The Buccaneers thoroughly whooped the Cowboys in Week 1, beating them 19-3. These teams aren’t the same as they were back then. Tampa Bay wasn’t sharp most of the year, and Dallas’s offense was electrifying more often than not. The Bucs might need to be aggressive to keep pace. Further, they’re a pass-happy offense at its core, influencing all three forthcoming Bucs vs. Cowboys player props.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Player Props: Super Wild Card Monday
For a full list of Buccaneers vs. Cowboys player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Tom Brady Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-114)
No one will confuse this season for one of Tom Brady’s best campaigns. Nevertheless, per Pro-Football-Reference, Brady averaged 276.1 per game. That mark climbs to 288.1 passing yards per game after excluding the meaningless Week 17 game when he played only part of the contest. The G.O.A.T. had over 275.5 passing yards in nine of 16 games he played from start to finish and a median outcome of 280.5 passing yards in his full games.
The Bucs have a pass-happy offense that maintained their passing tendencies late in the regular season. They’ll take to the air against Dallas’s sieve-like pass defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys are 23rd in pass defense DVOA since Week 12. Dallas played a pitiful collection of quarterbacks to close out the regular season. Still, Trevor Lawrence lit them up for 318 yards, and Gardner Minshew picked them apart for 355 yards before laying an egg against the Saints the following week, an indictment of Dallas’s pass defense.
Brady had some of his highest yardage outputs near the end of the regular season. He had more than 275.5 passing yards in his final three full contests and four of his last five. So, I’m enamored with his passing yardage over.
Where to bet: Tom Brady Over 275.5 Passing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mike Evans Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Mike Evans was the polar opposite of a consistent receiver. He averaged 74.9 receiving yards per game. However, Evans had 207 receiving yards in one game and had fewer than 45 yards five times. The big-play wideout had more than 65.5 receiving yards only six times in 15 games this season.
Fortunately, he has a dreamy matchup this week. First, according to Football Outsiders, No. 2 wide receivers averaged the most receiving yards per game (63.7) against the Cowboys this year. Second, per The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, Alec Pierce (86 receiving yards), Zay Jones (85), DeVonta Smith (88), and A.J. Brown (70) all had more than 65.5 receiving yards when aligned wide against the Cowboys since Week 13. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Evans played 76.0% of his passing snaps aligned wide in his last six games. So, he’s positioned to smash against a defense that’s been barbecued by perimeter wide receivers.
Evans is also a big play waiting to happen. Per numberFire, he led the Bucs in Air Yards (706) in Tampa Bay’s games from Week 12 through Week 17. As a result, I love Evans’s chances for piling up receiving yards against Dallas’s suspect secondary.
Where to bet: Mike Evans Over 65.5 Receiving Yards | -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Russell Gage Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Russell Gage can take advantage of the same cushy matchup as Evans. First, he overtook Julio Jones for the No. 3 wide receiver gig. In their last two games together, Gage ran 59 routes, and Jones ran only 27. Second, in those games, Gage aligned wide on 88.3% of his passing snaps.
Sadly, Gage’s first year on the Bucs was essentially a disappointment. Nonetheless, he had more than 24.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Moreover, in addition to the wide receivers aligned wide who torched the Cowboys noted above, Chris Moore (65 receiving yards), Treylon Burks (34), Robert Woods (26), Terry McLaurin (58), and Jahan Dotson (52) also had more than 24.5 receiving yards when aligned wide against the Cowboys since Week 13. The bar to clear for Gage to hit his receiving yardage is low. Even though he’s an ancillary option in Tampa Bay’s passing attack, I like his odds of getting home. So, let’s snag another prop that correlates with Brady’s passing yardage over.
Where to bet: Russell Gage 24.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at Caesars Sportsbook