Quiet quitting is a popular phrase of late. The Titans aren’t quiet quitting, though. Instead, they’re yelling into a megaphone about their intentions of mailing it in this week before a must-win game for the AFC South title next week. As a result, a couple of their passing-related props are intriguing. The other prop is a fun matchup-driven choice. Let’s hop into the top three Titans vs. Cowboys player props below.
Titans vs. Cowboys Player Props: TNF Week 17
For a full list of Titans vs. Cowboys player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Malik Willis Over 0.5 Interceptions (-225)
UPDATE: Willis will not start on Thursday, as the Titans have decided to roll with third-string QB Josh Dobbs instead.
Investing in the interception props for lousy quarterbacks has proven fruitful for me recently. I’m going back to the well again for the Thursday Night Football player props. The Titans selected Malik Willis in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft, and he’s been an unmitigated disaster as a passer.
But, of course, that wasn’t surprising. Willis was a work in progress in college and routinely put the ball in harm’s way. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Willis was tied for the 15th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (3.7 TWP%) among 71 FBS quarterbacks who had at least 350 dropbacks in 2021. In addition, Willis had at least one turnover-worthy play in seven of 13 contests last year, despite playing a soft schedule for Liberty.
In his rookie year, he’s had at least one turnover-worthy play in two of his three starts and was picked off in those two games. Conversely, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Cowboys have tied for the fifth-most interceptions (14) this season. Further, Dallas has recorded an interception in nine of 15 games this year. The Titans are double-digit underdogs and will likely have to air it out, even if they eventually willingly wave the white flag during the contest. So, I expect Willis to throw an interception.
Where to bet: Malik Willis over 0.5 interceptions | -225 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (-155)
The Titans should be easier to run against without integral members of their defense. However, they’re also highly exploitable through the air. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Titans are 29th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 9. Second, Tennessee has allowed the second-most passing yards per game (279.6). Third, teams have attacked them relentlessly through the air.
Per numberFire, Tennessee’s opponents have attempted 213 passes and 109 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 10. Those teams have also attempted 31 passes and 25 rushes by non-quarterbacks when leading by at least eight points. Thus, teams haven’t taken their foot off the accelerator.
The Cowboys have passed 196 times and rushed 161 times with non-quarterbacks when in a neutral game script since Week 10. So, they’re not shy about chucking the pigskin. Dalton Schultz is one of Dallas’s integral weapons through the air. He’s had a 17.4% Target Share and 26 receptions on Dak Prescott’s 235 passes since Week 10.
Since Prescott returned in Week 7 from his thumb injury, Schultz has exceeded 3.5 receptions five times in nine contests. Prescott’s reliable safety valve has a cushy matchup that can allow him to best 3.5 receptions before the Cowboys pull their starters. The Titans have allowed 5.6 receptions per game to tight ends this year. Schultz and the starters might watch the game from the sideline for the entire fourth quarter, but Schultz can still hit his over on 3.5 receptions.
Where to bet: Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions | -155 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Robert Woods Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Titans aren’t even pretending to care about this game. Their injury report speaks volumes about how they view this game.
Ruled OUT for the #Titans vs Cowboys:
QB Ryan Tannehill
DL Jeffery Simmons
T Nicholas Petit-Frere
S Amani Hooker
OLB Bud Dupree
LB Zach Cunningham
LB Dylan Cole
DB Josh ThompsonDOUBTFUL:
RB Derrick Henry
CB Kristian Fulton
OLB Denico Autry— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) December 28, 2022
There’s seemingly a high probability they’ll exercise caution with veteran players and build in some extra rest for them in this contest. For instance, Robert Woods has played every game this season after suffering a season-ending knee injury last year, and he’s in his 10th season as a pro. Therefore, reducing his snaps before a must-win game makes logical sense.
Furthermore, Woods can fall short of 23.5 yards even if he plays his usual allotment of snaps. In fact, he’s had under 23.5 receiving yards six times, including one of Willis’s starts. Woods hasn’t been sharp lately, either. He’s had fewer than 23.5 receiving yards in three of his last five contests.
Finally, Willis isn’t an NFL-caliber passer presently. He attempted 10, 16, and 23 passes in his starts, and the 99 yards he passed for last week were a single-game high. Tennessee’s passing attack is unlikely to find any footing. So, I’m taking the under for 23.5 receiving yards for Woods.
Where to bet: Robert Woods Under 23.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More TNF Week 17 Bets
Titans vs. Cowboys Prediction: Thursday Night Football Picks (Week 17)