The Jets are once again without Mike White this week. White’s absence directly impacts the first two props, as his mistaken-prone fill-in is fun to pick on. Additionally, a gadget player’s prop is eye-catching for the Jaguars. Let’s jump into the analysis for my three favorite Jets vs. Jaguars player props below.
Jets vs. Jaguars Player Props: TNF Week 16
For a full list of Jets vs. Jaguars player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Zach Wilson Over 0.5 Interceptions (-205)
For better or worse, Mike LaFleur continued to lean into the passing attack without White last week. According to numberFire, the Jets aired it out 35 times versus only 19 rushes by non-quarterbacks in a neutral game script.
Predictably, Wilson had plenty of gaffes. The second-year quarterback completed only 51.43% of his passes and threw one interception. Moreover, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Wilson had two turnover-worthy plays. Wilson has multiple turnover-worthy plays in five of eight games and at least one in six contests. As a result, the erratic quarterback has the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.6 TWP%) out of 51, who have at least 60 dropbacks this year.
Wilson is also hot-garbage against pressure. In fact, he has the highest turnover-worthy-play rate (10.5 TWP%) out of 38 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 40 times under pressure this year.
Conversely, the Jaguars do a great job of forcing interceptions and generating pressure. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jacksonville is tied for the eighth-most interceptions (12) and has the sixth-highest pressure rate (24.2%) this year. So, Wilson feels like a shoo-in to toss at least one interception, making it palatable to eat the chalk on his -205 line.
Where to bet: Zach Wilson over 0.5 interceptions | -205 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Josh Allen Over 0.75 Sacks (+105)
Wilson isn’t just a turnover machine. He’s also a sack-taking savant. First, he has the ninth-highest sack rate (8.2%) among qualified quarterbacks this year. Second, he was sacked once in his season debut in Week 4 and has taken multiple sacks in seven starts since then. Additionally, Wilson took precisely four sacks in each of his last two starts.
Wilson isn’t an elite mover and holds onto the ball forever. According to PFF, he’s tied for the fifth-slowest time to throw (3.06 seconds) out of 51 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 60 times this year. Thus, he’s inviting sacks and pressure.
Fortunately, the Jaguars can oblige his invitation. As stated, Jacksonville has the sixth-highest pressure rate (24.2%) this year. Wilson will take sacks in this contest, and Josh Allen is a decent bet to bring him down. Allen is tied for Jacksonville’s team lead with 5.0 sacks. Additionally, per PFF, Allen is tied for the 31st-highest win rate (17.5%) out of 200 edge rushers who’ve played at least one pass-rushing snap this year. Finally, Allen has had a sack in back-to-back games. Thus, I’m happy to bet on him at plus odds to wrangle a sack against sack-prone Wilson.
Where to bet: Josh Allen Over 0.75 sacks | +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jamal Agnew Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Jaguars are a pass-first club, and Trevor Lawrence is cooking with gasoline. Jacksonville has attempted 85 passes and only 42 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since their bye in Week 11.
Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram have done the heavy lifting for Jacksonville’s passing attack. However, Jamal Agnew has had a meaningful role. The return man and offensive weapon has operated as a multi-faceted contributor on the offense.
According to PFF, the artist known as Swagnew has run only 30 routes in Jacksonville’s previous four games. Still, he’s been targeted on a whopping 40% of his routes. As a result, Agnew had 10 receptions for 85 yards in those contests. He also had an average depth of target of 2.2 yards downfield, making his targets high-percentage throws. Since Week 12, Agnew had 37, 0, 36, and 12 receiving yards.
I expect Doug Pederson to continue to dig into his bag of tricks to manufacture receptions for Agnew. He might feel even more inclined to do so this week because of the challenging matchup. Thus, I love Agnew’s odds of exceeding 8.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Jamal Agnew Over 8.5 Receiving Yards | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook
