to fire pucks at the Nico Daws, a goalie with the name of a low-level mob enforcer … and the ice time of a low-level mob enforcer.
Occasionally you’ll get burned by the heavy juice and have to bleed some profit back, but like Rick Ross said (or B.B. King, if you’re old): You gotta pay the cost to be the boss. The boss of first-10 goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins: G Tristan Jarry
The prop: 28.5 saves (vs. Florida)
The odds: Over -125/Under +100
Whether you’re sweating your way through a three-day weekend in Vegas, visiting your local Walgreen’s in the time of COVID, or watching Pens-Panthers, you can say the same thing: There are going to be shots tonight.
The first time these teams hooked up in October, they put a combined 86 pucks on net. In November, they dialed it down to a mere 69. Florida still leads the league in total shots on goal and Corsi percentage, which measures a team’s total shots divided by opponents shots. At 56.32 percent, Florida tops everyone. Meaning Jarry — who sat out the first meeting against the Panthers and made 36 saves on 38 shots in the second — better limber up before the game.
St. Louis Blues: F Jordan Kyrou
The prop: 0.5 points (vs. Ottawa)
The odds: Over -180/Under +140
Kyrou has etched his name on the scoresheet in seven straight, he leads the Blues in points per 60 minutes, and the Sens have been playing a little above their heads. To that latter point: Ottawa is only 16th in goals-against average, but is fourth in expected goals against, behind only Columbus, Philly, and Buffalo. In other words, the Senators aren’t surrendering nearly as many goals as they should be.
Plus, Kyrou gets to play alongside Vladimir Tarasenko, which is the kind of thing you’d want to do if you were in the business of scoring points.
Yeah, it’s another big juice lay with Tuesday NHL props. But after getting blanked at Ottawa when these teams last met Feb. 12, expect the 23-year-old Blues forward to some extra motivation Tuesday.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets
The prop: 2.0 third-period goals
The odds: Over -160/Under +110
Here are the combined third-period goal totals in Tampa’s last eight games: 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2 and 4. Meanwhile, there have been at least three goals netted in third period in eight of Winnipeg’s last 12 (and at least two scored in 10 of those dozen contests)
When it comes to combined third-period goals for the season, Winnipeg is at 71.4 percent and Tampa is at 70.9 percent.
Now here’s the one hiccup: Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy keeps doing stuff like this:
Andrei Vasilevskiy.
That's it. That's the tweet. pic.twitter.com/ES0XCPvs92
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) March 7, 2022
And this.
.@Jpw03 is all of us watching Vasy last night, tbh.
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) March 7, 2022
Still. There’s every chance the Bolts can cover this by themselves. And if you’re feeling feisty, you can get Over 2.5 at +160 on DraftKings’ Tuesday NHL props board. (BetMGM’s number is only +120.)
Washington Capitals: C Nicklas Backstrom
The prop: 1.5 shots on goal (at Calgary)
The odds: Over -145/Under +110
When it comes to eclipsing this prop, Backstrom is a 50/50 play this season — he’s at 23 of 46. Tilting this one slightly toward the Under is the fact that only Boston and Tampa Bay have given up fewer shots on goal than Calgary, so the Flames should handily win the possession game here. That we can soak up a little juice with plus-money odds makes this one worth the look.
As an added bonus, Backstrom has only gone Over this prop once in his last six on the road; that was in Washington’s last game out, against a Philly team that lets foes shoot at will. Even worse, the Caps’ vet didn’t even get a shot off against Montreal a month ago. Your great-aunt who spends all her time perusing dusty LPs at garage sales just got a shot off against Montreal. And, knowing the Habs, it probably went in, too.
