Here we go with our Thursday Night Football prop bets for Week 2. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are projected to shoot out on Thursday night. The Chiefs and Chargers are coming off Week 1 victories while Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert were in midseason form. So, the passing attacks were humming on all cylinders.
The high-octane passing games are essential for the following Chiefs vs. Chargers player props. Additionally, Chargers WR Keenan Allen is ruled out for Thursday. Thus, one of the upcoming TNF props is for a player whose usage should surge in Allen’s absence.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Week 2
Here’s a trio of Chiefs vs. Chargers player props I like for Thursday’s game:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had juice in a productive 2022 debut. Nonetheless, he wasn’t a workhorse. The full-game data probably isn’t meaningful since the Chiefs boat raced the Cardinals. However, through the first half, CEH had six rush attempts for 38 yards, Isah Pacheco carried twice for two yards, and Jerick McKinnon toted the rock twice for six yards. So, he wasn’t a bell-cow, and Pacheco and McKinnon were mixed in.
Further, the Chiefs were a pass-happy offense, slinging it 28 times in the first half. Expanding to include the third quarter is more alarming for CEH’s outlook for rushing yards. Through three quarters, Mahomes aired it out 36 times. Meanwhile, CEH ran the ball only seven times for 42 yards, and Pacheco and McKinnon combined for five rushes for 26 yards. Thus, if the game is close, the Chiefs will likely lean heavily on the pass.
If the game is a blowout in either direction, it’s not ideal for CEH, either. First, if the Chiefs have to play catch-up, they’ll air it out. Second, if the Chiefs steamroll the visiting Chiefs, Pacheco might be the closer. CEH didn’t attempt a run in the fourth quarter in Week 1. Conversely, McKinnon had one carry, and Pacheco ran the ball 10 times for 60 yards in the fourth quarter. As a result, I’m excited to bet under 49.5 rushing yards for CEH.
Where to bet: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 49.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 3.5 Receptions (+125)
For the second of these Thursday Night Football prop bets, let’s take Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 3.5 receptions.
As I highlighted above, the Chiefs passed, passed, and passed some more in Week 1. But, of course, that’s how they operated last year, too. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Chiefs passed at the third-highest rate (62%) in neutral game scripts in 2021. Therefore, last week was an extension of Kansas City’s offensive tendencies in 2021.
Marques Valdes-Scantling is a fresh face in Kansas City’s offense. He hauled in all three of his targets on Mahomes’ 36 passes through three quarters last week, adding one more reception for eight yards in the fourth quarter.
The underlying data was also intriguing for MVS. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), MVS ran the most routes (33) for the Chiefs in Week 1. Moreover, MVS wasn’t just running wind sprints like he used to with the Packers. Instead, MVS had an average depth of target (aDoT) of only 5.5 yards downfield.
Thus, the speedy receiver’s reception over is more intriguing than his yardage over. Finally, MVS should benefit from what I expect to be a back-and-forth shootout played at a breakneck pace.
Where to bet: Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 3.5 Receptions | +125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mike Williams Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The last of these Thursday Night Football prop bets revolves around Mike Williams.
Williams was quiet in Week 1. Unfortunately, he had only two receptions for 10 yards on four targets. Still, he was first for the Chargers with 31 routes. In addition, Big Mike might be a target hog with Allen ruled out for the AFC West showdown.
Williams had played three games without Allen since 2021 (i.e., excluding games without Allen before Herbert was the team’s quarterback). Williams ran 91 routes and had 21 targets, 16 receptions, 223 receiving yards, and 2.45 Y/RR while commanding a target on 23.1% of his routes in those three games.
Unfortunately, Williams has been a boom-or-bust player in his previous four meetings with the Chiefs. He’s had yardage outputs of 14, 49, 108, and 122. Regardless, Williams’ floor should be elevated without Allen soaking up targets. Williams is also no longer used as a vertical-only threat for offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Last year, per PFF, Williams had a 12.0-yard aDoT. And he had a 3.8-yard aDoT in Week 1. Big Mike’s usage for Lombardi decreases his dependency on needing one or two deep receptions to hit his over.
Finally, the passing pie should be larger this week. Herbert attempted 34 passes, and the Chargers’ backs and receivers attempted 27 rushes in Week 1. However, the Chargers led by at least seven points for most of the game. So, if they’re in a less comfortable position this week, Herbert will attempt more passes. As a result, I’m happy to bet on Williams exceeding 65.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Mike Williams Over 65.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Thursday Night Football Predictions & Props
Chiefs vs. Chargers Predictions: Thursday Night Football Picks (Week 2)
NFL Same Game Parlay Picks – SGP Betting For Chiefs vs. Chargers