The NBA playoffs are upon us. There are another three games to choose from on Tuesday, and the action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET. While the stakes have changed for the teams on the court, the goal from our perspective has not: help you make money. Throughout the playoffs, Props.com will present our top NBA props selections from the day’s action, then do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on April, 19.
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Atlanta Hawks: PG Trae Young
The prop: 39.5 points + rebounds + assists (at Miami)
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Young is coming off a dreadful performance in Game 1 vs. the Heat, finishing with just eight points, six rebounds, and four assists over 28.5 minutes. He shot a paltry 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from 3-point range, so he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
However, Young had been red hot prior to that performance. He racked up 50 points + rebounds + assists in the play-in game vs. the Cavaliers, and he averaged 30.8 points, 10.9 assists, and 3.0 rebounds over his final 11 regular-season contests.
That makes this a very appealing buy-low spot for Ice Trae. He should see some positive shooting regression in this contest, and he should also play more minutes if Tuesday’s game is more competitive. That combination should be enough to push him over 39.5 PRA in Game 2 against Miami.
Miami Heat: F P.J. Tucker
The prop: 7.5 points (vs. Atlanta)
The odds: Over +100/Under -135
Tucker is a solid role player, and he helped the Bucks win a title last year with his defense on Kevin Durant. However, no one is going to confuse him with a scoring threat.
Tucker was able to knock down his limited shot attempts in his last contest, and he was a perfect 4-for-4 from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen very often. In fact, that was just the ninth game all season where Tucker knocked down more than two triples. Overall, Tucker scored fewer than eight points in 11 of his final 12 regular-season contests, so this number feels inflated. Let’s take advantage.
Memphis Grizzlies: PF Jaren Jackson Jr.
The prop: 21.5 points + rebounds (vs. Minnesota)
The odds: Over -115/Under -120
Jackson is an extremely talented big man who is capable of spacing the floor on offense and protecting the rim on defense. His average of 2.3 blocks per game ranked first in the league this season, and he also knocked down 1.6 3-pointers per game.
However, Jackson has a huge problem that has kept him from reaching his full upside: fouls. He seems to get into foul trouble on a nightly basis, which is why he was limited to an average of 27.3 minutes per game during the regular season. Triple J unsurprisingly got into foul trouble in Game 1, which limited him to just 12 points and four boards over 24 minutes.
Even if Jackson does manage to keep his hands to himself, he still doesn’t figure to see a huge boost in minutes during the playoffs. Brandon Clarke is a very capable backup, so he’s going to need some minutes as well. I have no problem going back to the under once again in Game 2 against Minnesota.
New Orleans Pelicans: SF Brandon Ingram
The prop: 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (at Phoenix)
The odds: Over -105/Under -125
The Pelicans looked completely overmatched in their first game vs. the Pelicans, which isn’t all that surprising. The Suns were the best team in the league by a wide margin, while the Pelicans have one of the worst winning percentages for any playoff squad in league history. They’re going to need huge performances from Ingram and C.J. McCollum just to potentially steal one game.
Fortunately, there’s some room for growth with Ingram in Game 2. He was a dreadful 6-17 from the field in Game 1, putting him well below his season average of 46.1 percent. Overall, Ingram averaged 24.0 points, 6.2 boards, and 5.9 assists per 36 minutes this season, and he has the potential to play closer to 40 minutes on Tuesday. The Suns are a tough matchup, but Ingram is talented enough to still hit the over on his current PRA prop.
Phoenix Suns: SF Mikal Bridges
The prop: 13.5 points (vs. New Orleans)
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
Bridges is one of the best role players in the league. He’s a force on the defensive end, and he also provides quality spacing on offense. The Suns increased their league-leading Net Rating by +6.7 points per 100 possessions with Bridges on the floor this season, which was the top mark on the squad.
That said, Bridges is not really a scoring threat. The Suns don’t need him to score playing alongside Devin Booker and Chris Paul, and Bridges posted a usage rate of just 15.0% during the regular season. That was the second-lowest mark among the team’s regulars, with only Jae Crowder posting a worse mark.
Bridges finished with 11 points in Game 1 of this series, and he didn’t even shoot the ball all that poorly. He shot 44.4 percent from the field and added three free throws, so he looks like an appealing fade candidate once again.
